When The Walking Dead returns for its seventh season Sunday, viewers will finally get to see who Negan picked to die during his sadistic game of Eeny, Meeny, Miny, Moe in the closing moments of the season six finale.
The opening scene of the premiere will supposedly show the Saviors leader beating one of the captive Alexandrians to death with the barbed-wire-wrapped baseball bat he has dubbed Lucille, concluding a bloody cliffhanger sequence that Andrew Lincoln — who plays Rick Grimes — said made him “physically sick.”
However, despite fans’ best attempts to figure out who is on the chopping block, the victim’s identity is still largely a mystery. Here are the survival odds of the 11 characters that were at Negan’s mercy.
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Eugene Porter
Likelihood of death: 5%
Eugene finally displayed some courage in the season six finale when he volunteered to drive the RV solo to lead the Saviors on a wild goose chase. The plan didn’t quite work out as expected, but the moment brought his character full circle, which would have made him a prime target to be taken out in any normal TWD episode. However, this is no normal episode.
Rick Grimes
Likelihood of death: 0%
AMC has already released a clip showing that Rick is not the recipient of Negan’s beatdown. Also, he’s Rick Grimes.
Abraham Ford
Likelihood of death: 10%
Although his demise might not have the same emotional impact for viewers, Abraham was definitely a viable option thanks to his swift rise to the status of fan favorite and the fact that he’s already dead in the comic book. But that was before Michael Cudlitz — who plays good ol’ Abe — all but confirmed he is still alive during an interview with Popsugar. While commenting on Denise’s season six arrow-through-the-eye death — the manner in which Abraham dies in the comics — Cudlitz hinted that Abraham and Negan would meet again. “Her death spurs on a whole bunch of other stuff, and then the audience knows that Abraham will continue for a while now,” he said. “Now we get to see what a world with Negan and Abraham both in it will be like.”
Daryl Dixon
Likelihood of death: 15%
Throughout the hiatus, AMC has been dropping hints that the crossbow-wielding Dixon is the one to die. First with a clip of Saviors member Dwight wearing Daryl’s leather vest while riding his motorcycle, and then with a sneak peak of the scene immediately following the kill showing his blanket from the finale lying on the ground in front of a puddle of bloody carnage. However, judging by the show’s spoiler lockdown, this seems to significantly increase his chances of surviving. Not to mention that if Daryl dies, the fans will riot.
Maggie Greene
Likelihood of death: 30%
The Walking Dead has aired gruesome and horrific scenes before, but showing the violent death of a sick pregnant woman would take it to the next level. And it’s hard to imagine Glenn would just sit idly by as this occurred. Could Negan possibly end up taking out both halves of everyone’s favorite couple?
Glenn Rhee
Likelihood of death: 30%
Glenn is the one to die by Negan’s hand in the comic book, making him both the obvious and easy choice. However, the show has deviated from the comics in other significant ways — Daryl is a main character, Judith is still alive, etc. — which means there’s no reason Glenn should be considered a shoo-in. On the other hand, his comic death significantly propels Maggie’s storyline forward in terms of her role as a leader, a narrative that was teased during the group’s season six trip to the Hilltop Colony.
