These 5 Facts Explain a Confusing U.S. Presidential Race

6 minute read

The presidential campaign silly season is upon us, and it hasn’t disappointed. But the race to succeed Barack Obama is about to get much more serious. With competition among Republicans getting tougher and the first Democratic debate on October 13, now’s a good time to take stock of the U.S. presidential race. These five facts detail which numbers to pay attention to—and which ones don’t matter.

1. Rise of the Outsiders

Each presidential election sees the rise of at least one “outsider” candidate—think Ralph Nader in 2000, or Ross Perot in 1992. This year we’re blessed with four: Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina and Bernie Sanders.

The American electorate seems more confused than ever about what qualities they want in their candidates. Six months ago, 43 percent of Americans said they valued “new ideas and a different approach” in candidates; 50 percent said they preferred “experience and a proven record.” Today those numbers have reversed—55 percent prefer new ideas over experience, with just 37 percent wanting a leader with a proven track record. The numbers are more striking when you break them down by party. In March, 36 percent of Republicans said they valued new ideas over experience; by September, it was 65 percent.

It’s unclear whether it’s the outsider candidates driving the shift in public opinion, or if it’s shifting public opinion that’s driving these candidates. What is clear is that even if anti-establishment candidates don’t win their party’s nomination, they’ll play a big role in setting the agenda.

(Pew Research Center)

See Bernie Sanders' Career in Photographs

Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Bernie Sanders (R), member of the steering committee, stands next to George Beadle, University of Chicago president, who is speaking at a Committee On Racial Equality meeting on housing sit-ins. 1962.Special Collections Research Center/University of Chicago Library
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
A photo taken on July 22, 2015 of Bernie Sanders and his son is seen in an old clip from an alternative newspaper called the Vermont Freeman in Burlington, VT.The Washington Post/Getty Images
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Bernie Sanders in his office after winning his first election as the mayor of Burlington, Vt. on Sept. 15, 1981.Donna Light—AP
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Bernie Sanders, right, greeted voters at a Burlington polling place on March 1, 1983 in Burlington, Vt.Donna Light—AP
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Bernie Sanders and his campaign celebrating after his mayoral re-election circa 1983 in Burlington, Vt.Courtesy of Bernie Sanders Campaign
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Bernie Sanders recording his singing in a studio Nov. 20, 1987 in Burlington, Vt.Toby Talbot—AP
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Bernie Sanders and his wife Jane O'Meara in Washington circa 1991.Courtesy of Bernie Sanders Campaign
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Bernie Sanders, James Jeffords and Patrick Leahy toast to the passing of the Northeast Dairy Compact on June 14, 2006 in Montpelier, Vt.Toby Talbot—AP
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Bernie Sanders officially announces his candidacy for U.S. Senate on May 19, 2006, at the Unitarian Church in Burlington, Vt. Alden Pelett—AP
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Bernie Sanders and the other members of the Vermont Congressional delegation at the annual lighting of U.S. Capitol Christmas on Dec. 5, 2007 in Washington.Chip Somodevilla—Getty Images
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid speaks during a rally in support of Social Security with Sen. Tom Harkin and Bernie Sanders on March 28, 2011 in Washington.Chip Somodevilla—Getty Images
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Rep. Steve Cohen and Bernie Sanders attend a rally near the reflection pool, held by 350.org to protest the amount of money members of Congress receive from the fossil fuel industry on Jan. 24, 2012. Tom Williams—Getty Images
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Bernie Sanders at the signing ceremony of Veterans' Access to Care through Choice, Accountability, and Transparency Act on Aug. 7, 2014 in Belvoir, Va.Alex Wong—Getty Images
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Bernie Sanders waits to speak at a rally to advocate for an increase in pay to $15 USD per hour, as part of a "Fight for $15" labor effort on April 22, 2015 in Washington.Brendan Smialowski—AFP/Getty Images
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Bernie Sanders shakes Colleen Green's hand as he leaves a town hall meeting on May 11, 2015. in Charlottesville, Va.Jay Paul— Reuters
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Bernie Sanders kisses his wife, Jane O'Meara, before officially announcing his candidacy for the U.S. presidency during an event at Waterfront Park May 26, 2015 in Burlington, Vt. Win McNamee—Getty Images
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Bernie Sanders delivers remarks at a town meeting at the South Church May 27, 2015 in Portsmouth, N.H.Win McNamee—Getty Images
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Bernie Sanders speaks during a news conference to discuss legislation to restore pension guarantees for thousands of retired union workers on June 18, 2015 in Washington.Jim Watson—AFP/Getty Images
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Bernie Sanders kisses his wife Jane O'Meara during a campaign event on Aug. 10, 2015 in Los Angeles.Bloomberg/Getty Images
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Bernie Sanders speaks to a primarily Latino audience during a campaign stop at the Muscatine Boxing Club on Sept. 4, 2015 in Muscatine, Iowa.Bloomberg/Getty Images
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Bernie Sanders and Jerry Falwell Jr., president of Liberty University, listen to a prayer during a Liberty University Convocation on Sept. 14, 2015 in Lynchburg, Va.Bloomberg/Getty Images
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, right, and his wife Jane O’Meara, wave to the crowd as he is announced onstage to speak to supporters during a campaign rally on Sept. 14, 2015 in Manassas, Va.Cliff Owen—AP
Bernie Sanders - Career in Pictures
Bernie Sanders joins Cornell William Brooks in a march with the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) on Sept. 15, 2015 from Selma, Ala. to Washington.Brendan Smialowski—AFP/Getty Images

2. Fundraising: Individual Contributions

The media loves to focus on fundraising totals, because they provide a more comprehensive snapshot than opinion polls of a candidate’s longer-term potential. That’s why you’ll hear a lot about Carson raising $31 million and Sanders raising $25.7 million in Q3. Especially for outsider candidates, these numbers suggest these campaigns have staying power. But fundraising numbers are also evaluated according to expectations. Hillary Clinton, the ultimate insider candidate, still leads the Democratic field with a $28 million Q3 performance, but that’s down 41 percent from the $47.5 million she raked in in Q2.

But here’s the rub: In the past, Q3 fundraising numbers from the year before the election have been awful predictors of a candidate’s staying power. In 2003, Howard Dean raised more than three times the amount the eventual Democratic nominee John Kerry raised; in 2007, Mitt Romney raised more than three times the amount eventual GOP nominee John McCain did, and Hillary Clinton raised $6 million more than Barack Obama. In 2011, Rick Perry outraised Romney by $3 million. These numbers matter—just ask Scott Walker, one of the first casualties of 2016—but take them with a grain of salt.

(International Business Times, Real Clear Politics, NBC News)

3. Fundraising: Mega Donors

With the 2010 Citizens United decision came the rise of the super PAC, funding vehicles that allow mega donors to play an outsized role in campaign financing. In the first six months of 2015, super PACs raised almost $255 million, or nearly double the amount that individual campaigns had raised to that point. In particular, the Koch brothers have established a donor network of more than 200 wealthy conservatives that intends to spend $900 million on the presidential and other elections in 2016.

Super PACs have raised more than $234 million in support of GOP candidates. That’s 70 percent of the $323 million total donated to GOP campaigns so far. Super PACs have also accounted for about $17.4 million for Democrats, or 12.7 percent of nearly $137 million. Jeb Bush is leading all candidates in fundraising with $120 million—and more than 90 percent of that is from Super PACs. To this point, Democrats have relied much less on large donors. Clinton has taken in virtually all the Super PAC money for Democrats, but that’s just $17.1 million of her $92.1 million total haul. Bernie Sanders has raised more than $41.1 million to date without a cent from a super PAC. Who else hasn’t accepted super PAC money? Trump, who is bankrolling himself.

(The News & Observer, The Guardian, The Washington Post)

See Carly Fiorina's Career in Photographs

carly-fiorina-career-in-pictures
Carly Fiorina during a news conference on Dec. 31, 1999 at HP headquarters in Palo Alto, Calif.AP
carly-fiorina-career-in-pictures
Carly Fiorina rang a bell to virtually open the New York Stock Exchange from HP's headquarters on May 6, 2002 in Palo Alto, Calif.Chris Preovolos—AP
carly-fiorina-career-in-pictures
Carly Fiorina, as an adviser to Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, works inside the "Straight Talk Express" on April 24, 2008 in New Orleans.Mary Altaffer—AP
carly-fiorina-career-in-pictures
Carly Fiorina, listens as Sen. John McCain speaks during a town hall-style meeting on May 20, 2008 in Miami.Lynne Sladky—AP
carly-fiorina-career-in-pictures
Carly Fiorina holds a roundtable discussions with reporters in on Nov. 18, 2009 in Washington.Gerald Herbert—AP
carly-fiorina-career-in-pictures
Carly Fiorina and her husband Frank take a tour with Earthfriendly Products vice president, Kelly Vlahakis-Hanks, right, on Nov. 4, 2009, in Garden Grove, Calif.Damian Dovarganes—AP
carly-fiorina-career-in-pictures
Carly Fiorina talks to a potential voter during her visit to a phone bank during her Senate campaign on June 5, 2010 in Gold River, Calif.Rich Pedroncelli—AP
carly-fiorina-career-in-pictures
Meg Whitman, left center, winner of the Republican nomination for governor of California, and Carly Fiorina, the GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate from California, are joined by Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado, left, and California state senator Tony Strickland as they celebrate at a post-primary election celebration on June 9, 2010 in Anaheim, Calif.Reed Saxon—AP
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Carly Fiorina listens to a group of small business owners during a press conference on June 24, 2010 in San Francisco.Eric Risberg—AP
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Barbara Boxer speaks as Republican challenger Carly Fiorina looks on during a debate on the campus of Saint Mary's College on Sept. 1, 2010 in Moraga, Calif.Justin Sullivan—AP
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Gabriel Lerner, center, asks Carly Fiorina, left, a question during the debate with Barbara Boxer who is in Washington, on Sept. 29, 2010 in Pasadena.Anne Cusack—AP
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Carly Fiorina leaves with her husband, Frank, after she campaigned on Oct. 29, 2010 in Menlo Park, Calif.Paul Sakuma—AP
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Carly Fiorina speaks to senior citizens at Leisure World on Oct. 30, 2010 in Seal Beach, Calif.Christine Cotter—AP
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Carly Fiorina at CPAC on Feb. 26, 2015 in National Harbor, Md.Bill Clark—AP
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Carly Fiorina leaves Clear Creek Amana High School after speaking on April 24, 2015 in Tiffin, Iowa.Scott Olson—Getty Images
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Carly Fiorina on June 6, 2015 in Boone, Iowa.Charlie Neibergall—AP
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Carly Fiorina, shakes hands with employees during a tour of Cirtronics on June 10, 2015, in Milford, N.H.Jim Cole—AP
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Carly Fiorina greets fairgoers during a visit to the Iowa State Fair, on Aug. 17, 2015, in Des Moines, Iowa.Charlie Neibergall—AP
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Carly Fiorina marches with her family in the Labor Day parade on Sept. 7, 2015 in Milford, N.H. Kayana Szymczak—Getty Images
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Carly Fiorina mingles amid the crowd following the Presidential debate on Sept. 16, 2015 in Simi Valley, Calif. Frederic J. Brown—AFP/Getty Images
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Carly Fiorina speaks to the media after a national security forum on Sept. 22, 2015 in Charleston, S.C.Sean Rayford—Getty Images
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Carly Fiorina speaks on Sept. 18, 2015 in Greenville, S.C.Sean Rayford—Getty Images

4. Traditional Media & Endorsements

But it’s not Trump’s money that’s the source of his popularity—the real currency propelling him to the top of polls is media attention. Trump has drawn 43 percent of all GOP coverage on network news this year. A top Republican pundit estimates the value of that media attention at roughly $100 million—but Trump has only spent $2 million so far. Say what you will about Trump’s investment record, but that’s just good business.

Since 1980, the single best predictor for determining who will win a party’s nomination has been political endorsements from party elites. Unsurprisingly, Hillary leads all candidates with 153 endorsements. So far, Jeb Bush has racked up 24 endorsements to lead the GOP; he’s followed by Rand Paul (11), Ted Cruz (8), Mike Huckabee (7) and Chris Christie (7). But given the state of the Republican race so far, it looks like the 2016 election cycle may buck that trend.

(MSNBC, FiveThirtyEight)

5. Social Media Growth—Especially for the Olds

Ever since Howard Dean’s surprise rise (and fall) in 2004, pundits have been clamoring over the internet’s potential to swing races one way or another. But though Facebook, Twitter and the like have been around for nearly a decade, it’s only recently that they’ve become staples of Americans’ daily lives. In February of 2005, just 8 percent of Americans internet users used social networking sites—by September 2013, that figure had jumped to 73 percent. Older voters—traditionally the bulwark of the voting electorate—have seen the most dramatic increases. In August 2006, about 5 percent of 50-64 year olds logged on to social media, as did just 1 percent of people over 65. By September 2013, those figures had jumped to 65 percent and 46 percent, respectively. Since 2010, the share of registered voters who follow political figures on social media has more than doubled.

Bottom line? Social media will be more important than ever this election cycle. But we’re still a long ways away from “likes” translating into votes. Otherwise we’d be taking Kanye West’s 2020 presidential announcement much more seriously.

(Pew Research Center (a), Pew Research Center (b))

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