August 28, 2014 7:05 AM EDT

LEANING DEMOCRAT 2016 LEANING REPUBLICAN

In recent presidential contests, the GOP nominee has been handicapped by demographic shifts, as younger and more diverse voters who traditionally lean Democratic became a larger share of the electorate. These trends will continue in 2016, when Republicans will need to hold on to the aging baby-boom vote while making inroads among Hispanics and women.

16% OF 2016 18+ POP

Hispanics

+3.9 MILLION PEOPLE

15% OF 2016 18+ POP.

College-educated women

+3.9 MILLION PEOPLE

6% OF 2016 18+ POP.

Asians

+1.2 MILLION PEOPLE

19% OF 2016 18+ POP

Ages 65+

+4.5 MILLION PEOPLE

47% OF 2016 18+ POP.

Unmarried

+8.2 MILLION PEOPLE

[The following text appears within a chart. Please see your hard copy for actual chart.]

NOTABLE VOTING-GROUP GAINS

Percentage-point gain from previous election, by party

WINNER

% popular vote

LOSER

Ages 18-29

+10

Women

+9

49%

CLINTON

1996

DOLE

41%

Hispanics +14

Women +5

48%

BUSH

2000

GORE

48%

Ages 60+ +7

Suburban +3

51%

BUSH

2004

KERRY

48%

Ages 18-29 +12

Hispanics +14

53%

OBAMA

2008

MCCAIN

46%

Asians +11

Hispanics +4

51%

OBAMA

2012

ROMNEY

47%

SOURCES: U.S. CENSUS; EDISON MEDIA RESEARCH NATIONAL ELECTION POOL

This appears in the September 08, 2014 issue of TIME.

Contact us at editors@time.com.

Read More From TIME

Related Stories

EDIT POST