--- description: The unmarried, if the demographic changes transforming the country continue. But which way you lean doesn't matter if you don't turn out title: Who Will Choose the Next President? image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltde093bcdab65f2d0/6988d9b9bc6cfc69913e2a3c/time-logo.jpg?branch=production --- * [U.S.](/section/us/) ## U.S. Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close * [The Answers Issue](/tag/the-answers-issue/) ## The Answers Issue Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close # Who Will Choose the Next President? by [TIME Staff](/author/time-staff/) ## TIME Staff Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Aug 28, 2014 11:05 AM CUT by [TIME Staff](/author/time-staff/) ## TIME Staff Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Aug 28, 2014 11:05 AM CUT LEANING DEMOCRAT 2016 LEANING REPUBLICAN In recent presidential contests, the GOP nominee has been handicapped by demographic shifts, as younger and more diverse voters who traditionally lean Democratic became a larger share of the electorate. These trends will continue in 2016, when Republicans will need to hold on to the aging baby-boom vote while making inroads among Hispanics and women. 16% OF 2016 18+ POP Hispanics +3.9 MILLION PEOPLE 15% OF 2016 18+ POP. College-educated women +3.9 MILLION PEOPLE 6% OF 2016 18+ POP. Asians +1.2 MILLION PEOPLE 19% OF 2016 18+ POP Ages 65+ +4.5 MILLION PEOPLE 47% OF 2016 18+ POP. Unmarried +8.2 MILLION PEOPLE \[The following text appears within a chart. Please see your hard copy for actual chart.\] NOTABLE VOTING-GROUP GAINS Percentage-point gain from previous election, by party WINNER % popular vote LOSER Ages 18-29 +10 Women +9 49% CLINTON 1996 DOLE 41% Hispanics +14 Women +5 48% BUSH 2000 GORE 48% Ages 60+ +7 Suburban +3 51% BUSH 2004 KERRY 48% Ages 18-29 +12 Hispanics +14 53% OBAMA 2008 MCCAIN 46% Asians +11 Hispanics +4 51% OBAMA 2012 ROMNEY 47% SOURCES: U.S. CENSUS; EDISON MEDIA RESEARCH NATIONAL ELECTION POOL ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/3204268/who-will-choose-the-next-president/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/3204268/who-will-choose-the-next-president/"},"headline":"Who Will Choose the Next President?","datePublished":"2014-08-28T11:05:01.000Z","dateModified":"2026-02-21T09:53:59.359Z","description":"The unmarried, if the demographic changes transforming the country continue. But which way you lean doesn't matter if you don't turn out","url":"https://time.com/3204268/who-will-choose-the-next-president/","keywords":["The Answers Issue"],"thumbnailUrl":"","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"TIME Staff","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/time-staff/"}],"articleSection":"U.S.","image":[],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/us/","name":"U.S."}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/the-answers-issue/","name":"The Answers Issue"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/3204268/who-will-choose-the-next-president/","name":"Who Will Choose the Next President?"}}]}] ```