By Justin Worland
April 14, 2016

Leading meteorologists have projected this year’s Atlantic tropical storm season will return to near average levels after a comparatively quiet season in 2015.

The hurricane season will be influenced by the waning of El Niño, a climate phenomenon that typically suppresses hurricane activity, according to the report by meteorologists Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray of Colorado State University.

Still, extreme cold temperatures currently present in the North Atlantic are associated with a slower hurricane season, the report says. In total, the report projects a total of 20 hurricane days, 12 named storms and two major hurricanes of category three or more in 2016.

Coastal residents experienced a remarkably tame hurricane season last year at least in part due to El Niño. While 11 named tropical storms formed in the Atlantic, not a single one made landfall in the U.S.

Write to Justin Worland at justin.worland@time.com.

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