--- description: Chinese economist Xu Dianqing reckons the figures provided by the National Statistics Bureau could be inflated by almost two percent. title: China's GDP Growth Could Be as Low as 4.3%, Economist Says image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt9ecf57f54e023bed/69887aaef887dcb64fe9450e/gettyimages-505785162.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  * [Business](/section/business/) ## Business Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close # China's GDP Growth Could Be as Low as 4.3%, Top Economist Says by [Simon Lewis](/author/simon-lewis/) ## Simon Lewis Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Jan 27, 2016 8:46 AM CUT  A general view of Qian'an steelworks of Shougang Corporation on January 20, 2016 in Tangshan, China. Shougang Corporation is one of the most largest steel enterprise in China. A general view of Qian'an steelworks of Shougang Corporation on January 20, 2016 in Tangshan, China. Shougang Corporation is one of the most largest steel enterprise in China.Xiaolu Chu—Getty Images by [Simon Lewis](/author/simon-lewis/) ## Simon Lewis Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Jan 27, 2016 8:46 AM CUT Official data last week showing that China’s economy is growing at its [slowest rate](http://time.com/4184678/china-economic-growth-down/ "undefined") in a quarter of a century has investors worldwide concerned. But one Chinese economist reckons the figures provided by the country’s National Statistics Bureau — which have long been treated with some suspicion — could be [inflated](http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2016/01/27/china-gdp-growth-could-be-as-low-as-4-3-chinese-professor-says/ "undefined") by almost 3 percentage points, the Wall Street _Journal_ reports. That would make the outlook even gloomier. Xu Dianqing, an author of several books on China’s economy and economics professor at Beijing Normal University and the University of Western Ontario in Canada, has been sifting through data on the country’s manufacturing sector, which accounts for some 40.5% of the world’s second largest economy. The sector officially grew by 6% during 2015, but Xu believes that number could be wrong “no matter how the number is counted,” the Wall Street _Journal_ quoted him as saying. Monthly figures released by the government that include the output of thermal power stations and factories making railway freight, iron ore, plate glass and steel suggest that many industries contracted significantly, according to Xu. Xu argues that China’s overall GDP growth — barring any other gaps in the official data — was in fact between 4.3% and 5.2% in 2015, compared with the official year-on-year growth rate of 6.9%. After the release of the latest data, the National Statistics Bureau was quick to [head off](http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-01/21/c%5F135032058.htm "undefined") any suggestion that the the growth figures might be overoptimistic, with an official giving a “warning that the use of unofficial methods and incomplete data fail to give a complete picture.” In a possibly unrelated — but still intriguing — twist, the head of the National Statistics Bureau, Wang Baoan, is now being [investigated](http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-01/26/c%5F135047431.htm "undefined") for a “severe disciplinary violation,” Chinese state media said Tuesday, using the Communist Party terminology normally used to refer to corruption probes. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/4195367/gdp-inflated-china-xu-dianqing/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/4195367/gdp-inflated-china-xu-dianqing/"},"headline":"China's GDP Growth Could Be as Low as 4.3%, Top Economist Says","datePublished":"2016-01-27T08:46:53.000Z","dateModified":"2026-02-22T14:28:17.966Z","description":"Economist Xu Dianqing believes the official figure of 6.9% is wrong 'no matter how the number is counted'","url":"https://time.com/4195367/gdp-inflated-china-xu-dianqing/","keywords":["Economy","China","Beijing","Business topic","GDP"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt9ecf57f54e023bed/69887aaef887dcb64fe9450e/gettyimages-505785162.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Simon Lewis","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/simon-lewis/"}],"articleSection":"Business","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt9ecf57f54e023bed/69887aaef887dcb64fe9450e/gettyimages-505785162.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Steel Manufacturing In China","caption":"Steel Manufacturing In China","creditText":"Xiaolu Chu—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/business/","name":"Business"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/4195367/gdp-inflated-china-xu-dianqing/","name":"China's GDP Growth Could Be as Low as 4.3%, Top Economist Says"}}]}] ```