Here’s Where to Buy a House In the U.S. That Will Be Resilient to Climate Change

4 minute read

Want to keep the worst impacts of climate change from unfolding in your backyard? You’ll have to be strategic about where you live—which is why we asked climate change experts to name the most geographically resilient places in the country.

Try moving to the Northern Great Plains, they suggested.

The Northernmost states of North Dakota, Montana and Wyoming are the most naturally resilient in the country thanks to cool temperatures and infrastructure, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) official Tim Owen. Though flooding is expected to occur across the U.S., the region faces few other potentially devastating challenges. While temperature spikes may shorten the winter season, the fluctuations are unlikely to be dramatic enough to do real damage to infrastructure (though they could disrupt local ecosystems). In fact, the agricultural sector could actually benefit from longer harvesting seasons.

“The changes are in a direction that doesn’t expose them to the limits of their infrastructure in terms of temperatures,” said NOAA official Ken Kunkel.

To settle on the Northern Tier as the safest place to live, the climate researchers TIME talked to worked through a process of elimination. Some regions, like the Southwest, already endure sweltering heat that’s only expected to worsen in coming decades. Making these high temperatures even harder to bear, experts expect an increase in electricity outages due to growing demand. In places like California and Washington, drought promises to deplete what remains of the states’ fast-disappearing water sources. “The risk of sustained drought is a risk everywhere in the United States,” said Owen. “But it’s more of a concern in the Southwest than anywhere else.”

Still, the climate experts cite heavily populated coastal regions as the top regions of concern. Across the country, sea levels are expected to rise by several feet, and parts of many low-lying cities like Miami and New Orleans could easily be submerged underwater by a strong storm. Climate changes threaten not only to destroy beachfront properties but also to damage infrastructure that would affect those who live miles inland. Infrastructure along coastlines affects drainage from sewer systems and the cost of power and other utilities. “Those are the hidden consequences of climate change that a lot of people haven’t begun to reconcile yet,” said Owen.

Read More: Here’s Where People Are Most Concerned About Climate Change

But there’s another way to think about resilience, climate change experts say. Instead of focusing on a community’s vulnerability to climate change, or lack thereof, you could consider how well a given location can respond to a climate disaster. Using this metric, coastal urban regions tend to fare well because they have more money.

“At the end of the day, the strength of an economy—the income level of a region—dramatically affects the ability of a region to bounce back,” said Stephen A. Hammer, a climate policy expert at the World Bank. Hammer pointed to the response efforts in the New York City region after Hurricane Sandy in 2012 as evidence of the way wealthy cities can recover quickly. While some affected areas along the Eastern Seaboard still haven’t rebuilt entirely, the resource-rich Financial District went back to normal faster.

Places like New York, Los Angeles and Chicago rank among the top-five cities around the world most adaptive to climate change, in part due to their wealth, according to a report from the Grovsner group. The cities have plans to adjust and the money to implement them.

But to a certain degree, the unpredictability of climate change makes the mission of finding a safe haven to settle down an impossible challenge. What may seem like a sure bet today may not be so safe down the road.

What’s important now to consider is long-lasting infrastructure,” said Kunkel. “You can build it now for today’s climate, but you may not be quite in tune to what the climate will be in 50 years.”

See the Most Insane Natural Disasters of 2014

2014 Natural Disaster Niagara Falls Polar Vortex
Polar Vortex The U.S. side of Niagara Falls is pictured in Niagara Falls, N.Y. on Jan. 8, 2014. The frigid air and "polar vortex" affected about 240 million people in the United States and southern Canada.Aaron Harris—Reuters
2014 Natural Disaster Niagara Falls Polar Vortex
California Drought A car sits in dried and cracked earth of what was the bottom of the Almaden Reservoir in San Jose, Calif. on Jan. 28, 2014.Justin Sullivan—Getty Images
2014 Natural Disaster Niagara Falls Polar Vortex
China Smog Tourists walk on the promenade along the bank of the West Lake in heavy smog in Hangzhou city, east China Zhejiang province on Jan. 31, 2014. Zhejiang Daily/Imaginechina/AP
2014 Natural Disaster Niagara Falls Polar Vortex
Washington Mudslide A massive mudslide killed at least eight people and left dozens missing in Arlington, Wash., March 24, 2014.Ted S. Warren—AP
2014 Natural Disaster Niagara Falls Polar Vortex
Chile Earthquake A rescue worker inspects a car caught under a landslide after an 8.2 magnitude earthquake and tsunami hit the northern port of Iquique, Chile on April 2, 2014.Cristian Vivero—Reuters
2014 Natural Disaster Niagara Falls Polar Vortex
Arkansas Tornado Aerial view of the central town after a tornado hit Vilonia, Ark., April 28, 2014. Carlo Allegri—Reuters
2014 Natural Disaster Niagara Falls Polar Vortex
Afghanistan Mudslide An aerial view shows the site of a landslide that buried Abi Barik village in Badakhshan province, northeastern Afghanistan, May 5, 2014. Hundreds of people were killed and 700 families displaced. Rahmat Gul—AP
2014 Natural Disaster Niagara Falls Polar Vortex
Southern California Wildfires A house is consumed by wildfire in San Marcos, Calif. on May 14, 2014. About 500 acres have burned in the San Marcos blaze, fueled by record heat, high winds and dry conditions. At least four other fires advanced in nearby communities. Bill Wechter—Getty Images
2014 Natural Disaster Niagara Falls Polar Vortex
Balkan Floods A Serbian army soldier rows a boat as he searches for people to be evacuated in the town of Obrenovac, southwest of Belgrade, Serba on May 16, 2014. The heaviest rains and floods in 120 years have hit Bosnia and Serbia.Marko Djurica—Reuters
2014 Natural Disaster Niagara Falls Polar Vortex
Lightning Hits One World Trade Center Two bolts of lightning hit the antenna on top of One World Trade Center in Lower Manhattan, New York City on May 23, 2014. Gary Hershorn—Corbis
Yosemite Wildfire Stuart Palley Natural Disasters 2014
Yosemite Wildfire A long exposure image shows the El Portal Fire burning near Yosemite National Park, Calif. on July 27, 2014.Stuart Palley
2014 Natural Disaster Niagara Falls Polar Vortex
Iceland Volcano The Bardarbunga volcano spews lava and smoke in southeast Iceland on Sept. 14, 2014. Bernard Merci—AFP/Getty Images
2014 Natural Disaster Niagara Falls Polar Vortex
Japan Volcano Japan Ground Self-Defense Force personnel and other rescuers arrive to conduct search operations at the ash-covered Ontake Shrine near the summit of Mount Ontake in central Japan on Oct. 4, 2014. Kyodo News/AP
2014 Natural Disaster Niagara Falls Polar Vortex
Hawaii Lava Lava pushes through a fence marking a property boundary above the town of Pahoa on the Big Island of Hawaii, Oct. 28, 2014. U.S. Geological Survey/AP
2014 Natural Disaster Niagara Falls Polar Vortex
Buffalo Snow Storm Storm clouds and snow blow off Lake Erie in Buffalo, N.Y. on Nov. 18, 2014. An autumn blizzard dumped a year's worth of snow in three days on Western New York state, where five people died and residents, some stranded overnight in cars, braced for another pummeling expected later on Wednesday. REUTERS/Lindsay DeDario (UNITED STATES - Tags: ENVIRONMENT TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)Lindsay Dedario—Reuters
2014 Natural Disaster Niagara Falls Polar Vortex
Philippines Typhoon Hagupit A Filipino typhoon victim collects water in front of a damaged home where Typhoon Hagupit hit, Samar Island, Philippines, on Dec. 8, 2014. Francis R. Malasig—EPA

More Must-Reads From TIME

Write to Justin Worland at justin.worland@time.com