--- title: Malaysia Airlines Ukraine Crash: Shootdown Theory description: A dangerous missile, and a dangerous lack of training on how to use it canonical: https://time.com/3006497/malaysia-airlines-ukraine-crash-working-theory-shootdown/ author: Mark Thompson article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2014-07-18T22:15:55.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-01T08:57:53.260Z article:section: Politics og:title: Malaysia Airlines Ukraine Crash: Shootdown Theory og:description: A dangerous missile, and a dangerous lack of training on how to use it og:url: https://time.com/3006497/malaysia-airlines-ukraine-crash-working-theory-shootdown/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt55e15fe9b9361c31/69869c5ad0b6f2d4e530558c/rtxj8zx.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2048 og:image:height: 1152 og:image:alt: A "Buk" anti-aircraft battery launches a ground-to-air missile during the Ukrainian army's "Duel-99".. og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Malaysia Airlines Ukraine Crash: Shootdown Theory twitter:description: A dangerous missile, and a dangerous lack of training on how to use it twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt55e15fe9b9361c31/69869c5ad0b6f2d4e530558c/rtxj8zx.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 video:duration: 02:08 video:published: 2014-07-18 section: world topics: Malaysian Airlines downing, BUK missile system, Ukrainian separatists, radar misidentification, accidental shootdowns, military training, Iraq war friendly fire, Ukraine conflict genre: news analysis, explainer tones: analytical, speculative, measured, cautious emotions: concern (medium), uncertainty (medium), tension (low) sentiment: neutral audience: news readers, current affairs viewers, military and defense followers, general public interested in the MH17 incident organizations: Malaysian Airlines, Ukrainian separatists, Ukrainian military, Russia, U.S. military, British military products: BUK missile system content_suitability: disasters [00:01-02:08]; war [00:42-02:08]; death [00:01-02:08]; violence [01:33-01:42] transcript_source: publisher captions transcript_reviewed: not applicable ---  # Malaysia Airlines Ukraine Crash: A Working Theory of the Shootdown > Sponsored content. 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It explains the politics, personalities and power dynamics behind the headlines, twice a week. #### Where can I get analysis of Washington politics by email? D.C. Brief is TIME's free Washington politics newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. It is written by a TIME senior correspondent who covers the capital full time. #### Who writes TIME's D.C. Brief? Philip Elliott, a senior correspondent at TIME, writes D.C. Brief. #### Is D.C. Brief free? Yes. D.C. Brief is free at time.com/newsletters. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-dcbrief-2026q3/newsletters?i=fe150390-e4cb-4458-8d04-7a94874ab3ab&cr=time-nl-dcbrief-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Was the Malaysian Airlines Plane Shot by Accident? [Watch (HLS stream): Was the Malaysian Airlines Plane Shot by Accident?](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/zb0CANL5.m3u8) (2:08)  _Published 2014-07-18. Was the Malaysian Airlines Plane Shot by Accident?_ Description, summary, key points, chapters, key quotes, questions and transcript, where present, were produced automatically from the video or its captions and were not reviewed. ## Summary The video examines whether the downing of a Malaysian Airlines aircraft could have been an accident. It describes the BUK missile system as requiring substantial training to operate and suggests the Ukrainian separatists operating it may have received training or included former military officers. The speaker argues that separatists under pressure, mistaking a commercial airliner for a military transport, could plausibly have fired by error, citing past accidental shootdowns by professional militaries. ## Key points - The reason behind the downing of this aircraft is unclear, and it may turn out to be any number of things. (00:01) - The speaker says it is entirely plausible, given the circumstances, that the downing was an accident. (00:06) - The BUK system is not something that can be shown to someone in five minutes; it requires a lot of training to interpret radar imagery and make the missile track targets. (00:20) - The separatists may have received additional training from Russia, or had former Ukrainian military officers trained on the system. (00:42) - The separatists had previously had success targeting Ukrainian aircraft, including transport aircraft that resemble commercial airliners in basic shape. (01:01) - In 2003 a U.S. surface-to-air missile battery shot down a British jet at the beginning of the Iraq war. (01:33) - In 1994 U.S. fighter jets shot down two U.S. helicopters over northern Iraq, showing professional militaries can down aircraft accidentally. (01:42) - The speaker argues the separatists were under a lot of pressure and were probably not professionals, making an accidental downing easy to imagine. (01:52) ## Chapters - [00:00 to 00:20] Plausibility of an accidental downing. The speaker states the cause is unclear and that an accident is plausible given the circumstances. - [00:20 to 00:42] Complexity of the BUK missile system. The speaker explains that operating the BUK system requires substantial training and interpretation of radar imagery. - [00:42 to 01:01] Who could have operated the system. The speaker suggests the separatists either received Russian training or included former Ukrainian military officers. - [01:01 to 01:33] Separatists' prior successes and fear. The speaker describes the separatists' earlier success against Ukrainian aircraft and their likely fear when facing an approaching radar image. - [01:33 to 02:08] Precedents of accidental shootdowns. The speaker cites past accidental downings by professional militaries and concludes an accident is easy to imagine. ## Key quotes - [00:01] speaker: "The reason behind the downing of this aircraft is unclear" - [00:06] speaker: "it is entirely plausible, given the circumstances, that this was an accident" - [00:23] speaker: "It's not something you can just sort of show somebody in five minutes how to use." - [01:15] speaker: "And then they see this radar image coming at them from the west" - [01:52] speaker: "Their under a lot of pressure and, and they've had some success" ## Questions this video answers - Was the downing of the Malaysian Airlines plane possibly accidental? [00:06] - How difficult is the BUK missile system to operate? [00:20] - Who might have trained the Ukrainian separatists to use the BUK system? [00:42] - Why might separatists mistake a commercial airliner for a military aircraft? [01:01] - Have professional militaries shot down aircraft by accident before? [01:33] ## Content suitability - disasters [00:01-02:08]: Discusses the downing of a commercial passenger aircraft. - war [00:42-02:08]: Discusses military conflict and surface-to-air missile use in Ukraine and Iraq. - death [00:01-02:08]: Implied loss of life from the aircraft downing, not described in graphic detail. - violence [01:33-01:42]: References past military shootdowns that killed British and U.S. personnel. by [Mark Thompson](https://time.com/author/mark-thompson/) ## Mark Thompson Jul 18, 2014 10:15 PM UTC Was the Malaysian Airlines Plane Shot by Accident? by [Mark Thompson](https://time.com/author/mark-thompson/) ## Mark Thompson Jul 18, 2014 10:15 PM UTC The U.S. military’s top commander in Europe spoke last month at the Pentagon of Russians training pro-Russian separatists from Ukraine. “What we see in training on the east side of the border is big equipment, tanks, APCs \[armored personnel carriers\], anti-aircraft capability,” Air Force General Philip Breedlove said, referring to the Russian side of the Russian-Ukrainian border. “And now we see those capabilities being used on the west side of the border”—inside Ukraine. “Anti-aircraft capability”? Did that mean that Russian separatists inside eastern Ukraine had shot down a Ukrainian helicopter a week earlier, killing nine? “It’s a very good likelihood,” Breedlove responded, “but we haven’t tied the string directly together yet.” There’s also no hard proof yet that Russian separatists inside eastern Ukraine downed Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 on Thursday, killing all 298 aboard. But there is a very good likelihood. Russian and Ukrainian forces also have the kind of Buk missiles believed to have shot down MH17\. A Russian press report said a Ukrainian Buk missile battery near Donetsk shot the airliner down. But the rebels have no air force, which makes one wonder what Ukrainian forces would have been aiming at (they have also failed to shoot at Russian aircraft that have crossed into Ukrainian airspace). A pair of Russian batteries was just across the border. But it’s highly unlikely that a Russian unit went rogue. Evidence is steadily mounting—training, equipment, purported post-shootdown telephone transcripts—that the separatists are responsible. While some elements may prove incorrect, the accumulating weight points at Russian separatists inside eastern Ukraine as the ones who fired the missile. But that doesn’t absolve Moscow. If poorly-trained separatists fired the missile, it shows the dangerous game Russian president Vladimir Putin is playing. He and his nuclear-armed government have been fanning pro-Russian nationalistic fervor in eastern Ukraine, and providing them with weapons, intelligence and other support, U.S. officials say. Apparently, the rebels just got a little out of hand. President Obama made clear Friday who he holds responsible, without saying so. “Over the last several weeks Russian-backed separatists have shot down a Ukrainian transport plane and a Ukrainian helicopter, and they claimed responsibility for shooting down a Ukrainian fighter jet,” he said. “Moreover, we know that these separatists have received a steady flow of support from Russia. This includes arms and training. It includes heavy weapons. And it includes anti-aircraft weapons.” Pentagon officials believe MH17 was most likely shot down by a [Buk](http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-9K37-Buk.html) Mk.2, which NATO calls an SA-11 Gadfly. Each SA-11 launch vehicle carries four 19-foot-long missiles atop a turntable that can hit targets at 60,000 feet. While the 35-year old design has been upgraded, it lacks some of the tracking capabilities of Russia’s newer systems. “The SA-11, which is the one we believe was used to down Flight 17, is a sophisticated piece of technology,” Rear Admiral John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, said Friday. “It strains credulity to think that it could be used by separatists without at least some measure of Russian support and technical assistance.” Whoever was operating the missile mistakenly believed that what turned up on their radar screen was a Ukrainian plane, U.S. defense officials theorize. In the past week, four Ukrainian aircraft have been shot down, including an Antonov AN-26 cargo plane flying at 21,000 feet on Monday. In two of those cases, the Ukrainian government believes the missiles involved were fired from inside Russia. Russian media reported in June that pro-Russian separatists captured at least one Buk missile system. “The Donetsk resistance fighters have captured an anti-aircraft military station,” a Russian television network [said](http://time.com/3001932/malaysia-airlines-ukraine-crash-rebels-denial/) three weeks ago. “The skies above Donetsk will now be protected by the BUK surface-to-air missile complex,” said the headline on the channel’s website. There are plenty of military veterans in the region capable of operating the Buk system, U.S. officials believe, although the shoot down may have exposed just how little they really understood. That flaw—and the fact that the doomed airliner appears to have strayed north of the standard air corridor and ended up flying right over rebel-held territory—seems to have made the shootdown possible. “Some separatists have received some training in these vehicle-borne systems,” Kirby said. “There’s no question about that.” Yet they may not have been trained sufficiently. “The flight was transmitting its assigned transponder code corresponding with its flight plan, and flight tracking data was publicly available on the internet,” Samantha Power, the U.S. ambassador to the UN, told the Security Council Friday. “There was nothing threatening or provocative about MH17.” But while a complete Buk missile battery consists of three vehicles—one carrying the missiles, one for the radar that guides them, and one for the missile commander—the missile-launching vehicle does have its own radar and can launch missiles by itself. If that happened, its crew of three or four may have been unable to, or never trained in, reviewing the airliner’s transponder data declaring their target to be a civilian airliner. “Its built-in radar is normally used to track the target being engaged, but can be operated in a target-detection mode, allowing it to autonomously engage targets that were present in the radar’s forward field of view,” [says](http://press.ihs.com/press-release/aerospace-defense-terrorism/ihs-janes-analysis-capabilities-ukraines-missile-systems) _IHS Jane’s Missile & Rockets_ editor Doug Richardson. “Although it has its own Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) system, this is only able to establish whether the target being tracked is a friendly aircraft. It is the electronic equivalent of a sentry calling out ‘Who goes there?’ If there is no reply, all you know is that it is not one of your own side’s combat aircraft. It would not give you a warning that you were tracking an airliner.” Or attacking one. ## Transcript [00:01] The reason behind the downing of this aircraft is unclear [00:04] and it may turn out to be any number of things. But it is [00:06] entirely plausible, given the circumstances, that this was an [00:10] accident. The [00:20] systems we're talking about so for example the BUK. It's [00:23] not something you can just sort of show somebody in five [00:26] minutes how to use. It has a command post so you need a [00:29] lot of training to interpret the radar imagery, and to actually [00:33] make the missile track the targets. So this is, you know, it's [00:36] not the most complicated system in the world, but it's [00:38] something you, you can't teach somebody. Shortly. If the [00:42] Ukrainian separatists were able to use it. They either [00:44] received additional training presumably from Russia. Or [00:47] perhaps they had military officers that had left the Ukrainian [00:50] military, that had been train on the system. It's quite difficult [00:54] to interpret radar imagery. And you have to put yourself in [00:57] the, in the frame of mind of the, of the operator. Here. [01:01] They've had a lot of success in, targeting Ukrainian aircraft. [01:05] Including transport aircraft. Which, you know, at least in [01:08] terms of basic shape look a, a, a good bit like a commercial [01:11] airliner. So they've had success but they're also scared. [01:15] And then they see this radar image coming at them from [01:17] the west which is where Ukrainian military aircraft would be [01:20] coming from as well. It's entirely possible that with a few [01:23] errors this could happen, and of course even professional [01:26] militaries very successful professional militaries have had [01:29] problems in downing aircraft accidentally. So in 2003. The [01:33] U. S. military surface to air missile battery shot down a [01:38] British jet at the beginning of the, the war in Iraq. In 1994 [01:42] U. S. fighter jets shot down two U. S. helicopters over [01:45] northern Iraq. So it, it, it does happen so you can imagine [01:49] you know, maybe these Ukrainian separatists have, have [01:52] been trained but they're, they're probably not professionals. [01:56] Their under a lot of pressure and, and they've had some [01:58] success and it's really the only success they've, they've [02:01] had over the past few weeks is, is downing these aircrafts [02:04] so it's very easy to imagine the situation where this is [02:06] accidental. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/3006497/malaysia-airlines-ukraine-crash-working-theory-shootdown/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/3006497/malaysia-airlines-ukraine-crash-working-theory-shootdown/"},"headline":"Malaysia Airlines Ukraine Crash: A Working Theory of the Shootdown","datePublished":"2014-07-18T22:15:55.000Z","dateModified":"2026-10-01T08:57:53.260Z","description":"A dangerous missile, and a dangerous lack of training on how to use it","url":"https://time.com/3006497/malaysia-airlines-ukraine-crash-working-theory-shootdown/","keywords":["Terrorism","Tech","Ukraine","russia","Weapons"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt55e15fe9b9361c31/69869c5ad0b6f2d4e530558c/rtxj8zx.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Mark Thompson","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/mark-thompson/"}],"articleSection":"Politics","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt55e15fe9b9361c31/69869c5ad0b6f2d4e530558c/rtxj8zx.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"A \"Buk\" anti-aircraft battery launches a ground-to-air missile during the Ukrainian army's \"Duel-99\"..","caption":"A \"Buk\" anti-aircraft battery launches a ground-to-air missile during the Ukrainian army's \"Duel-99\"..","creditText":"Reuters","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/section/politics/","name":"Politics"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/tag/terrorism/","name":"Terrorism"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/3006497/malaysia-airlines-ukraine-crash-working-theory-shootdown/","name":"Malaysia Airlines Ukraine Crash: A Working Theory of the Shootdown"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"Was the Malaysian Airlines Plane Shot by Accident?","description":"Was the Malaysian Airlines Plane Shot by Accident?","thumbnailUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/zb0CANL5/poster.jpg?width=720","uploadDate":"2014-07-18T21:03:30.000Z","contentUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/zb0CANL5.m3u8","embedUrl":"https://time.com/3006497/malaysia-airlines-ukraine-crash-working-theory-shootdown/","duration":"PT2M8S","potentialAction":{"@type":"SeekToAction","target":"https://time.com/3006497/malaysia-airlines-ukraine-crash-working-theory-shootdown/?jw_start={seek_to_second_number}","startOffset-input":"required name=seek_to_second_number"}}] ```