--- title: Iraq: U.S. Air Strikes Against ISIS Could Spark Blowback, Experts Warn description: ISIS has long threatened America openly — will Obama's strikes inspire it to act? canonical: https://time.com/3096348/isis-iraq-barack-obama-blowback/ author: Michael Crowley article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2014-08-10T22:21:49.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T08:05:33.727Z article:section: Politics og:title: Iraq: U.S. Air Strikes Against ISIS Could Spark Blowback, Experts Warn og:description: ISIS has long threatened America openly — will Obama's strikes inspire it to act? og:url: https://time.com/3096348/isis-iraq-barack-obama-blowback/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltc6a48e241d6c4447/69869ef93617605e8890d64f/4533931281.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 5472 og:image:height: 3078 og:image:alt: IRAQ-UNREST-KURDS og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Iraq: U.S. Air Strikes Against ISIS Could Spark Blowback, Experts Warn twitter:description: ISIS has long threatened America openly — will Obama's strikes inspire it to act? twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltc6a48e241d6c4447/69869ef93617605e8890d64f/4533931281.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Experts Warn of Terrorism Blowback From Iraq Air Strikes > Sponsored content. 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It explains the politics, personalities and power dynamics behind the headlines, twice a week. #### Where can I get analysis of Washington politics by email? D.C. Brief is TIME's free Washington politics newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. It is written by a TIME senior correspondent who covers the capital full time. #### Who writes TIME's D.C. Brief? Philip Elliott, a senior correspondent at TIME, writes D.C. Brief. #### Is D.C. Brief free? Yes. D.C. Brief is free at time.com/newsletters. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-dcbrief-2026q3/newsletters?i=7c3d8f5b-23c0-4359-9982-10fcc12bd6f2&cr=time-nl-dcbrief-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Critics Question Whether Obama Has Long-Term Plan In Iraq [Watch (HLS stream): Critics Question Whether Obama Has Long-Term Plan In Iraq](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/GcPTj1Qc.m3u8) (2:13)  _Published 2014-08-09. Obama is admittedly reluctant to commit U.S. troops to another Iraq war, but his critics say the air strikes lack a coherent plan._ by [Michael Crowley](https://time.com/author/michael-crowley/) ## Michael Crowley Aug 10, 2014 10:21 PM UTC  Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga fighters look on as smoke billows from the town Makhmur, about 175 miles north of Baghdad, during clashes with ISIS militants on August 9, 2014 Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga fighters look on as smoke billows from the town Makhmur, about 175 miles north of Baghdad, during clashes with ISIS militants on August 9, 2014 Safin Hamed—AFP/Getty Images by [Michael Crowley](https://time.com/author/michael-crowley/) ## Michael Crowley Aug 10, 2014 10:21 PM UTC The American air strikes against a militant group in Iraq could motivate the fighters to retaliate with terrorist attacks against U.S. civilians, experts warn. President Barack Obama’s air strikes against militants from the group Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS) “could increase the likelihood that ISIS or somebody inspired by ISIS, would strike against the homeland,” says Seth Jones, a terrorism expert with Rand Corp. ISIS has long threatened America openly. In June the group’s leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, warned Americans that “soon enough, you will be in direct confrontation \[with us\].” Last week a spokesman for the group [vowed](http://dailycaller.com/2014/08/08/isis-threatens-america-we-will-raise-the-flag-of-allah-in-the-white-house/#ixzz39vUdXRwt) that “we will raise the flag of Allah in the White House.” Despite that bombastic rhetoric, ISIS has thus far been consumed with its fights in Iraq and Syria, and with capturing territory to form an Islamic caliphate. But counterterrorism officials worry that the fanatical group could now place a higher priority on attacking Americans. Jihadists in online forums and on Twitter are already [calling for](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/iraq-muslim-jihadis-vow-revenge-us-infidels-isis-203330031.html#LWyx3E) terrorist attacks in response to Obama’s intervention in Iraq. The prospect of blowback was on the mind of senior officials even before Obama approved air strikes last week. “That’s one of the downsides of U.S. involvement,” former deputy CIA director Michael Morell [told](http://www.cbsnews.com/news/will-isis-plan-a-911-style-terror-plot-against-the-u-s/) CBS News in June. “The more we visibly get involved in helping the \[Iraqi\] government fight these guys, the more we become a target.” A U.S. intelligence official would not say whether the threat level has escalated, saying the U.S. continues to monitor the known ISIS threat. “ISIS has previously stated its willingness to strike targets outside of the region and the \[intelligence community\] is working in close coordination with our allies to track these threats,” says Brian Hale, spokesman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. In July, Brett McGurk, the top State Department official for Iraq, [told](http://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/McGurk%20Testimony%20072414-Final%20Version%20REVISED.pdf) the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the 30 to 50 suicide bombers per month deployed in Syria and Iraq by ISIS “are increasingly Western passport holders,” and that “it is a matter of time before these suicide bombers are directed elsewhere.” Several experts agreed that attacking ISIS will make the group more eager to strike back against America, but said the threat is hard to calculate — and no reason to avoid taking on the group. “U.S. strikes against ISIS may well raise that group’s interest in carrying out terrorist attacks against U.S. targets,” says Daniel Benjamin, a former top State Department counterterrorism official now at Dartmouth College. “But the significance of that shouldn’t be overstated.” Benjamin questions whether the ISIS threat has increased significantly, given its previously known desire to kill Americans. Regardless, he adds: “We can’t let our policies be held hostage by this concern.” Obama’s strikes this month mark the first direct U.S. attacks on ISIS in its current form. But the U.S. military did battle with the group’s prior incarnation, al-Qaeda in Iraq, during the U.S. occupation of that country in the mid-2000s. AQI never found a way to hit Americans beyond the Iraq battlefield. But since splitting with al-Qaeda, broadening its ambition and declaring itself ISIS — and, more recently, the Islamic State — the group has attracted Westerners whose passports could grant them easy entry to Europe and the U.S. “What is concerning, and which makes this situation different,” warns Jones of Rand Corp., is that large complement of Western fighters, which AQI did not posses. “The connections to this battlefield from the West are stronger than they were a decade ago.” Jones says there’s precedent for the U.S. drawing the attention of a regionally focused terrorist group by targeting its ranks. The attempted 2010 Times Square bomber, Faisal Shahzad, was trained and directed to strike the U.S. by the Pakistani Taliban, which sought revenge for American drone strikes against the group’s leadership. At least one expert on Sunni radical groups doubts that Obama’s strikes make Americans any less safe, however. “I don’t think this changes \[ISIS’s\] calculus,” says Aaron Zelin of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “They are likely planning attacks whether the U.S. conducts targeted air strikes or not. We shouldn’t have reactionary policy when it comes to \[ISIS\] anyway — why would we let them continue to grow just because they aren’t attacking us now?” “In my opinion,” Zelin says, “we should destroy them as soon as possible.” ## Transcript We President Obama announced Thursday that he had authorized air strikes against Isis and humanitarian aid for the Azidis in Northern Iraq, he made it clear he wants US involvement in the country to be minimal. But it's not so clear what his long term plan is. I ran for this office in part to end our war in Iraq and welcome our troops. Troops home. As Commander- in- Chief, I will not allow the United States to be dragged into fighting another war in Iraq. Obama's reluctance to go all- in on Iraq has been in the headlines for days. But while the President who ran on ending the War in Iraq has moved forward with air strikes, his critics are asking: what exactly are his future military plans? If we're gonna have an air campaign, you're not gonna hit. An artillery piece there and a truck over there. That's preposterous. Either do it seriously, or you don't do it at all. These are political gestures, not serious military operations. One of the greatest oxymorons in the world is is limited military operations. Because, inherently military operations can't be limited. For most of those critics the preferred solution is to give weapons and military support to Northern Iraq's Kurdish troops, who have been the main force opposing ISIS. But there might be a reason behind the President's reluctance to put more advanced U. S. weaponry into the country. The Washington Post says the administration is hoping the crisis will finally pressure Iraq's leaders into forming a non- sectarian government once and for all, which Obama thinks is the real long- term solution for the country. Friday, Secretary of State Chuck Hegel said. Country's government should take the lead in combating ISIS saying this is an Iraqi responsibility. This is not a US responsibility. Obama made a similar comment in Thursday's speech. Michael Crowley of Time says there is a precedent for limited military action. The airstrikes Obama ordered on Libya during the country's 2011 civil war. To topple Muammar Gaddafi. Those strikes were also aimed at protecting U. S. interests and staving off a humanitarian disaster. Still, Iraq's leaders aren't expected to hammer out a political agreement for weeks, if ever. 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