--- title: Jihadi John and the Fear Premium: Why Terrorism Works description: Two researchers said the U.S. would have to stop one 9/11-type attack every three years to justify its current counterterrorism spending. canonical: https://time.com/3725924/jihadi-john-counterterrorism-spending/ author: Massimo Calabresi article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2015-02-27T19:27:38.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:59:49.178Z article:section: Politics og:title: How Much Should We Spend to Stop One Terrorist Attack? og:description: Here's what two researchers found. og:url: https://time.com/3725924/jihadi-john-counterterrorism-spending/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt0007091b6fed4ab2/6987811d0b72e33ed56dde09/isis-jihadi-john.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1304 og:image:height: 734 og:image:alt: Alan Henning og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: How Much Should We Spend to Stop One Terrorist Attack? twitter:description: Here's what two researchers found. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt0007091b6fed4ab2/6987811d0b72e33ed56dde09/isis-jihadi-john.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Why Terrorism Works: Jihadi John and the Fear Premium > Sponsored content. 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It explains the politics, personalities and power dynamics behind the headlines, twice a week. #### Where can I get analysis of Washington politics by email? D.C. Brief is TIME's free Washington politics newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. It is written by a TIME senior correspondent who covers the capital full time. #### Who writes TIME's D.C. Brief? Philip Elliott, a senior correspondent at TIME, writes D.C. Brief. #### Is D.C. Brief free? Yes. D.C. Brief is free at time.com/newsletters. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-dcbrief-2026q3/newsletters?i=b9a6a013-94df-4280-9890-5eb21b013ff0&cr=time-nl-dcbrief-2026q3-v1) ## Video: ISIS 'Jihadi John' Named By Media As Mohammed Emwazi [Watch (HLS stream): ISIS 'Jihadi John' Named By Media As Mohammed Emwazi](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/m9SUebEB.m3u8) (1:26)  _Published 2015-02-26. The Washington Post and BBC are both reporting the identity of Jihadi John, arguably the world's most wanted man, is a Londoner named Mohammed Emwazi._  by [Massimo Calabresi](https://time.com/author/massimo-calabresi/)  ## Massimo Calabresi Calabresi is TIME’s Washington bureau chief. Feb 27, 2015 7:27 PM UTC  This frame from a video released by Islamic State militants purports to show 'Jihadi John' before the alleged killing of taxi driver Alan Henning, released on Oct. 3, 2014. This frame from a video released by Islamic State militants purports to show 'Jihadi John' before the alleged killing of taxi driver Alan Henning, released on Oct. 3, 2014. AP  by [Massimo Calabresi](https://time.com/author/massimo-calabresi/)  ## Massimo Calabresi Calabresi is TIME’s Washington bureau chief. Feb 27, 2015 7:27 PM UTC What’s it worth it to keep the world safe from “[Jihadi John](http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/jihadi-john-the-islamic-state-killer-behind-the-mask-is-a-young-londoner/2015/02/25/d6dbab16-bc43-11e4-bdfa-b8e8f594e6ee%5Fstory.html)”? In theory, the vast economic resources and intelligence power of the West should make identifying, tracking and detaining a single, brutal terrorist worth the cost. But ease of travel, availability of low-tech weapons and our inability to identify future threats from the vast pool of potential terrorists make neutralizing bad guys before they become high-profile killers difficult. The calculation becomes even harder when you [realize](http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704130904574644651587677752) the enormous cost of counterterrorism investments and how many lives can be saved in other areas of life for the same money. On the surface, it seems like a simple thing. Mohammed Emwazi, who [was identified](http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/jihadi-john-the-islamic-state-killer-behind-the-mask-is-a-young-londoner/2015/02/25/d6dbab16-bc43-11e4-bdfa-b8e8f594e6ee%5Fstory.html) by the Washington _Post_ Thursday as the ISIS executioner “Jihadi John”, had been questioned and released by British authorities long before he went to Syria to join the group, [according to](http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-31641569) the BBC. Not surprisingly, some are already [asking](http://news.yahoo.com/uk-spies-face-questions-failure-stop-jihadi-john-111000231.html) how such a notorious killer could have slipped through authorities’ hands. For starters, it’s hard to know whom to watch. [Investigations](http://isc.independent.gov.uk/committee-reports/special-reports) into the July 7, 2005 terrorist bombings in London that killed 52 people and injured 700 confirmed that the UK’s domestic security service, MI5, had previously come across some of the members of the plot. But the investigations \[[pdf](http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20120216072438/http://7julyinquests.independent.gov.uk/docs/orders/rule43-report.pdf)\] concluded that the huge amount of threat information before MI5 and the lack of evidence of an imminent threat meant “it would not be right or fair to criticise the Security Service for the fact they did not pay greater attention” to the plotters. Similarly, after the Paris attack at the satirical weekly magazine, _Charlie Hebdo_, French authorities were criticized for not doing a better job tracking the killers beforehand. Both men [had been](http://news.yahoo.com/terror-suspects-in-charlie-hebdo-massacre-were-on-u-s---no-fly--list-212840229.html) on U.S. terrorist watch lists, and the French Prime Minister admitted “[failings](http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/01/09/world/europe/ap-eu-france-attack-missed-opportunities.html)” by intelligence services after the attack. But some [estimates](http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/defence/jihadist-watch-to-cost-8m-a-suspect/story-e6frg8yo-1227017233690) say it costs millions to monitor just one terrorism suspect, let alone the [hundreds](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/12/world/europe/jihadism-born-in-a-paris-park-and-fueled-in-the-prison-yard.html) that French authorities say they would have to track to foil every possible future attacker, assuming one could even create a reliable and useful list of suspects. Some have tried to calculate the total cost of such an effort. A 2014 [study](http://www.cato.org/articles/evaluating-counterterrorism-spending) by John Mueller of Ohio University and the CATO Institute and Mark Stewart of the University of Newcastle in Australia, did a “back of the envelope” estimate to compare the cost of attacks to the cost of prevention. The authors assumed what they say is a common valuation of a human life of $6 million-$7 million and factored in their calculations the consequences of an attack, its likelihood of success, the risk reduction of terrorism measures and their costs. Their conclusion: based on an estimated $75 billion increase in annual counterterrorism spending in the wake of 9/11 by the U.S. government, authorities would have to stop “150 Boston-type attacks per year, 15 London-type attacks each year, or one 9/11-type attack every three years” to justify the expense. Such numbers are more polemical than scientific, of course: dollar costs aren’t the only consequences to factor into the equation. We may decide to pay extra to feel safe from foreign threats, or to fight back against those who directly challenge our political and social structures. We may value humanitarian intervention against terrorists who embrace genocide. Or we may think that the costs of current terrorist attacks could rise dramatically if, for example, bad guys got nuclear, biological or chemical weapons. National security hawks argue that we should pay with diminished privacy to leverage America’s technical superiority in electronic surveillance, which gives a lot of coverage for relatively little money. Mueller points out that the “Transportation Security Administration’s Federal Air Marshal Service and its full body scanner technology together are nearly as costly as the entire FBI counterterrorism budget,” which delivers a regular stream of arrested potential future jihadis. Ultimately, if all we’re doing is paying extra because we’re afraid, though, Mueller’s numbers highlight the premium that fear factor represents. It costs a lot more to protect you from a terrorist attack that is statistically extremely unlikely to kill you than to minimize many [other daily dangers,](http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704130904574644651587677752) like auto accidents, gun deaths and falls by seniors. That of course is the asymmetric idea as far as terrorists are concerned–use cheap but scary methods to trick opponents into costly, ineffectual countermeasures. In other words, terrorism works. See our [cover story](http://time.com/3723588/the-war-on-isis/?pcd=hp-magmod) this week, “The ISIS Trap” for more on the current calculation before the Obama administration. ## Transcript [00:00] As a government, you have been at the forefront of the [00:02] aggression towards Islamic state. That was the first time we [00:06] heard the voice the man known as Jihadi John, who for [00:09] western media would become the face of Isis. Now, he's [00:12] been identified as Mohammed Amwazi. That's according to [00:15] the BBC and the Washington Post, both of which reported [00:19] Emwazi's identity early Thursday. He is a, a man we [00:22] believe from London. Around 27 years of age. We [00:26] don't have. A lot of details about him. The BBC says the [00:30] United Kingdom's MI5 Security Agency identified Emwazi [00:33] as a person of interest since at least 2010 with links to the [00:37] Somalia based Al- Shabaab terrorist group. Close friends of [00:41] Emwazi told the Washington Post he was raised in a [00:43] middle class neighborhood in West London and held a [00:45] degree in computer programming. Speaking the CNN, a [00:48] senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of [00:50] Democracies said [ UNKNOWN ] profile was typical of [00:53] terrorists. Terrorist in general, not just jihadist groups, tend [00:57] to recruit from people who, or tend to be comprised of [01:01] people who are of higher socioeconomic status from the [01:03] norm. People who are more well educated than the norm. [01:06] Shortly after the first video appeared British media [01:09] speculated the executioner's identity may have been [01:11] another man known as Britain's Hip Hop Jihadist. A month [01:15] later the FBI announced they had identified who Jihadi [01:17] John was without giving his name. Both British and [01:20] American officials declined to comment on either of the [01:23] BBC and post stories. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/3725924/jihadi-john-counterterrorism-spending/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/3725924/jihadi-john-counterterrorism-spending/"},"headline":"Why Terrorism Works: Jihadi John and the Fear Premium","datePublished":"2015-02-27T19:27:38.000Z","dateModified":"2026-08-04T07:59:49.178Z","description":"It costs a lot to identify future threats","url":"https://time.com/3725924/jihadi-john-counterterrorism-spending/","keywords":["Terrorism","ISIS","Department of Homeland Security","Charlie Hebdo"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt0007091b6fed4ab2/6987811d0b72e33ed56dde09/isis-jihadi-john.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Massimo Calabresi","jobTitle":"Calabresi is TIME’s Washington bureau chief.","url":"https://time.com/author/massimo-calabresi/"}],"articleSection":"Politics","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt0007091b6fed4ab2/6987811d0b72e33ed56dde09/isis-jihadi-john.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Alan Henning","caption":"Alan Henning","creditText":"AP","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/section/politics/","name":"Politics"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/tag/terrorism/","name":"Terrorism"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/3725924/jihadi-john-counterterrorism-spending/","name":"Why Terrorism Works: Jihadi John and the Fear Premium"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"ISIS 'Jihadi John' Named By Media As Mohammed Emwazi","description":"The Washington Post and BBC are both reporting the identity of Jihadi John, arguably the world's most wanted man, is a Londoner named Mohammed Emwazi.","thumbnailUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/m9SUebEB/poster.jpg?width=720","uploadDate":"2015-02-26T14:55:02.000Z","contentUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/m9SUebEB.m3u8","embedUrl":"https://time.com/3725924/jihadi-john-counterterrorism-spending/","duration":"PT1M26S","potentialAction":{"@type":"SeekToAction","target":"https://time.com/3725924/jihadi-john-counterterrorism-spending/?jw_start={seek_to_second_number}","startOffset-input":"required name=seek_to_second_number"}}] ```