--- title: Great Barrier Reef is Worse Off Than Thought, Scientists Say description: A mechanism that helps coral prepare for extreme temperature conditions may vanish as average water temperatures rise in the near future canonical: https://time.com/4292505/great-barrier-reef-climate-change/ author: Justin Worland article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2016-04-14T18:02:32.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:55:53.340Z article:section: Science og:title: Great Barrier Reef is Worse Off Than Thought, Scientists Say og:description: A mechanism that helps coral prepare for extreme temperature conditions may vanish as average water temperatures rise in the near future og:url: https://time.com/4292505/great-barrier-reef-climate-change/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd0612145634dad0c/69888eff5f570f00dab20754/coral-reef-bleaching-great-barrier-reef.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 5471 og:image:height: 3077 og:image:alt: coral reef bleaching dead coral og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Great Barrier Reef is Worse Off Than Thought, Scientists Say twitter:description: A mechanism that helps coral prepare for extreme temperature conditions may vanish as average water temperatures rise in the near future twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd0612145634dad0c/69888eff5f570f00dab20754/coral-reef-bleaching-great-barrier-reef.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # The Great Barrier Reef May Soon Be in Worse Shape Than Scientists Thought > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Future Proof: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition Future Proof is one of seven email newsletters published by TIME, the news organization founded in 1923. Making sense of the climate and energy economy. Future Proof examines the forces transforming energy and climate, and what those changes mean for business, technology, policy and the global economy. Senior correspondent Justin Worland goes beyond traditional climate coverage to connect the energy transition to the bigger decisions reshaping companies, markets and society. 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Future Proof is TIME's weekly climate and energy newsletter, written by senior correspondent Justin Worland. It connects the energy transition to the decisions reshaping business, technology, policy and markets. #### Where can I follow the energy transition as a business story? Future Proof covers climate and energy as an economic and business story rather than only an environmental one. It publishes every Friday and is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who writes Future Proof? Justin Worland, a senior correspondent at TIME and an award-winning climate journalist, writes Future Proof. #### Is Future Proof free? Yes. Future Proof is free at time.com/newsletters. ## Video: NASA: A Year in the Life of Earths CO2 [Watch (HLS stream): NASA: A Year in the Life of Earths CO2](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/TPdLINk3.m3u8) (3:10)  _Published 2016-03-09. An ultra-high-resolution NASA computer model has given scientists a stunning new look at how carbon dioxide in the atmosphere travels around the globe._  by [Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Senior Correspondent Apr 14, 2016 6:02 PM UTC  Coral bleaching, Dead coral reef, Maldives Islands, Indian Ocean Coral bleaching, Dead coral reef, Maldives Islands, Indian Ocean Reinhard Dirscherl/ullstein bild— Getty Images  by [Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Senior Correspondent Apr 14, 2016 6:02 PM UTC A biological mechanism that helps coral prepare for extreme temperature conditions may vanish as average water temperatures rise in the near future, making widespread coral death in the Great Barrier Reef more likely, according to new [research](http://science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aac7125). The study, published in the journal _Science_, comes as a global bleaching event caused by warmer than average water temperatures associated with El Niño has sucked the life—and color—out of many of the world’s reefs. The current bleaching event—along with 75% of past episodes—likely benefited from a protective mechanism triggered as temperatures rise gradually, one that likely reduced the quantity of coral that died during bleaching events by 50%. But that protective mechanism will lose its effectiveness in the coming years, even with a sea temperature rise as slight as 0.5 °C (0.9°F), according to the study. And its loss could will likely make it more difficult for coral to survive future bleaching events. “Reefs that lose their thermal protection in the future will degrade faster and stay in a degraded state for a longer period,” said study co-author Juan Ortiz, a marine researcher at the University of Queensland, in a press release. “Reefs that maintain their protection have a better chance of maintaining coral cover.” But even for those coral with the protective mechanism, the threats of bleaching will only grow in the coming years as global warming intensifies. The ongoing bleaching event, which has lasted an unusually long two years, could kill off more than 15% of the world’s coral by the time it ends, most likely in the coming months as El Niño fades. **Read More:** [How Sunscreen Is Helping Destroy Coral Reefs](http://time.com/4080985/sunscreen-coral-reefs/) The death of coral presents a slew of problems both for local communities and for efforts to curb global warming. Coral reefs draw tourists, provide a habitat for fish species and act as a barrier protecting coastlines from storms and flooding. Globally, they store carbon dioxide that would otherwise contribute to the warming of the Earth’s atmosphere. Saving the reefs won’t be easy. Marine scientists say the world’s coral reefs could be severely degraded in a matter of a few decades without dramatic action from governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200 countries [agreed last year](http://time.com/4146764/paris-agreement-climate-cop-21/) to work to keep global temperatures from rising more than 2°C (3.6°F) by 2100, but recent [temperatures spikes](http://time.com/4261719/february-heat-records-climate-change/) suggest warming may be close to hitting that benchmark already. And even a world that is only 2°C warmer may not be all that habitable for restoring coral populations. “You can’t grow back a 500 year old coral in 15 years,” says study co-author Mark Eakin, a coral reef specialist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). “In many cases, it’s like you’ve killed the giant redwoods.” ## Transcript Hi, this is Bill Puttman. I'm a climate scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. What you're looking at is a super computer model of carbon dioxide levels in the earth's atmosphere. The visualization compresses one year of data into a few minutes. [ MUSIC ] Carbon dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas affected by human activity. About half of the carbon dioxide emitted from fossil fuel combustion remains in the atmosphere while the other half is absorbed by natural land and ocean reservoirs. In the Northern Hemisphere, We see the highest concentrations are focused around major emissions sources over North America, Europe, and Asia. [ MUSIC ] Notice how the as doesn't stay in one place. The dispersion of carbon dioxide is controlled by the large scale weather patterns within the global circulation. [ MUSIC ] During spring and summer in the northern hemisphere, plants absorb a substantial amount of carbon dioxide through photosynthesis, thus removing some of the gas from the atmosphere. We see this change in the model and the red and purple colors start to fade. [ MUSIC ] Meanwhile, in the Southern Hemisphere, we see the release of another pollutant, carbon monoxide. This is a gas that's both harmful to the environment, and to humans. During the summer months, plumes of carbon monoxide stream from fires in Africa, South America, and Australia, contributing to high concentrations in the atmosphere. [ BLANK_AUDIO ] Notice how these emissions are also transported by winds To other parts of the world. [ MUSIC ] As summer transitions to fall and plant photosynthesis decreases, carbon dioxide begins to accumulate in the atmosphere. Although this change is expected We're saying higher concentrations of carbon dioxide accumulate in the atmosphere each year. This is contributing to the long term trend of rising global temperatures. [ MUSIC ] The Orbiting Carbon Observatory- 2 or OCO- 2 will be the first NASA satellite mission. To provide a global view of carbon dioxide. OCO2 observations in atmospheric models, like GEOS5, will work closely together to better understand both human emissions and natural fluxes of carbon dioxide NASA. This will help guide climate models to our more reliable predictions of future conditions across the globe. 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