MONEY Opinion

How History Can Mess With Your Investing Strategy

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange March 2, 2009.
Shannon Stapleton—Reuters Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange March 2, 2009.

People get history wrong when they look back at specific events and expect them to repeat in the future.

Do you read history? Believe almost all of it? Use it as a guide to the future?

Me too. But let’s consider something. Take these two statements:

“11 million jobs have been created since 2009. The stock market has tripled. The unemployment rate nearly cut in half. The U.S. economy has enjoyed a strong recovery under President Obama.”

“The recovery since 2009 has been one of the weakest on record. The national debt has ballooned. Wages are stagnant. Millions of Americans have given up looking for work. The economy has been a disappointment under President Obama.

Both of these statements are true. They are both history. Which one is right?

It’s a weird question, because history is supposed to be objective. There’s only supposed to be one “right.”

But that’s almost never the case, especially when an emotional topic like your opinion of the president is included. Everyone chooses the version of history that fits what they want to believe, which tends to be a reflection of how they were raised, which is different for everybody. We do this with the economy, the stock market, politics — everything.

It can make history dangerous. What starts as an honest attempt to objectively study the past quickly becomes a field day of confirming your existing beliefs. This is like steroids for inflating your confidence and puts you on a path to misguided, regrettable decisions. (Misguided and regrettable decisions being the one thing everyone agrees history is filled with).

In his book Why Don’t We Learn From History?, B.H. Liddell Hart wrote:

[History] cannot be interpreted without the aid of imagination and intuition. The sheer quantity of evidence is so overwhelming that selection is inevitable. Where there is selection there is art.

Those who read history tend to look for what proves them right and confirms their personal opinions. They defend loyalties. They read with a purpose to affirm or to attack. They resist inconvenient truth since everyone wants to be on the side of the angels. Just as we start wars to end all wars.

I see this all the time in investing. The amount of investing data is incomprehensible and growing by the day. Anyone can think up a narrative, then sift through mountains of historical data to find examples backing it up.

Think stocks are expensive? History agrees. Think stocks are cheap? History agrees. Think tax cuts spur economic growth? History agrees. Think tax cuts don’t spur economic growth? History agrees. History shows that raising interest rates is both good and bad for stocks. It proves that buy-and-hold investing is the best and the worst strategy. In the age of big data, no idea is so absurd that a good spreadsheet can’t make it look right.

And a lot of the historical events investors try to study — recessions, bear markets, bouts of hyperinflation — are rare enough that we don’t have many episodes to draw conclusions from.

To know a lot about recessions, for example, you’d ideally want hundreds of examples to study. But there have only been 33 recessions in the last 150 years. And the data we have on most of them is dubious. Estimates on how much the economy contracted during the 1920 recession range from 2.4% to 6.9%, which is the difference between a moderate recession and a near-depression. In the last 50 years, when data is more reliable, there have been just seven U.S. recessions. So how are we supposed to take seriously any historical statistic about the average recession? How long the average recession lasts? How frequently they occur? How high unemployment goes? We’re talking about something that has occurred just seven times in the last half-century.

So, what good does looking at history do us?

A lot, in fact. You just can’t take it too far.

People get history wrong when they look back at specific events and expect them to repeat in the future. It’s so easy to underestimate how much past events were caused by trivia and accident rather than trends that should repeat in some clean way. Investors who have unshakable faith in markets reverting back to specific historical averages have some of the worst track records you can imagine. This goes into overdrive when you acknowledge the subjectiveness of historical recordkeeping. “I have written too much history to believe in it,” historian Henry Adams once said.

But history can be great at teaching broad, unspecific lessons. Here are five.

Something usually occurs to keep good news and bad news from going on forever.Recessions end because excess gets washed away; booms end because everything gets priced in. Most people wake up every morning wanting to make the world a better place, but psychopaths, idiots, charlatans, and quacks are persuasive enough to occasionally shake things up.

Unsustainable things last longer than you think. Every war was supposed to be over in a month, every boom was surely going to pop any day, and every round of Federal Reserve money printing meant high inflation right around the corner. In reality, things that look unsustainable can last for years or decades longer than seems reasonable. “I was right, just early,” are famous last words, and indistinguishable from “wrong”.

Normal things change faster than you expect. “History doesn’t crawl,” Nassim Taleb writes, “it leaps.” Things “go from fracture to fracture, with a few vibrations in between. Yet we like to believe in the predictable, small incremental progression.”

Irrationality spreads at the worst possible times. Most people can keep their heads straight when things are calm. It’s when things get exciting — bull markets, bear markets, wars, recessions, panics — that emotions take over. Importantly, decisions during made during those crazy moments are the most important decisions you make over the long run.

Nothing is stronger than self-interest. When someone in charge of lots of people gains the most by promoting their own interests, you get inefficiencies at best, disaster more often. What everyone knows is the truth or the right thing to do is ignored because a few people can get ahead doing something else. This describes most organizations.

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MONEY stocks

Give Your Investments a Midyear Checkup

Kagan McLeod

How to ensure your wealth is still in good health.

Halfway into the year, and 2015 may have already thrown you and your financial plans for a loop.

Stocks, which were supposed to slow as the bull market entered its seventh year, are back to setting all-time highs—and have gotten frothy as a result. Gas prices, which were on the verge of plunging below $2 a gallon, have reversed course and are now headed toward $3. And the job market, once on a roll, looks to have hit another speed bump.

Okay, the changes aren’t of the magnitude of what you saw in the financial crisis. But they don’t have to be to throw your financial plans off-kilter. As with your annual physical exam, the midway point of the year is a smart time to take some vitals, run some tests, and reassess your own situation. Over the coming weeks, we’ll provide you with a wealth-care checklist. First up: a review of your investments.

STRESS-TEST YOUR PORTFOLIO

Ailment: Rising rates. The Federal Reserve says it could raise interest rates at any one of its upcoming meetings now—which would mark the first rate increase in nearly nine years.

Hiking rates is like stepping on the economy’s brakes. Historically, there’s an 80% chance stocks will fall by 5% or more once investors see Fed “tightening” as imminent. Moreover, bond prices move in the opposite direction of market rates, so fixed-income funds could take a hit too. When the Fed lifted rates in 1994, for instance, intermediate-term bond prices sank 11.1%.

Treatment: Don’t overreact. The natural inclination is to be überconservative. But market watchers from Warren Buffett to bond guru Bill Gross think global growth is slow enough for the Fed to be patient. And even if the central bank acts in the coming months, short-term rates are still expected to rise only about half a percentage point by year-end, according to a survey of economists by Blue Chip Economic Indicators.

Move to the middle on bonds. The traditional advice for fixed income is to “shorten up.” That is, sell funds holding long-maturity bonds and hide out in short-term debt that’s less vulnerable to price declines. But with short rates still near zero, you could be leaving a lot of money on the table, warns BlackRock portfolio manager Rick Rieder. Plus there’s no guarantee bonds will lose money. When rates rose in 2005, bond prices fell but investors earned 1% on a total return basis when factoring in yields. So instead of going all short, stick with intermediate funds like Dodge & Cox Income DODGE & COX INCOME FUND DODIX 0.22% , whose nearly 3% yield can soften the blow from price declines.

Stay (mostly) the course with stocks. Not all pullbacks turn into bear markets. In fact, history shows most sectors keep rising six months after the Fed starts raising rates, including economically sensitive ones like technology and consumer discretionary, notes S&P Capital IQ’s Sam Stovall. That’s why Stovall says you’re better off holding on and selling equities only if you need to rebalance. In which case…

REBALANCE YOUR INVESTMENT DIET

Ailment: A frothy market. Stocks are still on a roll, with blue-chip equity funds having posted 15% annual gains over the past three years, vs. 3% for intermediate bonds. What’s wrong with that? Based on 10 years of average profits, the price/earnings ratio for stocks is now above 27, where it was leading up to the Great Depression, the 2000 tech wreck, and the 2007 financial crisis. Even if there is selloff here, history says to expect meager returns over the next 10 years.

Treatment: Get back to your target weight. If you started with 60% stocks/40% bonds three years ago, you’re closer to 70% stocks now. Shift your allocation back before the market does it for you, says planner Eric Roberge.

Use the 5% rule: Don’t overmedicate, as rebalancing can trigger trading costs and taxes. So rebalance only if your mix shifted by five percentage points or more, says Francis Kinniry with Vanguard’s investment strategy group.

Think small: Since rebalancing is about selling high, unload your frothiest equities first. Over the past 15 years, small stocks have trounced the S&P 500 by four percentage points annually, and now trade above their historical 3% P/E premium to bluechip shares.

Sell American: In the past decade, U.S. stocks have outpaced foreign equities by 3.5 points a year. American shares now trade at a 15% higher P/E ratio than global stocks, even though they have historically traded at similar valuations.

MONEY college savings

The Earnings on Your 529 College Savings Account Stink. Here’s Why That’s OK

dollar bill shoved in pile of books
Mudretsov Oleksandr—iStock

It's not all bad news.

The average investor in a college savings plan made just about 4% last year, even though the total U.S. stock market rose by almost 14%, a new study from Morningstar found.

But the lead author of the report, Leo Acheson, says that performance may not be quite as depressing as it sounds, for these six reasons:

  • It still beats tuition: Although 4% severely lags the Standard & Poor’s 500, it beat tuition inflation, which rose by 3.7% in 2014, according to the College Board.
  • Older students should earn less: A disproportionately large percentage of all 529 assets are funds that have been saved over time for students who are now at or nearing college age. Funds for those students should be—and typically are—invested very conservatively. Savings plans designed for current college students, for example, are typically almost entirely in safe bonds, which means they are earning less than 2% a year right now, Acheson notes.
  • Diversification setbacks should be short-term: Younger and more aggressive investors whose portfolios were globally diversified also earned less than the Standard & Poor’s 500 in 2014 because of trouble in international markets. Overall, emerging markets funds lost about 5% in 2014, for example. But, in theory, at least, globally diversified portfolios should do better over the long run.
  • Savers get federal tax benefits: When parents take the money out of 529 accounts to pay college bills, they don’t have to pay taxes on the gains, which boosts their effective return. Morningstar estimated that a family in the 25% to 35% tax bracket that saved $2,400 annually over the last five years would have netted $15,275 after taxes in a typical mutual fund, but $15,628 after taxes from the same investment in a sheltered 529 account.
  • Some also get state tax benefits: About half of Americans live in one of the 34 states that give deductions or credits on state tax returns for contributions to 529 plans. Those initial tax breaks reduce families’ state tax bills by an average of 8.7% of the contribution, according to Morningstar. (See if you live in a state with a 529 tax break.)
  • Fees are shrinking: One of the biggest criticisms of 529 plans has been the high fees that eat away at parents’ investment returns. Morningstar found that, for example, large value index funds offered in 529 plans charge expense ratios of .78% of assets, while the equivalent mutual fund outside of 529 plans charges just .56%. But 40 plans cut their fees in 2014, bringing the average gap between mutual funds and similar 529 plans down by more than half, Acheson found. In addition, the best plans, recommended by MONEY and by Morningstar, have fees as low as .08%.

The bottom line of all of these developments, Acheson says, is that for families in moderate to high tax brackets, and those who live in a state with a 529 tax break, “it makes sense to save for college in a 529 plan…especially one with low fees.”

MONEY stocks

As Earnings Shrink, Here’s Where to Hunt for Profits

Zachary Zavislak

Finding pockets of growth is the key to higher returns.

Though the economy is growing and the stock market remains near record highs, one key fundamental indicator has taken a sharp turn for the worse. Corporate earnings, which helped propel this six-year-old bull market, actually shrank in the first quarter. And if profits sink again this spring, as is widely expected, it would “qualify as an earnings recession”—the first since the global financial crisis, says Burt White, chief investment officer for LPL Financial.

With the S&P 500 trading at a price/earnings ratio of 18, which is about 20% above the historical average, diminishing profits are a reason to worry, but not to panic.

For starters, there have been three years since 1974 in which earnings failed to grow without the onset of an economic recession: 1986, 1998, and 2012, when equities posted double-digit gains. What’s more, the biggest drag on overall profits has been energy, where analysts forecast a 58% decline in earnings per share through 2015. Strip out that sector and analysts predict a modest earnings increase in the second quarter.

You just have to know where to look for that continued growth.

See who wins cheap oil

While the oil market collapse has crushed energy companies, the decline in crude prices boosts other parts of the economy. With less money going into filling up their gas tanks, consumers can open their wallets a bit more. No wonder retail sales in March posted their biggest monthly gain in a year.

One industry that benefits from higher consumer spending and lower fuel prices is transportation. A smart way in: SPDR S&P Transportation ETF SPDR SERIES TRUST SPDR S TR/S&P TRANSN ETF XTN 1.08% , which emphasizes cheaper airline stocks over frothier railroad shares. The portfolio’s average P/E is just 14.9, vs. 19.4 for consumer stocks.

Focus on Revenue Growers

The profit boom in the years following the financial crisis had more to do with cost cutting than expanding sales. Eventually, though, “earnings grow because sales grow,” says Pat Dorsey of Dorsey Asset Management.

S&P Capital IQ says the sector with the biggest revenue growth in the second quarter will be health care. The sector is “relatively immune to changes in the economy,” notes Morningstar analyst Karen Andersen.

Still, health care stocks have doubled in the past three years, so you have to tread carefully. Andersen notes that biotechnology stocks look particularly pricey.

One exception is Gilead Sciences GILEAD SCIENCES INC. GILD -0.03% . With a P/E ratio of just 14—thanks to rapidly growing earnings—this biotech giant is priced 30% below its five-year average. This is despite an expected jump in hepatitis C drug sales that alone could add $14.4 billion to Gilead’s revenues this year. Andersen sees earnings growing 11% in 2015.

Ride the Currency Waves

With the U.S. dollar up 22% in nine months, American firms selling to Europe and Asia are at a disadvantage. Not only are their goods more costly to foreign buyers, but they have to convert those sales back into dollars, deflating their results.

One way to avoid the fallout is to stick with truly domestic stocks. Firms (excluding energy) with most of their sales in the U.S. are expected to see 11% profit growth in 2015. Comcast COMCAST CORP. CMCSA 0.16% makes only about 5% of its money abroad, vs. 46% for the S&P 500. Despite the nixed deal for Time Warner Cable, its earnings are expected to grow more than 11% annually for the next five years.

On the flip side, analysts expect European earnings to beat S&P 500 results in 2015, as the weaker euro cuts prices for the Continent’s goods sold abroad. A cheap option is Vanguard European Stock Index VANGUARD EUROPEAN STOCK INDEX INV VEURX 0.61% , which charges just 0.26%.

Look for Growing Dividends

At a time of uncertainty over profits, a good sign companies are confident “in their future prospects” is if they boost dividends, says Haverford Trust chief investment officer Hank Smith.

A bonus: Rising dividends beat the market. Since March 2006, $100 invested in the S&P 500 has grown to $414. The same amount invested in the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats index, which tracks stocks that have raised dividends every year for at least 25 years, has become $526. For a solid dividend growth fund, go with SPDR S&P Dividend ETF SPDR SERIES TRUST DIVIDEND ETF SDY 0.08% , which is in our MONEY 50 list of recommended funds and ETFs.

MONEY stocks

The Fashionable Investing Trend You Should Avoid

Illustration by Taylor Callery

Value investing, the art of finding gems among beaten-down stocks, is a time-honored strategy. But recently a simple approach to value has become fashionable: Instead of hunting for bargains, buy all the stocks in the market, but “tilt” so that you own more of those with low prices relative to earnings or underlying business value. Academic research says it earns some extra return, and now lots of mutual funds and ETFs offer such statistical value plays.

So it might surprise you to learn that from 1991 to 2013, investors in value funds underper-formed the S&P 500 by close to a percentage point a year, according to an analysis of fund data by Research Affiliates.

Does this mean the value premium is overhyped?

No, it’s just misunderstood. The same study showed that value funds beat the market by nearly half a percentage point annually over this stretch. But, on average, investors in those funds didn’t capture that edge, because they traded at the wrong times, piling in when the style was hot and selling only after the funds had underperformed. So before you go after the so-called value effect, keep two things in mind.

Value Isn’t a Short-Term Play

Although there’s evidence that value works in the long run, “you can go decades where value is either in or out of favor,” says Gregg Fisher, chief investment officer for Gerstein Fisher. Indeed, growth stocks—the high-priced antithesis to value shares—largely outpaced the broad market from 1988 to 2000.

“The worst thing you can do is try to time value,” says Jason Hsu, vice chairman at Research Affiliates. If you wait to snap up such stocks until after they’ve done well, you lose part of their advantage—the low prices.

Tilt Lightly (Especially Now)

The investment community has lately gone on a tilting spree. Rick Ferri, founder of Portfolio Solutions, warns that there’s “an awful lot of money going into a small group of securities.” And there’s evidence that the market has changed as a result: The stocks with the lowest price/earnings ratios are now only 15% cheaper than those with the highest P/Es. The value discount has been closer to 35% in the past.

Ferri recommends keeping the majority of your stock portfolio in an index fund or something else that’s in line with the broad market, devoting no more than 25% to value or other kinds of tilts. And don’t do it at all unless you expect to be invested for a long time. Says Ferri: “With all this recent attention, it might take 20 or 30 years before you see the true benefits.”

MONEY mutual funds

5 Things You Didn’t Know About the World’s Biggest Bond Fund

The Vanguard Group headquarters in Malvern, Pennsylvania
Mike Mergen—Bloomberg via Getty Images The Vanguard Group headquarters in Malvern, Pennsylvania

Vanguard Total Bond Market, which is now bigger than Pimco Total Return, is a fine fund. But it doesn't quite cover all the bonds you need.

With a whopping $117 billion in assets, Vanguard Total Bond Market Index is now the biggest bond fund in the world, overtaking the long-reigning champ Pimco Total Return, according to data reported by the Wall Street Journal. If you add in the assets held by Vanguard’s exchange-traded fund version of Total Bond Market, the fund controls about $144 billion.

While big in dollar terms, this portfolio isn’t so large in scope. Here are some things you may not know about bondland’s new 800 lb. gorilla:

Despite its name, Vanguard Total Bond Market doesn’t come close to giving you exposure to the total bond market.
Sure, this fund does give you decent market exposure, but it limits that to the universe of high-quality bonds. This means the fund can own debt issued by the U.S. government, government agencies, and “investment grade” corporations with pristine credit.

Only around one tenth of 1 percent of the fund’s assets are held in high-yielding “junk” bonds issued by companies that are considered less than “investment grade.” In the bond world, higher quality issuers can get away with paying lower yields. This explains why the average yield for this fund is a modest 2%.

This fund doesn’t even give you adequate exposure to high-quality corporate bonds.
While Vanguard Total Bond Market does own high-quality corporate securities, they represent less than one quarter of the fund’s assets. With more than 75% of its assets in Treasuries and U.S. agency-related debt, this is more of a government bond fund than anything else.

This is why MONEY has recommended supplementing this fund (which is in our MONEY 50 list of recommended mutual and exchange-traded funds) with a corporate-centric portfolio, such as iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate ETF (which is also in the MONEY 50).

This fund gives you extremely little foreign exposure.
Technically, Vanguard Total Bond Market does own a tiny amount of international debt. But the biggest weighting is to Canada, which makes up less than 1.7% of the fund. In fact, bonds based in the U.K, Germany, Mexico, and France each make up less than 1% of the fund’s total assets.

To really gain foreign exposure, you will have to further supplement this fund with an international fixed income fund, such as Vanguard Total International Bond Index fund, which is also in the MONEY 50.

Unlike the past champ, Pimco Total Return, this fund runs on autopilot.
As its name would indicate, Vanguard Total Bond Market Index is an index fund. This means that instead of being controlled by a star manager who picks and chooses which bonds to buy and sell, this fixed-income portfolio passively tracks a fixed-income market benchmark. In this case, that’s the Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Float-Adjusted Index.

Vanguard Total Bond became the biggest bond fund sort of by default.
While Total Bond has been consistently gaining investors in recent years, it didn’t win the crown so much as Pimco Total Return lost it. At its peak, Pimco Total Return wasn’t just the biggest bond fund, it was the largest mutual fund in the world. Yet after approaching nearly $300 billion, Pimco Total Return lost more than half its assets as investors fled amid infighting at Pimco which eventually led to the departure of famed fixed income manager Bill Gross. Today, Pimco Total Return is down to around $117 billion.

MONEY Ask the Expert

Have Mutual Funds Lost a Key Advantage Over ETFs?

Investing illustration
Robert A. Di Ieso, Jr.

Q: ETFs seem to be taking the place of mutual funds, but my understanding is that mutual funds are still your best option if you want to reinvest dividends. Is that true? — Bill from Florence, S.C.

A: Once upon a time, there was some truth to this. But the popularity of dividend-focused exchange-traded funds has prompted most brokerages to tweak their policies to accommodate dividend reinvestors.

“From an investor standpoint the experience should be similar, though the process behind the scenes is different,” says Heather Pelant, a personal investor strategist with BlackRock, which manages mutual funds as well as ETFs via the firm’s iShares division.

Before ETFs became widely adopted, some brokerages charged ETF investors a transaction cost for dividend reinvestments, says Pelant. Hence the notion that mutual funds are a better vehicle for reinvesting dividends. “These platforms have since come up with procedures and features that are parallel to mutual funds,” she says.

Today, most large brokerages give investors the option of depositing dividend payouts into their cash accounts or automatically reinvesting dividends back into the security – be it an individual stock, mutual fund, or ETF. You should be able to make this choice on a fund by fund basis, change your preference at any time, and reinvest your dividends for free.

Still, it’s always a good idea to double check your broker’s own policy, lest you get dinged with additional fees.

One way ETFs are different (slightly) from mutual funds is the timing of reinvestments. Mutual fund dividend payouts are reinvested at a fund’s net asset value on the ex-dividend date, which is essentially the cutoff date for new shareholders to collect that dividend.

ETF investors, on the other hand, have to wait for all transactions to settle, typically a few days, to repurchase shares. If share prices swing widely during that short window of time, it could make a difference — for better or for worse.

For most investors, however, this nuance matters far less than all the other factors that go into deciding whether to invest via an ETF or fund.

Meanwhile, dividend reinvesting is a great tool to stay fully invested and systematically buy additional shares over time, says Pelant. Over the long term, these payouts really can add up.

Of course, because different funds will have different payouts, automatically reinvesting dividends could eventually throw off your allocations — even more reason to make sure you periodically rebalance your portfolio.

MONEY stocks

14 Simple Ways to Be a Smarter (and Richer) Investor

brain made out of gold bars
Hiroshi Watanabe—Getty Images

Picking stocks is hard—and you still might not beat throwing darts at the stock pages. Here some easier ways to get yourself an edge.

1. Don’t pay 33% of your money in fees. Mutual fund charges look small, but the cost of paying an extra 1% a year in fees is that you give up 33% of your potential wealth over the course of 40 years. An index fund like Schwab Total Stock Market SCHWAB TOTAL STOCK MARKET SWTSX -0.13% can keep your expenses below 0.1%, compared with over 1% for many stock funds.

2. Mix your own simple plan. Four very low-cost index funds, recommended in the Money 50, deliver all the world’s major markets. (See graphic below.) The more aggressive you are, the more you can tilt toward stocks.

Source: MONEY research

3. Or pick just one fund. You don’t have to be fancy to be an effective investor. A classic balanced mix (about 60% stocks/40% bonds) provides plenty of equities’ upside, with less pain during crashes. The Vanguard Wellington VANGUARD WELLINGTON INV VWELX -0.03% balanced fund has earned an annualized 8% over a decade.

4. Or hire a robo-adviser. Outside of a 401(k), if you want a plan that’s more tailored to you, web-based automated investment services can put you in a mix of low-cost index funds and then rebalance as you go. Betterment and Wealthfront stand out as low-cost options, charging 0.35% of assets or less.

5. Patch the holes in a 401(k). Many workplace plans offer at least an S&P 500 or total stock market index fund as a low cost option for buying U.S. stocks. But if your plan doesn’t offer good choices in other asset classes, such as bonds and foreign stocks, diversify elsewhere. Save enough to get the company match. Then fund an IRA, where you can choose which bond funds or foreign funds to go with.

6. While you’re at it, dump company stock. About $1 out of every $7 in 401(k)s is invested in employer shares. But your income is already tied to that company. Your retirement shouldn’t be too.

7. Pick an asset, any asset. You can get into trouble by being too clever by half. The average investor has barely beaten inflation in the past 20 years as a result of buying trendy assets high and selling low. Forget all that. As the chart below shows, you’re better off buying and holding almost any major asset class.

Sources: Bloomberg, Morningstar, DalbarNotes: Returns are through Dec. 31, 2013.

8. Be patient with funds. Some well-known bargain-minded funds, such as Dodge & Cox Stock DODGE & COX STOCK FUND DODGX -0.31% , have struggled this past year. That doesn’t mean you should flee. True value funds refuse to buy popular—read expensive—stocks, so they often lag in frothy times. But over the past 15 years, Dodge & Cox has outperformed its peers by 2.5 percentage points a year and the S&P by more than four points.

9. Be stingy with funds. Cheapskates know index funds aren’t their only options. Actively managed blue-chip stock funds with an expense ratio of 0.35% or less have returned 8.5% over the past decade. That’s 0.5 percentage point better annually than the S&P 500. A great option: Vanguard Equity-Income VANGUARD EQUITY INCOME INV VEIPX -0.16% , charging 0.29%, has outpaced the market’s gains by 3.5 points annually over the past 15 years.

10. Rebalance? Maybe not. Routinely resetting your stocks and bonds to their original levels “is a nice idea in theory,” says planner Phil Cook. But “if you rebalance too often, you can give up a lot of potential returns.” In your twenties and thirties, when you’re almost all in stocks, you can skip it. As you age, though, gradually increase the frequency of rebalancing to every few years.

11. Break up with your high-cost adviser. Stock and bond returns are expected to be muted in the coming decade, so cutting advisory fees—often 1% of assets—matters. Vanguard Personal Advisor Services charges just 0.3% of assets. Some tech-based services, such as Betterment and Wealthfront, charge even less.

12. Put your portfolios together… If you hold a third of your 401(k) in bonds, your mix may be riskier than you think if your spouse is 100% in stocks. Coordinating also improves your options. If your spouse’s plan has a better foreign fund, focus your international allocation there.

13. …and your assets in the right place. Once you’ve maxed out your IRAs and 401(k)s, use taxable accounts for the most tax-efficient investments in your mix. They include index and buy-and-hold equity funds that trade infrequently and generate few capital gains distributions.

14. Take a fresh look at a classic. You’ve now built up enough assets that advisers will be eager to sell you clever ideas to beat the market. Before you bite, read the 2015 edition of A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Burton Malkiel has updated his skeptical investment guide to take on the latest new flavor, “smart” ETFs. If a fund has a greater return, says Malkiel, it’s probably because it’s taking on more risk.

Adapted from “101 Ways to Build Wealth,” by Daniel Bortz, Kara Brandeisky, Paul J. Lim, and Taylor Tepper, which originally appeared in the May 2015 issue of MONEY magazine.

MONEY Ask the Expert

The Best Way to Own Gold and Silver

Investing illustration
Robert A. Di Ieso, Jr.

Q: I’m looking for information on adding gold and silver to my investments. What are the advantages and disadvantages of buying coins? What about gold and silver stocks or mutual funds?

A: “We think gold and other precious metals can play a part in a well-diversified portfolio, but our preference is to own the stocks or the mutual funds that would give you that exposure,” says Joe Franklin, a certified financial planner and president of Franklin Wealth Management in Hixson, Tenn.

The trouble with coins, he says, is that dealers charge a premium. And the price you pay isn’t based purely on the value of the underlying gold, silver or platinum. There are other factors at play, such as historical value or the costs associated with minting commemorative pieces.

If do buy coins, you can start by searching the U.S. Mint’s site for an authorized purchaser in your region, then do additional research to make sure that the outfit is reputable. This is an area rife with scams.

Another consideration with owning the actual metal is storage: If you pay a third-party to hold the coins for you, there are additional fees. If you store it in a safe at home, there are additional risks. A bank safe deposit box may be your best bet, but annual fees range from about $20 to more than $200 depending on the size.

The fees and logistics of owning coins are only part of the problem, says Franklin. “Gold in and of itself doesn’t have a lot of utility,” he adds. “It doesn’t pay interest or dividends, and while it can go up in value it tends to be a fear trade.”

If you’re interested in pure exposure to gold, a better bet is an exchange-traded fund, such as the SPDR Gold Trust (ticker: GLD), which aims to track the spot price of gold bullion. “There’s more liquidity and transparency with a fund,” he says. “But you’re still going to see dramatic swings.”

For that reason, Franklin’s preferred strategy is a diversified natural resource mutual fund, which has the flexibility to invest in precious metals — namely via shares of mining companies, some of which pay dividends — energy concerns, and other commodities.

“Managers of these funds have a lot more latitude to pick their spots,” he explains. While he isn’t a proponent of market timing, Franklin warns that commodities tend to go through long periods of over- and under performance. “They’re either really in favor,” he says, “or really out of favor.”

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