August 28, 2014

LEANING DEMOCRAT 2016 LEANING REPUBLICAN

In recent presidential contests, the GOP nominee has been handicapped by demographic shifts, as younger and more diverse voters who traditionally lean Democratic became a larger share of the electorate. These trends will continue in 2016, when Republicans will need to hold on to the aging baby-boom vote while making inroads among Hispanics and women.

16% OF 2016 18+ POP

Hispanics

+3.9 MILLION PEOPLE

15% OF 2016 18+ POP.

College-educated women

+3.9 MILLION PEOPLE

6% OF 2016 18+ POP.

Asians

+1.2 MILLION PEOPLE

19% OF 2016 18+ POP

Ages 65+

+4.5 MILLION PEOPLE

47% OF 2016 18+ POP.

Unmarried

+8.2 MILLION PEOPLE

[The following text appears within a chart. Please see your hard copy for actual chart.]

NOTABLE VOTING-GROUP GAINS

Percentage-point gain from previous election, by party

WINNER

% popular vote

LOSER

Ages 18-29

+10

Women

+9

49%

CLINTON

1996

DOLE

41%

Hispanics +14

Women +5

48%

BUSH

2000

GORE

48%

Ages 60+ +7

Suburban +3

51%

BUSH

2004

KERRY

48%

Ages 18-29 +12

Hispanics +14

53%

OBAMA

2008

MCCAIN

46%

Asians +11

Hispanics +4

51%

OBAMA

2012

ROMNEY

47%

SOURCES: U.S. CENSUS; EDISON MEDIA RESEARCH NATIONAL ELECTION POOL

Contact us at editors@time.com.

This appears in the September 08, 2014 issue of TIME.

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