--- title: Donald Trump: 'Prediction Professor' Predicts Impeachment description: The professor who accurately predicted the outcome of the presidential election has a new book that predicts Donald Trump will be impeached canonical: https://time.com/4740923/allan-lichtman-case-for-impeachment-donald-trump/ author: Katie Reilly article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2017-04-14T21:32:41.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-19T07:42:09.192Z article:section: Ideas og:title: How the Professor Who Predicted Trump's Win is Making the Case for Impeachment og:description: "There sure is a lot of smoke, and my own suspicion is there’s some kind of fire" og:url: https://time.com/4740923/allan-lichtman-case-for-impeachment-donald-trump/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf5ad0398383d429d/6988c2eea988cac0286bbbf9/gettyimages-143273619.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 4717 og:image:height: 2653 og:image:alt: TO GO WITH AFP STORY BY MICHAEL MATHESA og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: How the Professor Who Predicted Trump's Win is Making the Case for Impeachment twitter:description: "There sure is a lot of smoke, and my own suspicion is there’s some kind of fire" twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf5ad0398383d429d/6988c2eea988cac0286bbbf9/gettyimages-143273619.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # How the Professor Who Predicted Trump's Win is Making the Case for Impeachment > Sponsored content. 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Named editors include Richard Hall (The Brief), Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs (Inside TIME), Eliza Berman (Worth Your Time), Philip Elliott (D.C. Brief), Justin Worland (Future Proof) and Harry Booth (In the Loop). Health Matters is written by TIME's health desk. #### How do I sign up for a TIME newsletter? Go to time.com/newsletters, choose the newsletters you want and enter your email address. There is no cost and no subscription requirement. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-network-2026q3/newsletters?i=17136bbb-a664-4684-bc71-a374e0ac1ccf&cr=time-nl-network-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Watch President Trump's Inaugural Address [Watch (HLS stream): Watch President Trump's Inaugural Address](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/bL9xqRfb.m3u8) (3:46)  _Published 2017-01-20. Donald Trump delivered his first speech as President of the United States on Friday morning._  by [Katie Reilly](https://time.com/author/katie-reilly/)  ## Katie Reilly Apr 14, 2017 9:32 PM UTC  Allan Lichtman,distinguished professor at American University and author of "The Case for Impeachment" pictured on April 13, 2012 in his office at American University in Washington, D.C. Allan Lichtman,distinguished professor at American University and author of "The Case for Impeachment" pictured on April 13, 2012 in his office at American University in Washington, D.C. Paul J. Richards—AFP/Getty Images  by [Katie Reilly](https://time.com/author/katie-reilly/)  ## Katie Reilly Apr 14, 2017 9:32 PM UTC When [Allan Lichtman](http://www.american.edu/cas/faculty/lichtman.cfm) correctly predicted the [widely unexpected](http://time.com/4563946/election-2016-donald-trump-victory-how/) outcome of the 2016 presidential election, he received a personal note of congratulations from Donald Trump. Months later, the President will soon receive a copy of a new book outlining Lichtman’s [next big prediction](http://time.com/4677042/donald-trump-impeachment-book/): impeachment. “Throughout his career, Trump has avoided accountability,” Lichtman told TIME on Friday. “As president, though, you cannot walk away from accountability. You can’t declare bankruptcy, you can’t just abandon a deal. And the ultimate accountability is impeachment.” Lichtman, an American University history professor who has used a [set of keys](https://www.amazon.com/Predicting-Next-President-White-House/dp/1442269200/ref=sr%5F1%5Fcc%5F1?s=aps&ie=UTF8&qid=1478884069&sr=1-1-catcorr&keywords=allan+lichtman+keys+to+the+white+house) to correctly predict every presidential election since 1982, gained attention last year when he predicted that Trump would win the election and then be impeached. His new book, [_The Case for Impeachment_,](https://www.amazon.com/Case-Impeachment-Allan-J-Lichtman/dp/0062696823) outlines eight possible reasons to impeach Trump, including his [business-related conflicts of interest](http://time.com/4629308/donald-trump-business-deals-world-map/), his team’s connections to Russia and his involvement in previous legal disputes, such as lawsuits against [Trump University](http://time.com/4576543/donald-trump-university-lawsuit-settlement/). In his “most edgy” argument, Lichtman says Trump could be impeached for a “crime against humanity” based on his refusal to take action on [climate change](http://time.com/4703569/trump-budget-epa-climate-change/). “There are so many bases on which Trump can be impeached,” Lichtman said. “That’s one way in which he is more vulnerable to impeachment than any other figure who has been elected for the first time to the presidency of the United States.” The book, which will be released Tuesday, draws comparisons between Trump and the two U.S. presidents who have been [impeached](http://time.com/4711273/donald-trump-impeachment-odds-challenges/) — Andrew Johnson in 1868 and Bill Clinton in 1998 — as well as Richard Nixon, who avoided inevitable impeachment when he resigned. Johnson and Clinton were both impeached by the House of Representatives but acquitted in the Senate. “What might distinguish a Trump impeachment from that of Clinton and Johnson is that the transgressions could be more Nixonian — that is, more serious, more threatening to our constitutional order, our liberties, our freedoms and our national security,” Lichtman said. But [impeachment is a difficult process](http://time.com/4711273/donald-trump-impeachment-odds-challenges/), and the act of actually removing a president from office is even harder. That’s especially true when the president’s own party has control of Congress — as Republicans do now. But Lichtman believes enough Republicans would support impeachment if any concrete evidence surfaced to show Trump’s campaign colluded with Russia to [interfere in the election](http://time.com/4720825/trump-russia-investigation-criticism-questioning/). “I think the Russian connection would be the most likely source of impeachment,” Lichtman said. “There sure is a lot of smoke. And my own suspicion is there’s some kind of fire that’s producing this smoke. Whether it’s serious enough to warrant impeachment, we don’t know yet.” “If the investigations do turn up some serious wrongdoing, I think even Republicans in Congress are not going to overlook it,” Lichtman added, while acknowledging “it’s a steep hill to climb.” If a vote were to take place in the House today, all 193 Democrats and 23 Republicans would need to vote for impeachment in order for it to pass. In the Senate, 19 Republicans would have to side with all 46 Democrats and two independents in order to remove Trump from office. While making the case for impeachment, Lichtman’s book also gives Trump a “blueprint for surviving as president” that includes fully divesting from his business interests, supporting measures to prevent climate change, hiring a fact-checker and firing [chief strategist Steve Bannon](http://time.com/4735735/donald-trump-steve-bannon-downplay/). “I hope he reads this book, and I hope he does change,” Lichtman said. “I am rooting for Trump to some extent because I am a believer in American democracy, and I would much rather see our democracy cherished and protected than see President Trump being removed.” ## Transcript Every four years we gather on these steps to carry out the orderly and peaceful transfer of power. And we are grateful to President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama for the gracious aide throughout this transition. They have been magnificent, thank you. [ APPLAUSE ] Today's ceremony, however, has very special meaning, because today we are not merely transferring power From one administration to another or from one party to another, but we are transferring power from Washington DC and giving it back to you the people. [ APPLAUSE ] [ APPLAUSE ] For too long, a small group in our nation's capital has reaped the rewards of government while the people have borne the cost. Washington flourished But the people did not share in its wealth. Politicians prospered, but the jobs left and the factories closed. The establishment protected itself, but not the citizens of our country. We've made other countries rich, while the wealth, strength and confidence of our country has dissipated over the horizon. But that is the past. And now, we are looking only to the future. [ APPLAUSE ] We assembled here today or issuing a new decree to be heard in every city, in every foreign capital, and in every hall of power. From this day forward, a new vision will govern our land. From this day forward, it's going to be only America first. America first. We will reinforce old alliances and form new ones and unite the civilized world against radical Islamic terrorism which we will eradicate complete from the face of the Earth [ APPLAUSE ] At the bedrock of our politics, we'll be a total allegiance to the United States of America and thru our loyalty to our country, we will rediscover our loyalty to each other. When you open your heart to patriotism, there is no room for prejudice. Together, we will make America strong again. We will make America wealthy again. We will make America proud again. We will make America safe again. And yes Together we will make America great again. Thank you, God bless you, and God bless America. [ APPLAUSE ] Thank you. God bless America. 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