TIME stocks

Another Record-Breaking Week for U.S. Stock Markets

Dow Climbs Above 17,800 For First Time As Stocks Rise
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Nov. 21, 2014 in New York City. Spencer Platt—Getty Images

It was the fifth-straight week of gains for the U.S. market, reversing a big dip earlier in the year

The U.S. stock market closed out its fifth-straight week of gains with new highs Friday, buoyed by positive economic news from China and Europe.

The People’s Bank of China announced a surprising interest rate cut on Friday — the bank’s first in two years and one that sent international markets higher. Meanwhile, Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, further boosted global investors’ confidence by saying the central bank is prepared to step up efforts to give the struggling eurozone economy a much-needed shot in the arm.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 91 points, or 0.5%, to finish at a new record close of 17,810. The blue-chip index, which also set a new intraday high by flirting with the 17,900-point mark, hit a record close two out of five days this week after recording new all-time high finishes three times last week.

The S&P 500 also posted another record close Friday by rising almost 11 points, or 0.5%, to 2,064. It was the closely-watched index’s third record finish of the week after posting three new records last week, as well.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq composite was up slightly, gaining 11 points, or 0.2%, to finish at 4,713. The tech-heavy index continues to climb to its highest levels since 2000.

One of Friday’s best-performing stocks was auction house Sotheby’s, which jumped nearly 7% following news of its CEO’s departure after a long battle with activist investors.

For the most part, it was a week of moderate gains for the U.S. market. But it did mark the fifth-straight week of positive performance coming on the heels of the best four-week stretch since 2011. Earlier this week, the markets improved on news that Japan’s prime minister would delay tax hikes for 18 months in the hopes of stimulating that country’s sluggish economy.

The Dow Jones and S&P 500 were both up by about 1% on the week, while the Nasdaq gained just 0.5% over the past five days.

Each of the major indices has rebounded sharply after a series of market-wide sell-offs in early October nearly erased all of the year’s gains as investors showed their concerns over the global economy and the possibility of a sooner-than-expected interest rate hike in the U.S.

This article originally appeared on Fortune.com

MONEY stocks

Stocks Go Up. Stocks Go Down. Deal With It.

The best tool for addressing anxiety about the stock market is information. Unfortunately, that isn't always enough.

Like some of our investment advisory clients, I fear the market sometimes. The way I combat that fear is with information. Markets go up, markets go down. Here’s what’s normal. Here’s where we are.

Last month, in conversation with one of my more nervous clients — when I had finished my list of market facts and cycles, when I had emailed my short and long-term charts — she replied, “And I’m supposed to be content with that?”

Essentially, yes. That’s the answer most financial professionals would have, if they’re honest.

I suppose you may find it strange, but that’s the kind of challenge I’m up for. It’s a challenge to try to keep clients calm when markets are anything but calm.

In 2008, many of my friends who are financial advisers were deeply affected by the trauma that clients experienced as markets worldwide experienced the worst decline since the Great Depression. They remain affected by it. Trauma is not too big of a word.

Today, I don’t fear the downturn. I speak.

In a downturn, people’s attention is most focused on sliding markets. They may hear what you have to say, but they may not listen to your various messages: Markets are risky. They go up and down. If you don’t take market risk, you limit your potential for capturing the gains when they do come. If you do take market risk, you’ve got to be able to see that downturns are a part of the deal. Shall I get out my trusty charts now and show you just how common it is for markets to fluctuate?

Probably I’d bore you if I did. What you probably want to know is what’s a good strategy for dealing with a volatile market.

You could move some money out of equities, of course. Or we could layer into the portfolio some exchange-traded funds that continuously move out of the most volatile stocks and into the less volatile ones. Both these moves will limit returns, but will also make the trends less upsetting.

But even if we lessen the throbbing uncertainty, we cannot eliminate it.

No one has overcome market cycles yet, no matter what they promise. Cue the charts.

And here’s the flip side: For all the confidence the clients might have in us, we can’t tell them when the markets will tumble. We can’t tell them when to run for the hills. Because no one can.

I feel I have gone down this road to every end I can find, looking for the analytics, the portfolio theory, the guru, the portfolio construction expertise, the economic underpinning, the macro-down and the bottom-up way of selecting exactly what would be the best globally diversified portfolio. I’ve made my own deal with risk and return. But none of that work changes the simple fact markets do go down periodically. Personally, I am content with that.

But for that client, this is not a comfortable fact.

It’s humbling, really, to have a discussion in which you cannot provide something which is very much wanted.

But it’s a smart discussion to have.

The client told me that when the market goes up again, I have permission to say, “I told you so.”

The market is up nearly 10% since we had that conversation, so I might. But when times are good in the markets, it’s the same as when times are bad: Clients don’t listen.

———-

Harriet J. Brackey, CFP, is the co-chief investment officer of KR Financial Services, a South Florida registered investment advisory firm that manages more than $330 million. She does financial planning for clients and manages their portfolios. Before going into the financial services industry, she was an award-winning journalist who covered Wall Street. Her background includes stints at Business Week, USA Today, The Miami Herald and Nightly Business Report.

MONEY

The Only Chart You Need to See About Record Market Highs

Trader on NYSE Stock Market Floor
Spencer Platt—Getty Images

Media pundits love to make a big deal of new stock market peaks—but they are actually surprisingly common.

The stock market reached new record highs on Monday, with the Dow and S&P 500 indexes closing above 17,613 and 2038, respectively.

As usual, the occasion was cause for skeptics to raise concerns that we are in the midst of a market bubble.

But the headline numbers obscure a simple point: Record market highs are not unusual during a bull market—at all. As shown by the chart below, courtesy of my colleague Pat Regnier, record highs can occur again and again for years before the market tumbles.

Screen Shot 2014-11-11 at 10.36.40 AM
Source: http://ycharts.com/

That’s not to say that another market tumble is completely out of the question. After all, even at the lowest point of the October market slump, stock valuations were at or near historic highs.

But the simple fact of new nominal highs in the market’s major indexes is not by itself reason for concern. As investment adviser and blogger Josh Brown points out in the video below, the market has been hitting new highs about once a month on average over the past 65 years.

Read more on…

 

MONEY Jobs

Don’t Count on Raises Despite Friday’s Jobs Report

Person popping balloon
Getty Images—Getty Images

Despite more Americans finding employment, workers shouldn't expect any big changes in their paychecks just yet.

Workers can be forgiven if they don’t rejoice in Friday’s jobs report.

Employers added 214,000 jobs in October, pushing the unemployment rate down to 5.8%. This is another sign the U.S. economy is starting to get on a roll.

Businesses have added an average of around 230,000 jobs a month since January, when the unemployment started off at 6.6%. Stocks have been hitting all-time highs. And the Federal Reserve just announced that it was ending the third round of its stimulative bond-buying program thanks in part to the fact that the labor market has been improving.

Despite these positive trends, though, there still remains significant slack in the labor market. Millions of discouraged workers who want a job have given up looking — or are working part-time when they prefer full-time employment.

Moreover, the long-term unemployed are still much less likely to find a job now compared to before the 2007-2009 recession, and employees still don’t feel confident enough about their situation to quit their job in search of a high paying one. Meanwhile the unemployment rate lags the pre-recession low by more than a percentage point.

This might help to explain why Americans are still so pessimistic about their personal finances.

Almost three in four Americans think the economy was permanently damaged by the Great Recession, according to research by Rutgers University, which is actually more pessimistic than right after the recession. Moreover, only 37% say their finances are good or excellent shape, per recent Pew Research Center data.

Workers also understand that whatever raises they do get probably won’t outpace inflation. Take the Employment Cost Index, which measures workers salaries and benefits. Before the recession, the ECI rose at a year-over-year rate of more than 3% for about two years. Since 2009, though, the ECI hasn’t jumped above 2.2% (which, to be fair, was last quarter.)

fredgraph

And while the Fed did decide to end its bond-buying — otherwise known as quantitative easing — short-term interest rates remain essentially at zero, with expectations of a small hike potentially put off until well into 2015. By keeping rates so low for so long, the Fed is essentially signaling that consumer demand just isn’t there. Yet consumer demand is an essential ingredient in the recipe for gaining raises.

“We didn’t hear anything that causes us to reconsider our outlook that the Fed will follow a ‘lower for longer’ course when it comes to interest rates,” wrote USAA’s John Toohey in a recent note. “The U.S. recovery from the 2008–09 financial crisis has been slow and at times fragile, so our thinking is that the Fed will not want to risk a setback by raising rates too quickly. What is ending now is the third round of QE since late 2008; after the first two wrapped up, economic gains soon stalled. The Fed has not forgotten this.”

This jobs report seems to be another brick in the slow rebuild of the U.S. economy following the disaster of six years ago. It is encouraging that the Fed feels the economy is strong enough to chug along without it pumping billions of dollars into the financial system each month.

But workers should remember how big a hole we’ve needed to climb out of. Millions are still struggling to get by, or even get a job. And without strong bargaining power, or full employment, workers shouldn’t expect a raise anytime soon.

MONEY stock market

POLL: How Will the Stock Market Do in 2015?

What's your prediction: Bull, bear—or something in between?

MONEY Markets

Are the Media to Blame for Financial Bubbles?

Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO Josh Brown, a.k.a. the Reformed Broker, explains the relationship between media coverage and financial bubbles.

MONEY stocks

How to See the Stock Market Like Warren Buffett Does

Warren Buffett, chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Jeff Kowalsky—Bloomberg via Getty Images

Ultimately, intelligent investors mustn't view stocks as numbers on screens or charts moving up and down, but as businesses.

When I say “stock,” what comes to mind?

If it’s one that you own, do you think of a chart that is hopefully moving upwards? If it’s one you’re thinking about owning, do you think about how a few important numbers and metrics stack up against those of its peers?

One of the greatest investors of all time — the one and only Warren Buffett — looks at stocks in a way that is easy to understand yet incredibly hard to manage. But his strategy is one we should all remember when we think about the stocks we own and the ones we’re thinking about investing in.

The simple wisdom

When Buffett discusses the progress of Berkshire Hathaway’s four biggest individual stock holdings — Wells Fargo, Coca-Cola, American Express, and IBM — in his latest annual letter to shareholders, at no point does he mention their price.

Instead, he speaks of two critical things: Berkshire’s ownership stake in the companies themselves and how much of their bottom-line earnings are actually available to Berkshire because of that stake.

Berkshire Hathaway’s ownership of each of the big four has grown over the last few years thanks to its purchase of larger positions in Wells Fargo and IBM plus the share repurchase efforts of the management teams at Coca-Cola and American Express.

youll-never-see-your-stocks-the-same-way-again-1_large

Although those slight increases in ownership may not raise any eyebrows, dominate headlines, or even inspire a Tweet, consider Buffett’s own words:

If you think tenths of a percent aren’t important, ponder this math: For the four companies in aggregate, each increase of one-tenth of a percent in our share of their equity raises Berkshire’s share of their annual earnings by $50 million.

And that brings us to our second point: It isn’t just the ownership stake that matters, but the actual results of the company that is owned. Buffett went on to say:

The four companies possess excellent businesses and are run by managers who are both talented and shareholder-oriented. At Berkshire, we much prefer owning a non-controlling but substantial portion of a wonderful company to owning 100% of a so-so business; it’s better to have a partial interest in the Hope diamond than to own all of a rhinestone.

As a result of both increased ownership and the continued success of Buffett’s “Big Four,” the portion of earnings available to Berkshire — although only the dividends paid out show up on its financial statements — has grown dramatically since 2011:

youll-never-see-your-stocks-the-same-way-again-2_large

But this growth is nothing new. In his 2011 letter to shareholders, Buffett said:

We expect the combined earnings of the four — and their dividends as well — to increase in 2012 and, for that matter, almost every year for a long time to come. A decade from now, our current holdings of the four companies might well account for earnings of $7 billion, of which $2 billion in dividends would come to us.

And while the earnings growth of the Big Four may not continue at its recent pace of more than 15% annually, $7 billion may even be a dramatic understatement.

The key takeaway

As Buffett’s famed mentor Benjamin Graham said in his seminal book The Intelligent Investor: “Investment is most intelligent when it is most businesslike.”

Ultimately, intelligent investors mustn’t view stocks as numbers on screens or charts moving up and down, but as businesses. We must largely ignore movements in stock prices and evaluate the fundamental business dynamics, knowing that over time stock prices will reflect changes in underlying fundamentals and the results of the business.

For example, since Chipotle CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC. CMG -0.7468% went public on Jan. 26, 2006, its stock has moved up or down by 5% roughly once every four weeks, or 132 times. But those investors who have patiently waited, ignoring the price gyrations and trusting in the company’s hugely successful business, would have seen a $1,000 investment grow to nearly $14,000 at the time of writing.

Examples like this show why Buffett once remarked, “The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient.”

Does this mean you should simply pour money into great businesses? No, because, as Buffett has also said, “A business with terrific economics can be a bad investment if the price paid is excessive.”

But we must see that whenever we make an investment, we must always consider it part-ownership in a company, not simply a stock. Buffett does, and so should you and I.

TIME Economy

How We Underestimated the ‘Black Tuesday’ Stock Market Crash

Black Tuesday
From the Nov. 4, 1929, issue of TIME TIME

The "Black Tuesday" stock market crash that precipitated the Great Depression happened on this day 85 years ago

It was pretty impossible not to notice that something bad had happened: in the days leading up to Oct. 29, 1929, the stock market was already reeling from a series of smaller sell-offs leading up to “Black Tuesday,” the day commonly used to mark the onset of the Great Depression.

But with only a few days of hindsight to put that event into perspective, it was pretty easy not to see how bad things were.

TIME was one of the outlets that made that very miscalculation. Reporting on the stock market in a Nov. 4, 1929, article, TIME recounted that the liquidation of stocks that day “might technically be termed orderly but was certainly extremely depressing.” (That take now seems ironically apt.) But the sell-off was balanced out by plenty of “don’t panic” speechifying — President Hoover said that Industry in the nation was “sound.” By the end of the day, TIME reported, “it seemed again that the worst was past.”

A move by the country’s biggest bankers to shore up the market by purchasing stocks had, it appeared, worked. Along with the lack of hindsight, that effort was partly to blame for the miscalculation. For example, a few days before Oct. 29, the broker Richard F. Whitney had personally stopped a panic by buying shares of U.S. Steel at 15 points above its market value; at a time when the whole banking industry seemed ready to take such extraordinary measures to save the economy, and when the market had done so well for so many years, optimism would have been easy. (Whitney later became president of the New York Stock Exchange. After that, in 1938, he went to jail for grand larceny.)

“Hysteria, it was hoped, had met its master in the Banking Power of the U.S.,” TIME wrote. That quote would later make it into TIME’s 75th-anniversary run-down of the most off-the-mark statements in the magazine’s history, alongside predictions that war would end in the 20th century and the sincere belief that the media would stay out of Bill Clinton’s personal life.

Even a week after the crash, when the economy was the Nov. 11, 1929, cover story, the gist of the story was that the valiant bankers who had banded together to keep things orderly had prevented the worst of possible outcomes. (This version of history, while incorrect in its optimism, may well be true nonetheless; it’s always possible that the Great Depression could have been even worse than it was. As long as The Hunger Games is still fiction, that will always be true.) As TIME reported:

Monday, Nov. 4, when the Exchange re-opened there were more sellers than buyers but none were frenetic. Toward noon prices climbed, then dropped again. In general stocks closed lower than Thursday. U. S. Steel closed at 180, Radio at 43¼, General Motors at 45¼. The market except at the very opening was dull as though it were tired. But it seemed to rest securely. Stock Exchange Governors ordered the Exchange closed after 1 o’clock Wednesday, Thursday, Friday; all day Saturday. Tuesday was a legal holiday (election day). Thus was further rest insured.

Friday there were no quotations nor Saturday for the Exchange was closed. Clerks who had passed many a sleepless night, slept, then returned to clean up the greatest amount of work which brokerage houses have ever had in so short a time. In the hurly-burly many an error had been made. The clerks had to discover them, rectify them. But in the Stock Exchange Friday and Saturday there was quiet.

Thus did Confidence win its subtle race against Panic.

But not everyone was having trouble seeing what was about to happen. The following letter ran in the Dec. 2, 1929, issue:

stock market letter
From the Dec. 2, 1929, issue of TIME

Read Niall Ferguson’s comparison between 1929 and 2008 here in TIME’s archives: The End of Prosperity?

Read more: A Brief History of the Crash of 1929

Photos: The Crash of ’29

MONEY holiday shopping

13 Halloween Costumes for Finance Geeks

Actress Katie Seeley as a bear (left) and Sacha Baron Cohen as a bull (right)
Combine a bear costume (as worn by actress Katie Seeley, left,) and a bull suit (see Sacha Baron Cohen, right) for a punny stock market couples costume. Paul Archuleta/FilmMagic (left);Fotonoticias/WireImage (right)

Look like a million bucks—literally—with these creative costumes.

Still not sure what you’re dressing as for Halloween? Don’t despair. We’ve got a bunch of costume ideas that are right on the money. These finance-themed getups are accessible for a general audience (so you don’t have to spend your evening explaining, “No, the other kind of black swan…”), cheap, and quick to pull together.

For some tried-and-true ideas, you could go as Zombie Lehman Brothers, the London Whale, or characters from Dave Chappelle’s classic “Wu Tang Financial” sketch. Or you can try one of the more timeless 13 suggestions below. Then again, you could just dress up as prerecession government regulations and stay in for the night.

1. Money. Let’s be honest: Dressing as a giant bill or stack of bills is kind of boring. The concept is improved if your homemade costume is a reference to the “made-of-money man” in those Geico ads—or if you are an adorable baby swaddled in a sack of money. (Mom and Dad, throw on a mask and a badge, and voila! A cop-and-robber duo.)

2. A market crash. If Halloween season sneaked up on you like the October stock swoon did on traders, you can craft a “market crash” costume in five minutes by taping a fever line on a t-shirt with some masking or electrical tape. Use light-up accessories, and you’ve got a flash crash. This costume can be modified for a couple or group—just extend the fever line across your torsos—and it pairs nicely with a “broke broker.”

3. The Federal Reserve Chair. Mimic Janet Yellen’s signature white bob with a wig and her go-to outfit with a black blazer over a black dress or pant suit. Don’t forget a gold necklace. If people ask who you’re dressed as, throw fake money at them and yell, “Loose monetary policy!” To turn this into a group costume, grab yourself a Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan. Wear matching “chair” shirts for solidarity.

4. Bull & Bear (couples costume). Like salty-sweet snacks and Brangelina, this costume combination is greater than the sum of its parts. Relatively inexpensive store-bought costumes are easy to find, assuming you don’t want to spend hundreds of dollars, or you can always build a DIY ensemble with homemade horns and ears. Hang little signs with upward and downward trending fever lines around your necks for extra clarity. The only hard part will be deciding who gets to be which animal.

5. “Bond” girl. Personify this pun by dressing as your favorite 007 lady-friend and adding a hat, sign, or other accessory that reads “T-Bill” or features an image of a (now-technically-obsolete paper) Treasury bond. Jill Masterson’s “Goldfinger” look might be most recognizable: You can do it with gold spandex or body paint.

6. Wolf of Wall Street. See bull and bear, above. You just need a suit and tie, a wolf mask, and pockets brimming with fake money. And maybe some fake Quaaludes.

7. Cash cow. Unless your name is actually Cash (like this little guy), channel the Daily Show’s Samantha Bee and decorate a cow suit with dollar symbols.

8. A mortgage-backed security. This one might seem a little 2007, but there’s evidence these investment vehicles are coming back in vogue. Start with a shirt that says “security” in front. If you’re handy, you can then turn a small backpack into a “house” and wear that around. If not, just write “mortgage” on your back, and you’re done.

9. Gross domestic product. Just wear a “Made in America” t-shirt covered in dirt and fake blood.

10. Dogs of the Dow (group costume). Grab up to ten of your friends and dress as dogs. Wear tags with ticker symbols for each of the current Dogs of the Dow.

11. Distressed securities. Similar to #8, start with a shirt that reads “securities,” then layer on some dramatic makeup, to make yourself look, well, distressed.

12. Naked position & hedge (couples costume). This idea is pretty inside-baseball, but will be a fun challenge for your finance-savvy friends to guess at. The person dressed as the “naked position” can wear flesh-toned spandex, while his or her partner dresses like a hedge, as in shrubbery. Here are DIY instructions.

13. Spider / SPDR fund family (group costume). This one is pretty easy, since instructions for homemade spider costumes abound. You could go as a solo arachnid, with “ETF” painted across your chest, but dressing up is always more fun with friends. In a group you can each represent different funds; for example, the gold fund spider can wear a big gold chain and the ticker symbol GLD, and the high-yield bond spider can glue candy wrappers and bits of tinfoil all over himself and wear a sign that says JNK.

MONEY Markets

The Word on Wall Street Is It’s Okay to Be Bullish Again

After the market's triple-digit rebound on Friday, the bulls came out in force — on TV and social media. Here's how the talking heads explain the state of the market after one scary week.

After dramatic drops on Monday and Wednesday, the market took a turn for the better at the end of the week.

And the bulls started coming out of the woodwork.

“…the mid-week storm in the market was really a passing sun shower — though we did not know it at the time,” — Jonathan Lewis, chief investment officer, Samson Capital Advisors.

“…we remain steadfast with our multi-year bull-market scenario, as corrections and periods of consolidation are necessary ingredients to any prolonged bull market.” — Brian Belski, chief investment strategist BMO Capital Markets

“Whether the complete correction is over I’m not positive yet, but there looks to be some relative calm. I think the next leg is going to be higher.” – Jim Iuorio of TJM Institutional Services via CNBC

“The time to rebalance [and buy stocks] is when doing so requires courage and when things look ugly. Right now, investors are worried and see things as being ugly.” – David Kotok, chairman of Cumberland Advisors

A common theme from the bulls is that for all the worries about the global recovery, the U.S. economy looks solid:

“Ironically, the pullback in stocks has occurred against a backdrop of a strengthening U.S. economy.” — Gregg Fisher, chief investment officer at Gerstein Fisher

“The question is whether it is actually the beginning of a bear market. I don’t think so because I don’t expect a recession in the U.S. anytime soon.” — Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research

Of course, Yardeni goes on to add that:

“the Eurozone and Japan may be heading in that direction now. So is Brazil. China is slowing significantly.”

Shouldn’t investors be worried, then, that a recession in the European Union could reverberate in the U.S.?

Fear not, the bulls have an answer for that:

“The impact of an E.U. slowdown on U.S. growth would be minimal: U.S. exports to the E.U. are a small proportion of GDP (2.8% in 2013)…” notes UBS economist Maury Harris.

Many point out that economic factors have not really shifted since a month ago, when the stock market seemed just fine.

“You can go deep in the weeds in this if you like, but the fact is that nothing fundamental has changed in recent weeks or months or quarters,” writes Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities.

In fact, global economic worries, which have led to lower oil prices, may end up being a boon.

Screen Shot 2014-10-20 at 9.38.52 AM

Many experts are saying that this week’s wild market swings are actually just the result of “narrative fallacy,” which leads investors to come up with explanations for market moves where they don’t necessarily exist — in this case placing blame on external forces like Ebola and fears of rising interest rates.

But who’s to say that the bulls aren’t the ones who are now coming with plausible-sounding explanations for why the rally should keep going?

For the record, the bears have more entertaining explanations in their quiver. For instance, there’s the McDonald’s theory. As in, “as the Big Mac goes, so goes the global economy.”

Permabear Marc Faber, who edits the Gloom Doom Boom site, noted the following:

“Now, McDonald’s is a very good indicator of the global economy. If McDonald’s doesn’t increase its sales, it tells you that the monetary policies have largely failed in the sense that prices are going up more than disposable income, and so people have less purchasing power.”

And Mickey D’s sales have been slumping badly lately.

Then there’s the so-called dental indicator.

Bloomberg Businessweek reported a nifty theory that says that the rate at which Americans cancel scheduled follow-up visits offers a good clue about the real state of the consumer — and in turn the financial markets.

“This is a forward indicator signifying lack of consumer confidence.” — Vijay Sikka, president of Sikka Software, as told to Bloomberg Businessweek

And the follow-through rate on follow-up dental visits has sunk to about where it was in 2007, just before the last downturn/bear market.

At this stage, it’s impossible to tell whether this is the start of bear market or a buying opportunity. However, what’s absolutely clear is that big dips are just a normal part of being a stock investor.

Despite anxieties about the Dow’s sudden plunge this week, if you look at historical performance, the index typically turns negative for the year often enough that it’s not a good doomsday indicator, says author and investment adviser Josh Brown.

Screen Shot 2014-10-20 at 9.39.39 AM

And at the end of the day, who’s to say which wacky theories wind up being right or wrong?

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