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Israel’s Gaza Invasion Could Last Months

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As Israel pushed forward Friday with its first ground invasion of Gaza in more than five years, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that a bigger operation was likely to unfold in the coming days and weeks.

“My instructions, and those of the Defense Minister, to the [Israeli Defense Forces], with the approval of the Security Cabinet, are to be ready for the possibility of a significant expansion of the ground operation, and the Chief of Staff and the IDF have prepared accordingly,” Netanyahu said in a Friday speech.

Netanyahu used the address to explain to Israelis why he’s moving forward with a ground war that will put Israeli soldiers in harm’s way and is liable to engender already-mounting international criticism for the innocent lives that will inevitably be lost along the way.

“We chose to commence this operation after we had exhausted the other possibilities,” Netanyahu added, “and with the understanding that without action, the price that we would pay would be much greater.”

The price that both sides will pay is yet unknown. 270 Palestinians have been killed so far in this most recent wave of violence, and more than 2,000 have been injured, while two Israelis have been killed and about 10 Israelis injured. The human cost of the conflict is unpredictable in part because Israel has not yet decided how far it’s going in Gaza, and, therefore, what its exit strategy should be. Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon said Friday that the operation would continue “until it’s necessary and until the quiet returns.”

The main target of Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza are secret tunnels linking it to Israel, like the one Israel says Hamas militants used this week in an attempt to infiltrate and attack it. Still, Yuval Steinitz, Israel’s Minister of Strategic Affairs, said that Israel’s “Operation Protective Edge” could result in Israel taking control of the entire Gaza Strip.

“The tunnels are the target of this operation, but alongside that, I don’t rule out the possibility of addition stages, of Stage B and Stage C, and the expansion of this operation,” Steinitz said in a speech following Netanyahu’s and broadcast on Israel Radio. “We will weigh all options in coordination with the needs of the operation, and even though we’re not interested in it, the possibility of taking control of the entire Gaza Strip to eliminate the possibility of launching missiles from there.”

Some members of Netanyahu’s cabinet, such as Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, have been vocal about their assessments that the only solution in Israel’s eyes is a reoccupation of the Gaza Strip. Israel seized Gaza in the 1967 Six-Day War, and didn’t remove its settlers and soldiers from the region until 2005, nearly 40 years later.

But Azriel Bermant, a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, says that re-taking control of the Gaza Strip is considered an extreme option among Israel’s security policy-making circles, and is probably some combination of bluster and wishful thinking on the part of rightists like Lieberman. Netanyahu, Bermant says, is more “risk-averse” and unlikely to want to make a move that would not only be condemned internationally and lead to casualties on both sides, but could also further complicate things in Gaza.

“The problem with talk of overthrowing Hamas is that you don’t want to leave Gaza in a state of chaos, and you have no idea what will replace it. Given what’s going on in the region, I don’t think anyone really wants to take that risk,” Bermant said, referring to ISIS, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, which has taken control of major swaths of Iraq after pouring over from Syria’s border amidst that country’s ongoing civil war.

Netanyahu is seen domestically as having been patient — if not downright dovish — in his reluctance to launch the ground invasion that many politicians and army top-brass had begun to see as inevitable several weeks ago. But an attempted infiltration Thursday, in which the IDF spotted 13 Palestinians who successfully entered southern Israel through an underground tunnel they had dug from Gaza, made it easier for Israel to chose its moment.

“The last straw was this attempted invasion yesterday,” Bermant adds. “From that point onward Netanyahu must have felt he couldn’t hold back. It was just what he needed, and with rocket strikes continuing, putting almost the entire Israeli population at risk, it all added up to having to start the ground campaign that Netanyahu tried to avoid.”

So far, both Israeli and Palestinian sources say that Israeli soldiers have not made their presence felt in highly populated areas, but have instead focused on destroying tunnels that are along the perimeter of Gaza and Israel. The IDF said in its Hebrew Twitter feed that the ground campaign had some 150 “terror targets” on its list, and Israel Radio reported that 18 tunnels were foremost among these.

The stage B and C that Steinitz referred to could include going into urban areas – Gaza City as well as the strip’s many refugee camps – in search of rocket launchers and rocket stockpiles. Israeli soldiers were sent to do this kind of high-risk, house-to-house combat during Operation Cast Lead in 2008-9, and also in the West Bank during the Second Intifada. Few want to get to a Stage C, which could mean a reoccupation of the Gaza Strip for a period of months, says Dr. Jonathan Spyer, an analyst at the Gloria Center at the IDC Herzliya.

“As of now, they’re not headed that far into Gaza. If it stays focused on the tunnel openings, then they might stay quite close to Gaza’s border. But my sense is that if the rocket fire on Israel continues, it raises the possibility of a further incursion.

“A large element of this is punitive: to punish Hamas in order to build deterrence,” Spyer adds. “But I don’t think there’s any intention of reoccupying Gaza and bringing down Hamas as an authority. Israel has no realistic options in that matter – I don’t think that [Palestinian President] Mahmoud Abbas can just receive the Gaza Strip from Israel on a silver plate. We’re also not going back to 1992 with an open occupation of the Gaza Strip.”

After all, regime change has been tried in the region before – and looking east to Iraq, it seems it rarely turns out well.

Israel's Ground Invasion of Gaza Continues

A Palestinian Christian man from Gaza tries to push the coffin of Jalila Ayad in her grave during her funeral on the small and overcrowded cemetery of the St. Porfirius church in Gaza City, July 27, 2014.
A Palestinian Christian man from Gaza tries to push the coffin of Jalila Ayad in her grave during her funeral on the small and overcrowded cemetery of the St. Porfirius church in Gaza City, July 27, 2014. Oliver Weiken—EPA
Palestinian men gather things they found in the rubble of destroyed buildings on July 27, 2014 in the Shejaiya residential district of Gaza City as families returned to find their homes ground into rubble by relentless Israeli tank fire and air strikes.
Palestinian men gather things they found in the rubble of destroyed buildings on July 27, 2014 in the Shejaiya residential district of Gaza City as families returned to find their homes ground into rubble by relentless Israeli tank fire and air strikes.Marco Longari—AFP/Getty Images
PALESTINIAN-ISRAEL-CONFLICT-GAZA
Palestinians recover the body of a man killed when his home was hit the previous night by Israeli fire in the northern district of Beit Hanoun in the Gaza Strip during an humanitarian truce, on July 26, 2014. Marco Longari—AFP/Getty Images
A Palestinian man walks past destroyed houses in Beit Hanoun northern Gaza Strip, July 26 2014.
A Palestinian man walks past destroyed houses in Beit Hanoun, northern Gaza Strip, July 26 2014.Oliver Weiken—EPA
Palestinian women react amid the destruction in the northern district of Beit Hanun in the Gaza Strip during an humanitarian truce on July 26, 2014.
Palestinian women react amid the destruction in the northern district of Beit Hanoun in the Gaza Strip during an humanitarian truce on July 26, 2014. Marco Longari—AFP/Getty Images
Destruction in Gaza City
A general view of destroyed buildings after Israeli attacks in a part of the Shuja'iyya neighborhood in east Gaza City, July 26, 2014. Oliver Weiken—EPA
Palestinian girls peers from inside a UN school in Jabalia, north Gaza Strip, on July 25, 2014, where they found shelter after escaping from their home.
Palestinian girls peers from inside a UN school in Jabalia, north Gaza Strip, on July 25, 2014, where they found shelter after escaping from their home.Marco Longari—AFP/Getty Images
Smoke from an Israeli strike rises over the Gaza Strip, July 25, 2014.
Smoke from an Israeli strike rises over the Gaza Strip, July 25, 2014. Majdi Fathi—ZumaPress
Israeli APCs drive near the Israeli border with Gaza as the come out of the Gaza Strip July 25, 2014.
Israeli APCs drive near the Israeli border with Gaza as they come out of the Gaza Strip July 25, 2014.Nir Elias—Reuters
Mortar cases are piled at a military staging area near the border with the Gaza Strip, July 24, 2014.
Mortar cases are piled at a military staging area near the border with the Gaza Strip, July 24, 2014. Nir Elias—Reuters
A Palestinian man holds a girl injured during shelling at a U.N.-run school sheltering Palestinians, at a hospital in the northern Gaza Strip on July 24, 2014.
A Palestinian man holds a girl injured during shelling at a U.N.-run school sheltering Palestinians, at a hospital in the northern Gaza Strip on July 24, 2014. Alessio Romenzi for TIME
Blood stains of displaced Palestinians are seen inside the UNRWA school in Beit Hanoun after it has been hit, Gaza Strip, July 24, 2014.
Blood stains of displaced Palestinians are seen inside the UNRWA school in Beit Hanoun after it had been hit, Gaza Strip, July 24, 2014. Alessio Romenzi for TIME
A Palestinian woman stands in front of buildings damaged by Israeli bombardment in the Jabalia district of the northern Gaza Strip on July 24, 2014.
A Palestinian woman stands in front of buildings damaged by Israeli bombardment in the Jabalia district of the northern Gaza Strip on July 24, 2014. Marco Longari—AFP/Getty Images
Relatives hold the bodies of Palestinian children Hadi Abdel Nabi, 3, and one and a-half-year-old Abdel Rahman Abdel Nabi, at the cemetery in Jebaliya refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip, during their funeral, July 24, 2014.
Relatives hold the bodies of Palestinian children Hadi Abdel Nabi, 3, and one and a-half-year-old Abdel Rahman Abdel Nabi, at the cemetery in Jebaliya refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip, during their funeral, July 24, 2014. Lefteris Pitarakis—AP
A young Palestinian girl who got injured when a UN school for refugees was allegedly hit by a Israeli tank shells, lies on a hospital bed in the emergency room of Kamal Adwan hospital in Beit Lahiya, Gaza Strip, July 24, 2014.
A young Palestinian girl who got injured when a UN school for refugees was allegedly hit by a Israeli tank shells, lies on a hospital bed in the emergency room of Kamal Adwan hospital in Beit Lahiya, Gaza Strip, July 24, 2014. Oliver Weiken—EPA
Displaced Palestinians from Beit Hanoun sleep inside the UNRWA school in Jabalia, July 23, 2014.
Displaced Palestinians from Beit Hanoun sleep inside the UNRWA school in Jabalia, July 23, 2014. Alessio Romenzi for TIME
Wounded Israeli soldiers are brought to a helicopter on July 23, 2014 near Kafar Aza, Israel.
Wounded Israeli soldiers are brought to a helicopter on July 23, 2014 near Kafar Aza, Israel. Andrew Burton—Getty Images
Tensions Remain High At Israeli Gaza Border
Soldiers carry the coffin of Sergeant Max Steinberg during his funeral on July 23, 2014 in Jerusalem.Ilia Yefimovich—Getty Images
Comrades of slain Sgt. Max Steinberg are comforting each other at Mt. Herzl cemetery, Jerusalem, July 23,2014.
Comrades of slain Sgt. Max Steinberg are comforting each other at Mt. Herzl cemetery, Jerusalem, July 23,2014.Omer Messinger—NurPhoto//REX USA
Tensions Remain High At Israeli Gaza Border
Smoke pours out of the ground due to an alleged campaign by the Israeli military to fill tunnels originating in Gaza with smoke to discover entrances into Israel on July 23, 2014 near Sderot, Israel. Andrew Burton—Getty Images
Palestinians take cover as warning Israeli air strikes are fired at a nearby building in Gaza City, July 22, 2014.
Palestinians take cover as warning Israeli air strikes are fired at a nearby building in Gaza City, July 22, 2014.Finbarr O'Reilly—Reuters
Women grieve during the funeral of Islamic Brigades fighter Abdalla Ismail al Buheisi, in Deir Al Balah, on the Gaza Strip.
Women grieve during the funeral of Islamic Brigades fighter Abdalla Ismail al Buheisi, in Deir Al Balah, on the Gaza Strip, July 22, 2014.Sergey Ponomarev—The New York Times/Redux
Gaza Strip, Gaza Street: A Palestinian man looks through the window of his house at the buildings damaged  overnight by an airstrike in Gaza City.. ALESSIO ROMENZI for TIME
A Palestinian man looks through the window of his house to buildings damaged by an overnight airstrike in Gaza City, July 22, 2014.Alessio Romenzi for TIME
A mosque destroyed overnight in attacks in Rafah, Gaza.
A mosque destroyed overnight in attacks in Rafah, Gaza, July 22, 2014. Sergey Ponomarev—The New York Times/Redux
The mother of Israeli soldier Tal Yifrah mourns over his flag-covered coffin during his funeral in Rishon Lezion near Tel Aviv, July 22, 2014.
The mother of Israeli soldier Tal Yifrah mourns over his flag-covered coffin during his funeral in Rishon Lezion near Tel Aviv, July 22, 2014.Ronen Zvulun—Reuters
Israeli soldiers evacuate their wounded comrades at an army deployment area near Israel's border with the Gaza Strip, on July 20, 2014.
Israeli soldiers evacuate their wounded comrades at an army deployment area near Israel's border with the Gaza Strip, on July 20, 2014. Jack Guez—AFP/Getty Images
Israeli soldiers stand near their tank while smoke due to airstrikes and shelling rises from Gaza on July 22, 2014 near Sderot, Israel.
Israeli soldiers stand near their tank while smoke due to airstrikes and shelling rises from Gaza on July 22, 2014 near Sderot, Israel. Andrew Burton—Getty Images
Conflict in Gaza
Smoke from Israeli strikes rises over Gaza City, in the Gaza Strip, July 21, 2014. Maysun—Corbis
Palestinian men bury the bodies of a family who was killed after airstrike in Khan Younis, in the Gaza Strip.
Palestinian men bury the bodies of a family who was killed after airstrike in Khan Younis, in the Gaza Strip, July 21, 2014. Sergey Ponomarev—The New York Times/Redux
Palestinian refugees unload mattresses at a United Nations shelter in Rafah, Gaza Strip, July 19, 2014.
Palestinians evacuate a victim from a building that was hit by an Israeli strike in Gaza City, July 20, 2014. Hosam Salem—NurPhoto/Rex
Palestinian refugees unload mattresses at a United Nations shelter in Rafah, Gaza Strip, July 19, 2014.
Palestinian refugees unload mattresses at a United Nations shelter in Rafah, Gaza Strip, July 19, 2014. Sergey Ponomarev—The New York Times/Redux
Palestinians flee the Shujayeh neighborhood during heavy shelling in Gaza City. July 20, 2014.
Palestinians flee the Shujayeh neighborhood during heavy shelling in Gaza City, July 20, 2014.Alessio Romenzi
Palestinian woman gestures as she stands amidst the rubble of her house which police said was destroyed in an Israeli air strike in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip
A Palestinian woman gestures as she stands amidst the rubble of her house which police said was destroyed in an Israeli air strike in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, July 20, 2014. Ibraheem Abu Mustafa—Reuters
A damaged house in Shujaya district in Gaza, seen during a humanitarian cease-fire, July 20, 2014.
A damaged house in Shujayeh neighborhood in Gaza City, seen during a humanitarian cease-fire, July 20, 2014.Alessio Romenzi
Palestinian man holds the hand of a woman, who medics said was wounded in an Israeli air strike, in the northern Gaza Strip
A Palestinian man holds the hand of a woman, who medics said was wounded in an Israeli air strike, in the northern Gaza Strip July 20, 2014. Abed Abu Reyash—Reuters
Relatives of three Palestinians from Abu Muamar family, who medics said were killed in an Israeli air strike, mourn during their funeral in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip
Relatives of three Palestinians from Abu Muamar family, who medics said were killed in an Israeli air strike, mourn during their funeral in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip July 20, 2014. Ibraheem Abu Mustafa—Reuters
Palestinians flee east Gaza neighbourhood
Palestinians boys watch people fleeing from Shuja'iyya neighbourhood in east Gaza City, 20 July 2014. Oliver Weiken—EPA
Palestinians carry a body inside the Shifa Hospital morgue, in Gaza City. July 20, 2014.
Palestinians carry a body inside the Shifa Hospital morgue, in Gaza City. July 20, 2014.Alessio Romenzi
A Palestinian boy, who medics said was wounded by Israeli shelling, receives treatment at al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City July 20, 2014.Ali Jadallah—APA/Landov
Casualties mount in Gaza City, Israel expands ground operation
A doctor cries while standing next to a table with the bodies of four dead children in overflowing morgue of the Shifa hospital in Gaza City, July 20, 2014. Oliver Weiken—EPA
A Palestinian woman wearing clothes stained with the blood of other relatives, who medics said were wounded in Israeli shelling, cries at a hospital in Gaza City
A Palestinian woman wearing clothes stained with the blood of other relatives, who medics said were wounded in Israeli shelling, cries at a hospital in Gaza City July 20, 2014.Mohammed Salemm—Reuters
Palestinians, who medics said were wounded during heavy Israeli shelling, sit at a hospital in Gaza City
Palestinians, who medics said were wounded during heavy Israeli shelling, sit at a hospital in Gaza City July 20, 2014. Mohammed Salem—Reuters
A Palestinian woman, who medics said was wounded by Israeli shelling, receives treatment at al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City, July 20, 2014.APAimages/Rex
Rescue workers enter Shuja'iyya to retrieve dead and wounded
Two Palestinian men carry a white flag as they flee their homes during a brief period of ceasefire requested by local rescue forces to retrieve dead and wounded from the Shuja'iyya neighbourhood in east Gaza City, July 20, 2014.Oliver Weiken—EPA
A Palestinian girl sits in a minibus after fleeing her family's house during heavy Israeli shelling, in Gaza City
A Palestinian girl sits in a minibus after fleeing her family's house during heavy Israeli shelling, in Gaza City July 20, 2014.Suhaib Salem—Reuters
Palestinian woman, who fled her house following an Israeli ground offensive, stays at a United Nations-run school in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip
A Palestinian woman, who fled her house following an Israeli ground offensive, stays at a United Nations-run school in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip July 20, 2014. Ibraheem Abu Mustafa—Reuters
Israeli soldiers fire their weapons during the funeral of their comrade Bnaya Rubel in Holon
Israeli soldiers fire their weapons during the funeral of their comrade Bnaya Rubel in Holon, near Tel Aviv July 20, 2014. Nir Elias—Reuters
Funeral of Israeli soldier Amotz Greenberg
Israeli soldiers carry the coffin of killed Israeli soldier Amotz Greenberg during the military funeral ceremony in the cemetery of Hod Hasharon, Israel, 20 July 2014.Abir Sultan—EPA
Smoke rises during what witnesses said were heavy Israeli shelling at the Shejaia neighbourhood in Gaza City
Smoke rises during what witnesses said were heavy Israeli shelling at the Shejaia neighbourhood in Gaza City July 20, 2014. Mohammed Salem—Reuters
A Palestinian family who fled their homes is en route to seek shelter in a UN school in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip on July 18, 2014.
A Palestinian family who fled their homes is en route to seek shelter in a UN school in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip on July 18, 2014. Oliver Weiken—EPA
PALESTINIAN-ISRAEL-UNREST-GAZA
A Palestinian child along with her family, who fled their home during an Israeli ground offensive, take refuge at a UN school in Gaza City with other families, on July 19, 2014. Mahmud Hams—AFP/Getty Images
Death toll rises in Gaza
Palestinians, who fled their houses following an Israeli ground offensive, at a UN school in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, July 19, 2014. Eyad Al Baba—Apaimages/Polaris
Israeli tanks maneuver outside the Gaza Strip on July 18, 2014.
Israeli tanks maneuver outside the Gaza Strip on July 18, 2014. Ronen Zvulun—Reuters
Israeli soldiers put on their gear on the side of a road across from the Gaza Strip on July 18, 2014.
Israeli soldiers put on their gear on the side of a road across from the Gaza Strip on July 18, 2014.Baz Ratner—Reuters
Israeli soldiers rest inside an armoured personnel carrier outside central Gaza Strip
Israeli soldiers rest inside an armoured personnel carrier outside central Gaza Strip July 19, 2014. Amir Cohen—Reuters
APTOPIX Mideast Israel Palestinians
Israeli forces' flares light up the night sky in the northern Gaza Strip, early Saturday, July 19, 2014. Adel Hana—AP
Multiple rocket launches from a site inside the Gaza Strip firing towards Israel as seen from a lookout point in southern Israel on July 17, 2014.
Multiple rocket launches from a site inside the Gaza Strip firing towards Israel are seen from a lookout point in southern Israel on July 17, 2014.Jim Hollander—EPA
A Palestinian salvages rubble of their destroyed homes after their apartment building was hit by an Israeli missile strike in Gaza City on July 18, 2014.
A Palestinian salvages rubble from a destroyed home after an apartment building was hit by an Israeli missile strike in Gaza City on July 18, 2014.Hatem Moussa—AP
Gaza War 2014 - Funeral
Palestinian relatives mourn during the funeral of eight members of the same family who were killed overnight in an Israeli strike on July 19, 2014 in Beit Lahia, north of the Gaza strip. Hosam Salem—NurPhoto/Corbis
Palestinian mourners gather around the bodies of three siblings of the Abu Musallam family, during their funeral in Beit Lahiya, Gaza Strip on July 18, 2014.
Palestinian mourners gather around the bodies of three siblings of the Abu Musallam family, during their funeral in Beit Lahiya, Gaza Strip on July 18, 2014.Maysun—Corbis
Mideast Israel Palestinians Photo Gallery
A Palestinian inspects a hole made by an Israeli strike at the damaged Inteiz family house in the Shajaiyeh neighborhood of Gaza City, northern Gaza Strip, July 18, 2014.Lefteris Pitarakis—AP
Netream Netzleam holds the body of her daughter Razel, 1, who died in an Israeli air strike on Thursday afternoon, at her funeral in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on July 18, 2014.
Netream Netzleam holds the body of her daughter Razel, 1, who died in an Israeli air strike on Thursday afternoon, at her funeral in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on July 18, 2014.Finbarr O'Reilly—Reuters
Israeli troops move into Gaza
A Palestinian mortician ties a knot around the sheet covering the body of a dead Palestinian man in a morgue in Khan Younis, central Gaza City, July 18, 2014. Oliver Weiken—EPA

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