Friday morning, esteemed groundhog Punxsutawney Phil of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania saw his shadow and predicted six more weeks of winter.
It’s possible that you think that Groundhog Day—the century-old tradition of attaching a meteorological prediction to a rodent’s shadow—is hogwash. It is 71 degrees in Los Angeles, and 44% of California is now experiencing a moderate drought. Six more weeks of winter? California wishes.
Or maybe, you just don’t put much stock into Punxsutawney Phil, who made his 132nd prediction this year. While Phil is the most famous groundhog, he doesn’t have a great track record. There’s some discrepancy about his accuracy, AccuWeather put it as high as 80%, but StormFax Almanac has it as low as 39%.
Rather than ascribing a groundhog prediction to the whole nation, TIME took a more regional approach in its calculation. TIME looked at last year’s predictions and then the temperature reports for National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather stations surrounding the groundhog’s home city. By this rating, the groundhogs can be a certain percent correct or incorrect. In 2017, Phil wasn’t the most accurate groundhog: he was only 36% correct.
Here are eight other groundhogs who, contrary to Phil’s prognostication, predicted an early spring:
1. Grover the Groundhog of Pine Grove, Pa.
Grover of Pine Grove, Pa. did not see his shadow on February 2, according to The Republican-Herald.
There are rival groundhogs in Lancaster County: Mount Joy Minnie, like Phil, saw her shadow, but Octorara Orphie did not, Lancaster Online reported. (That makes the Pennsylvania groundhogs split Phil and Minnie vs. Grover and Orphie, for those of you keeping score.)
3. Sir Walter Wally of Raleigh, N.C.
Wally in Raleigh says spring is on the way, according to ABC 11. Last year, TIME reports, Wally had 68% accuracy, based on the temperature reports at the nearest 539 weather stations.
4. Dunkirk Dave of Dunkirk, N.Y.
Dunkirk Dave did not see his shadow, according to WIBV 4. Last year, however, Dave predicted six more weeks of winter and was only 35% correct for his region, according to TIME.
5. Pierre C. Shadeaux of New Iberia, La.
Not only does Pierre C. Shadeaux have the best name, but he also predicted an early spring, KACT 3 reported. TIME had him with 75% accuracy for his region last year.
6. Chuckles IX the state groundhog of Connecticut
Chuckles IX sworn in as the state groundhog of Connecticut today and prognosticated that spring is on its way. The Hartford Courant covered his eventful swearing in, where he nearly urinated on the mayor.
7. Staten Island Chuck of Staten Island, N.Y.
Staten Island Chuck is the official groundhog forecaster of New York City. His prognostication? Early spring, according to Staten Island Live.
8. Unadilla Bill of Unadilla, Neb.
In 2017, Unadilla Bill had a 83% accuracy rate according to TIME. This year, according to the Unadilla Bill – Groundhog Celebration Facebook page, Bill predicts an early spring.
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