--- title: Psychology: How to Avoid the Lucretius Problem description: Avoid overestimating the validity of what has been recorded canonical: https://time.com/3971872/lucretius-problem-solution/ author: Shane Parrish article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2015-07-31T11:00:03.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-03-31T08:38:15.925Z article:section: Ideas og:title: How Not To Assess Risk og:description: Avoid overestimating the validity of what has been recorded og:url: https://time.com/3971872/lucretius-problem-solution/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt08971f3c9fd46018/69885c6b2dce0118c69e4c7c/lucretius.jpg?branch=production&width=1080&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: Roman poet and philosopher Titus Lucretius Carus (circa 95 - 55 BC). og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: How Not To Assess Risk twitter:description: Avoid overestimating the validity of what has been recorded twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt08971f3c9fd46018/69885c6b2dce0118c69e4c7c/lucretius.jpg?branch=production&width=1080&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # How Not To Assess Risk by [Shane Parrish](https://time.com/author/shane-parrish/) ## Shane Parrish Jul 31, 2015 11:00 AM UTC  Roman poet and philosopher Titus Lucretius Carus (circa 95 - 55 BC). Roman poet and philosopher Titus Lucretius Carus (circa 95 - 55 BC).Spencer Arnold—Getty Images by [Shane Parrish](https://time.com/author/shane-parrish/) ## Shane Parrish Jul 31, 2015 11:00 AM UTC It’s always good to re-read books and to dip back into them periodically. When reading a new book, I often miss out on crucial information (especially books that are hard to categorize with one descriptive sentence). When you come back to a book after reading hundreds of others you can’t help but make new connections with the old book and see it anew. It has been a while since I read [Anti-fragile](http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0812979680/ref=as%5Fli%5Fqf%5Fsp%5Fasin%5Fil%5Ftl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0812979680&linkCode=as2&tag=farnamstreet-20&linkId=IOR7IJKK5RGWCQG5). In the past I’ve talked about an [Antifragile Way of Life](http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2014/10/an-antifragile-way-of-life/), [Learning to Love Volatility](http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2012/11/learning-to-love-volatility/), [the Definition of Antifragility ](http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2014/04/antifragile-a-definition/), [Antifragile life of economy](http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2012/04/anti-fragile-life-of-economy/), and [the Noise and the Signal](http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2012/05/noise-and-signal-nassim-taleb/). But upon re-reading Antifragile I came across **the Lucretius Problem** and I thought I’d share an excerpt. (Titus Lucretius Carus was a Roman poet and philosopher, [best-known](http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2012/03/the-swerve-how-the-world-became-modern/) for his poem [On the Nature of Things](http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0140447962/ref=as%5Fli%5Fqf%5Fsp%5Fasin%5Fil%5Ftl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0140447962&linkCode=as2&tag=farnamstreet-20&linkId=O2RJNASBSWIW4XAP)). Taleb writes: --- > “” --- Taleb brings up an interesting point, which is that our documented history can blind us. All we know is what we have been able to record. We think because we have sophisticated data collecting techniques that we can capture all the data necessary to make decisions. We think we can use our current statistical techniques to draw historical trends using historical data without acknowledging the fact that past data recorders had fewer tools to capture the dark figure of unreported data. We also overestimate the validity of what has been recorded before and thus the trends we draw might tell a different story if we had the dark figure of unreported data. Taleb continues: --- > “” --- So what do we do and how do we deal with the blindness? Taleb provides an answer which is to develop layers of redundancy to act as a buffer against oneself. We overvalue what we have recorded and assume it tells us the worst and best possible outcomes. Redundant layers are a buffer against our tendency to think what has been recorded is a map of the whole terrain. An example of a redundant feature could be a rainy day fund which acts as an insurance policy against something catastrophic such as a job loss that allows you to survive and fight another day. [Antifragile](http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0812979680/ref=as%5Fli%5Fqf%5Fsp%5Fasin%5Fil%5Ftl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0812979680&linkCode=as2&tag=farnamstreet-20&linkId=IOR7IJKK5RGWCQG5) is a great book to read and you might learn something about yourself and the world you live in by reading it or in my case re-reading it. **_This piece originally appeared on_** [**_Farnam Street_**](https://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2015/04/lucretius-problem/)**_._** **Join over 60,000 readers and get a free weekly update via email** [**here**](http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/newsletter/)**.** ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"OpinionNewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/3971872/lucretius-problem-solution/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/3971872/lucretius-problem-solution/"},"headline":"How Not To Assess Risk","datePublished":"2015-07-31T11:00:03.000Z","dateModified":"2026-03-31T08:38:15.925Z","description":"Avoid overestimating the validity of what has been recorded","url":"https://time.com/3971872/lucretius-problem-solution/","keywords":["Psychology","History","Brain","Books"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt08971f3c9fd46018/69885c6b2dce0118c69e4c7c/lucretius.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Shane Parrish","jobTitle":"","url":"https://time.com/author/shane-parrish/"}],"articleSection":"Ideas","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt08971f3c9fd46018/69885c6b2dce0118c69e4c7c/lucretius.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Roman poet and philosopher Titus Lucretius Carus (circa 95 - 55 BC).","caption":"Roman poet and philosopher Titus Lucretius Carus (circa 95 - 55 BC).","creditText":"Spencer Arnold—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/ideas/","name":"Ideas"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/psychology/","name":"Psychology"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/3971872/lucretius-problem-solution/","name":"How Not To Assess Risk"}}]}] ```