On to New Hampshire.
Monday night’s Iowa caucuses proved Donald Trump can get voters engaged in political process and to the polls, just not that he can get them all to vote for him. Ted Cruz won handily, motivating Evangelical and libertarian voters to the polls Marco Rubio‘s aides, meanwhile, are calling it a three-man race after their candidate finished a strong third place. His super PAC is up with a new ad making his electability case, arguing supporting any other candidate is a vote for Democrats. Jeb Bush spent thousands of dollars per vote in Iowa, raising doubts about the efficacy of his paid media effort. As for what actually matters, delegates to the GOP convention, the results were nowhere near decisive, with Cruz scoring 8 bound delegates, Trump and Rubio each winning 7, Ben Carson earning 3, and Bush and Rand Paul each earning 1.
Our Principles PAC, the GOP super PAC which spent $2.5 million against Trump in the final 10 days in Iowa, is shifting its focus to South Carolina to prepare a firewall to stop the Granite State favorite. The race in New Hampshire is set to be the final stand for the three governors—Bush, Chris Christie, and John Kasich, who are hoping to supplant Rubio as the establishment answer to Trump and Cruz. All three watched the caucus results from New Hampshire and are hitting the ground running Tuesday. Rubio and Cruz will be forced to maintain their momentum in a state that historically disregards what Iowa does.
Hillary Clinton scored the narrowest of victories over Bernie Sanders in the closest Iowa Democratic caucuses in history. Clinton was awarded 699.57 state delegate equivalents, Sanders was awarded 695.49 state delegate equivalents. (One outstanding precinct hasn’t reported its 2.28 state delegate equivalents.) The results leave them in a delegate tie. Clinton’s victory stalled Sanders’ momentum, reaffirming her front-runner status for the nomination, but may have elongated her already tough New Hampshire odds, as it deprived her of the comeback narrative that drove her last win. Clinton is preparing a firewall in South Carolina and beyond to put an end to the nominating contest.
Kasich disavows his own super PAC ad attacking Rubio. Rubio scores the endorsement of South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. The Iowa caucuses come down to the flip of a coin. And Mike Huckabee and Martin O’Malley make their exit from the race.
Here are your must-reads:
How Ted Cruz Beat Donald Trump in Iowa
TIME’s Alex Altman on how he pulled it off
Clinton Ekes Out the Narrowest of Wins in Iowa
An elusive victory for Clinton, TIME’s Jay Newton-Small reports
The Nation Turns to New Hampshire
The establishment primary heats up [TIME]
Rubio Camp to Establishment Rivals: It’s Over
His team argues it’s a three-man race [TIME]
Donald Trump Leaves Iowa a Loser
TIME’s Philip Elliott on his humbling
How Donald Trump Owns the Old Media And the New Media
A man of television, who uses Twitter to program cable. And the Trump sons are welcome to brunch [BuzzFeed]
“When the sun rises tomorrow, this campaign will take the next step. We will continue to campaign the same way, sitting down person to person, leader to leader, VFW halls to Dunkin Donuts.” — Ted Cruz declaring victory in Iowa
“We finished and I just want to tell you something—I’m just honored. And I want to congratulate Ted” — A humbled Donald Trump conceding defeat in Iowa
Bits and Bites
Sometimes, Iowa Democrats Award Caucus Delegates With a Coin Flip [Des Moines Register]