Here’s Who Will Win at the 2018 Golden Globes

The 2018 Golden Globes will air on Sunday, Jan. 8 at 8 p.m. ET. Hosted by Seth Meyers, the 75th annual ceremony will kick off the year’s awards season in earnest, awarding 2017’s best performances in film and television. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which doles out Golden Globes, always seems to have a few surprises up its sleeves, and this year will undoubtedly be no exception. Here are our predictions for who will take home trophies on Sunday night.

Movie Predictions

Best Picture, Drama

Dunkirk | The Post | The Shape of Water | Call Me by Your Name | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This year is one of the most wide-open awards seasons in recent memory, and there’s no clear frontrunner in the Best Picture race. Steven Spielberg’s The Post received a near-unanimous endorsement when it screened for critics, but Guillermo del Toro’s whimsical monster-fish romance, which leads the Globes with seven nominations, has the edge with an awards body that’s trended indie in recent years (see: Moonlight, Boyhood).

Review: Call Me By Your Name and The Shape of Water Fearlessly Display Love

Best Picture, Comedy or Musical

The Disaster Artist | Get Out | The Greatest Showman | I, Tonya | Lady Bird

Despite the fact that Get Out continues to be talked about nearly a year after its release (and notwithstanding the fact that it’s not actually a comedy), Lady Bird‘s momentum feels unstoppable at this point. Still in theaters after a November release, it won a bevy of critics’ association awards in December and its honest, heartfelt story of a mother-daughter relationship continues to win over moviegoers.

Review: Lady Bird Captures the Joy and Pain of Coming of Age in the Suburbs

Best Actress, Drama

Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game | Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water | Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | Meryl Streep, The Post | Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

Three Billboards has been one of the season’s most divisive movies, inspiring a months-long debate about its depiction of a racist cop (Sam Rockwell) and its portrait of small-town America. But the controversy is unlikely to faze the HFPA, which might finally honor Frances McDormand after five previous individual nominations. Sally Hawkins, who won a Golden Globe for 2008’s Happy-Go-Lucky, may prove stiff competition.

Review: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Is a Thin Portrait of Small-Town America

Best Actor, Drama

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name | Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. | Tom Hanks, The Post | Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread | Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Timothée Chalamet made quite a splash this fall with his tender turn as a teenager in love in Call Me By Your Name, winning several honors over heavyweights like Daniel Day-Lewis and Gary Oldman. But Oldman, considered by many to be overdue for awards recognition, has the edge for his studious, prosthetic-assisted depiction of Winston Churchill — unless the HFPA holds a grudge for his repeated criticism of their organization and the Golden Globes.

Interview: Gary Oldman on Winston Churchill, Populism and Harvey Weinstein Allegations

Best Actress, Comedy or Musical

Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul | Margot Robbie, I, Tonya | Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird | Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes | Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker

Saoirse Ronan leads the pack based on both the sheer force of her performance and the Globes’ history of favoring so-called ingenues in the leading actress categories (see: Emma Stone, 2017; Jennifer Lawrence, 2016; Jennifer Lawrence, 2013.) Though the HFPA might pull out a surprise and reward Margot Robbie for her sympathetic portrayal of Tonya Harding (despite considerable groaning about that movie’s tone), Ronan’s third time at the Globes might just be the charm.

Best Actor, Comedy or Musical

Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes | Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver | James Franco, The Disaster Artist | Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman | Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

It’s not hard to imagine the HFPA favoring a Hollywood nice guy like Steve Carell or Hugh Jackman, but the hype around James Franco’s transformation into cult filmmaker Tommy Wiseau — in a movie about Hollywood, the HFPA ‘s favorite genre — makes him the favorite Sunday night. Though it would be an upset, we wouldn’t mind seeing some love for Daniel Kaluuya, whose performance in Get Out deserves recognition.

Interview: Why James and Dave Franco Waited Their Whole Lives to Make a Movie Together

Best Director

Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water | Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk | Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World | Steven Spielberg, The Post

The Golden Globes tend to honor the director of one of the night’s Best Picture winners — at least they they have seven times in the last decade — which would give Guillermo del Toro the edge. (Lady Bird director Greta Gerwig, in a glaring omission, was not nominated). But perhaps this will be the year Christopher Nolan finally gets his due for one of the year’s boldest, most ambitious directorial outings.

Review: Ambitious and Harrowing, Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk Is a Masterpiece

Best Supporting Actress

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound | Hong Chau, Downsizing | Allison Janney, I, Tonya | Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird | Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Laurie Metcalf and Allison Janney appear to be neck and neck in the supporting actress race — a face-off which could yield interesting results come Oscar Sunday. But this is Metcalf’s year: after winning a Tony for A Doll’s House Part 2, she proved herself more than worthy with her performance as a mother struggling to reconcile her love for her daughter with pent-up frustrations about her own life.

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project | Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name | Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water | Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Prognosticators will say that Willem Dafoe is far and away the frontrunner for an Oscar — his first — for his haggard but compassionate motel manager in The Florida Project. But the HFPA, despite seeing an unfinished version of All the Money in the World, admired the film enough to nominate Christopher Plummer alongside lead actress Michelle Williams and director Ridley Scott. A win for Plummer would acknowledge Scott’s impressive eleventh-hour reworking of the film, after Kevin Spacey’s removal, and honor a legendary performer (for a second time) late in his career.

Review: Kevin Spacey’s Loss Is Christopher Plummer’s Gain in All the Money in the World

Best Animated Film

The Boss Baby | The Breadwinner | Coco | Ferdinand | Loving Vincent

Pixar’s track record at the Globes is unassailable (nearly — sorry Cars 2 and 3). Since the inception of this award in 2006, the studio has won six times. Given Coco‘s sweeping of early awards, its likely to continue on its path toward Oscar with a win Sunday night.

Interview: Pixar’s Newest Star, Anthony Gonzalez, Can Do It All — And He’s 12

Best Foreign Language Film

A Fantastic Woman | First They Killed My Father | In the Fade | Loveless | The Square

Swedish filmmaker Ruben Östlund’s Palme d’Or-winning satire has dominated the foreign film conversation since its Cannes premiere. Its sprawling, outrageous send-up of the contemporary art world makes it the frontrunner among the year’s eclectic entries in this category.

Review: The Square Is a Caustically Elegant Satire With No Right Angles

Best Screenplay

The Shape of Water | Lady Bird | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | The Post | Molly’s Game

The otherwise ubiquitous Get Out and Phantom Thread are somehow absent from this crop of nominees. A win for Greta Gerwig’s laugh-’til-you-cry-’til-you-laugh Lady Bird screenplay would help compensate (though only partially) for her own ubiquitous absence among the year’s nominated directors.

Best Original Song

“Home,” Ferdinand | “Mighty River,” Mudbound | “Remember Me,” Coco | “The Star,” The Star | “This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman

The Globes has a tendency to reward songs performed by big pop stars (in recent years: Sam Smith, Common and John Legend, U2, Adele, Madonna, Cher). Benjamin Bratt, who performs this original track from Coco, may not be famous for his pipes (which, not incidentally, are lovely), but the deft hands of songwriters Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez, who won an Oscar for the Frozen sensation “Let It Go,” help carry his performance to the top of this pack.

Best Original Score

Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water | Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread | John Williams, The Post | Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk

This category tends to be a difficult one to predict, but Hans Zimmer’s tense, heartbeat-elevating Dunkirk score plays a crucial role in creating the film’s visceral wartime experience. Plus, it’s been over 15 years since his last Golden Globe, for Gladiator (his first was for The Lion King).

TV Predictions

Best Television Series, Drama

The Crown | Game of Thrones | The Handmaid’s Tale | Stranger Things | This Is Us

The Hulu adaptation of Margaret Atwood’s bestselling dystopian novel swept the Emmys with wins for the show, its star Elisabeth Moss, supporting actor Ann Dowd and writer Bruce Miller. Though Netflix’s Queen Elizabeth series The Crown won top honors at the Globes last year and remains a critical darling, the #MeToo moment will help power The Handmaid’s Tale to a victory this year.

Interview: Margaret Atwood and Elisabeth Moss Discuss The Handmaid’s Tale

Best Television Series, Comedy

Black-ish | The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel | Master of None | SMILF | Will & Grace

Amazon’s The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel may have been conceived long before Hollywood’s current reckoning with sexual harassment, but it still feels timely. The titular hero, a 1950s housewife, decides to pursue a career as a comedian. It stands out both as a hilarious show and a prescient commentary on the long history of sexism in the comedy world. Plus, the HFPA has a history of awarding freshman comedies (like Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, Brooklyn Nine-Nine and Atlanta).

Read More: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel Is a Retro Heroine for Modern Times

Best Actress, Television Drama

Caitriona Balfe, Outlander | Claire Foy, The Crown | Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Deuce | Katherine Langford, 13 Reasons Why | Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale

Fans and critics latched onto Elisabeth Moss’ quiet resilience as an enslaved woman in The Handmaid’s Tale. Her eyes communicated the fear and anger that many women felt in the months following the 2016 presidential election and the subsequent Women’s march. The show was good, but Moss made Handmaid’s Tale the phenomenon it is. Moss earned a number of Golden Globe nominations during her Mad Men years, but never took home the trophy. This year she will.

Interview: Margaret Atwood and Elisabeth Moss on the Urgency of The Handmaid’s Tale

Best Actor, Television Drama

Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us | Freddie Highmore, The Good Doctor | Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul | Live Schreiber, Ray Donovan | Jason Bateman, Ozark

Sterling K. Brown is a sure bet on Sunday night. He’s the best thing on the phenomenon that is This Is Us and deserves the recognition. The HFPA overlooked him last year when he was nominated for The People v. O.J. Simpson, and the Emmys cut off his microphone before he could finish his acceptance speech last fall. Expect his victory to be a tweetable moment.

Review: This Is Us Knows Exactly What It Is and Who It’s For

Best Actress, Television Comedy

Pamela Adlon, Better Things | Alison Brie, GLOW | Issa Rae, Insecure | Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel | Frankie Shaw, SMIL

If there is any justice in this world, the Golden Globes will make up for the fact that Insecure was not nominated for Best Comedy by rewarding writer-actor Issa Rae in the Best Actress category. The HBO series remains one of the smartest things on television and Rae has become an even stronger actor in its second season.

Review: Issa Rae’s Insecure Is the Sharpest Comedy of the Year

Best Actor, Television Comedy

Anthony Anderson, Black-ish | Aziz Ansari, Master of None | Kevin Bacon, I Love Dick | William H. Macy, Shameless | Eric McCormack, Will and Grace

If he was ever going to win this category, Aziz Ansari probably should have taken home the trophy in 2016. This season, the standout episodes of Master of None focused on other actors, like the Denise-centric Thanksgiving episode or “New York, I Love You.” Nonetheless, Ansari will win in this category for breaking new creative ground on his show.

Review: Master of None Knows Exactly What It’s Doing

Best Limited Series

Big Little Lies | Fargo | Feud | The Sinner | Top of the Lake: China Girl

This year’s television presaged the #MeToo moment. Three of the shows in this category grapple with toxic masculinity: Top of the Lake explores the murder of a prostitute, Feud the way in which Hollywood pits women against one another and Big Little Lies domestic violence. But it was Big Little Lies, aided by a powerful performance from Nicole Kidman, that deserves the award. It could have just been a beautifully shot Desperate Housewives. Instead, the show evolved into a thoughtful meditation on female friendship and issues like domestic violence.

Review: Big Little Lies Was Never Just About a Murder. The Finale Proved That

Best Actress, Limited Series

Jessica Biel, The Sinner | Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies | Jessica Lange, Feud: Bette and Joan | Susan Sarandon, Feud: Bette and Joan | Reese Witherspoon, Big Little Lies

The HFPA loves Nicole Kidman (she nabbed Globes for To Die For, Moulin Rouge! and The Hours), and critics loved Big Little Lies. Though this category is the most star-studded of any at the Globes Sunday night, Kidman — who also won at the Emmys — has this award on lock.

Interview: Nicole Kidman on the Triumph of Women in the Big Little Lies Finale

Best Actor, Limited Series

Robert De Niro, The Wizard of Lies | Jude Law, The Young Pope | Kyle MacLachlan, Twin Peaks | Ewan McGregor, Fargo | Geoffrey Rush, Genius

Twin Peaks missed out on a nomination for Best Limited Series, which doesn’t say much for MacLachlan’s chances. Plus Jude Law’s performance in The Young Pope might be just the kind of outré choice that the HFPA loves. But the Globes were early adopters of Twin Peaks: MacLachlan and the series both took home awards in 1991. So maybe nostalgia — and a winningly bizarre performance as both Good Cooper and Bad Cooper — wins out.

Review: The New Twin Peaks Is Strange and Not In a Good Way

Best Supporting Actress, Television Series

Laura Dern, Big Little Lies | Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale | Chrissy Metz, This Is Us | Michelle Pfeiffer, The Wizard of Lies | Shailene Woodley, Big Little Lies

Both Ann Dowd and Laura Dern won Emmys for their respective roles last fall. But Dern’s recent turn in the latest Star Wars film, The Last Jedi, reminded Hollywood just how much they love the veteran actress. This is Dern’s trophy to lose.

Best Supporting Actor, Television Series

Alfred Molina, Feud | Alexander Skarsgård, Big Little Lies | David Thewlis, Fargo | David Harbour, Stranger Things | Christian Slater, Mr. Robot

Big Little Lies will not be stopped, and neither will the Skarsgård clan. This particular Skarsgård stood toe-to-toe with Nicole Kidman for some brutal scenes, which will earn him a Globe to place on his mantel next to the Emmy he won for the same role.