Tonight Could Determine Trump’s Fate

On both sides of the aisle, Tuesday will be a turning point. For Hillary Clinton, it will determine whether she can finally put an end to her more-serious-than-expected primary challenge or reveal deep issues for her candidacy as the slog for delegates continues. Proportional rules mean that even if she loses Ohio and Illinois, her delegate lead would hold—and that’s before her commanding grip on the party’s super-delegates is factored in. But problems with white working-class voters that bubbled to the surface in Michigan last week could raise questions about her chances in a general election. For Bernie Sanders, his path to the nomination is still mathematically challenged, but wins today would increase his bargaining power as he hopes to reshape the Democratic Party.

For Republicans, Tuesday will be the day on which Donald Trump either emerges on the path to win the 1,237 delegates required for the nomination, or does not, sending the party toward a contested convention. After Tuesday’s votes, more than 55% of delegates to the GOP convention will have already been allocated, and barring wins by surprising margins, it will be difficult even for Trump to hit that threshold. It’s the day that will all-but-certainly knock Marco Rubio from the race should he lose Florida, as polls suggest, while John Kasich is battling for his political life in Ohio, where he and Trump are neck-and-neck. For Ted Cruz, it’s a day to prove that his delegate-focused approach is viable, as he seeks to eat into likely Trump victories by focusing on individual districts where he can win delegates.

All of this will become clearer as polls begin to close at 7:30 p.m. EDT.

Trump has racked up nearly $2 billion in “free media.” Why Hillary Clinton’s win in the Northern Marianas matters. And Bernie Sanders is a de facto millionaire.

Here are your must-reads:

Must Reads

Why Tuesday Is A Turning Point For Trump
He’ll either secure his front-runner status, or face a long slog to the convention [TIME]

The End of Marco-mentum
Live by the media narrative, die by the media narrative [New York Times]

Why Hillary Clinton’s Win in the Northern Marianas Matters
It’s all about the delegates, TIME’s Sam Frizell explains

Why Donald Trump Is Turning on John Kasich
Trying to salvage a victory in Ohio [TIME]

Donald Trump’s Complicated Relationship With Jewish Voters
TIME’s Tessa Berenson explores the skepticism

Measuring Donald Trump’s Mammoth Advantage in Free Media
Nearly $2 Billion in earned media [New York Times]

Sound Off

“They’re already calling—I have the biggest people in the party.” — Donald Trump on the Today Show on establishment Republicans falling in line

“This is the guy that Ohio needs to vote for. America is counting on you.” — Former GOP nominee Mitt Romney stumping for John Kasich in Ohio—a man he didn’t endorse, but hopes can deprive Trump of needed delegates

Bits and Bites

Aide Who Helped Shape Christie’s Image Not Returning to N.J. [NJ.com]

Trump Denies There Is Any Violence at His Rallies [TIME]

Sanders Says He Ran as a Democrat for ‘Media Coverage’ [TIME]

Sarah Palin Cancels Trump Event After Husband’s Snow Machine Accident [TIME]

Bernie Sanders Is a De Facto Millionaire [Money]