MONEY Jobs

POLL: Do You Want to Have Your Own Business Someday?

Are you the entrepreneurial type, or do you prefer a steady paycheck from the boss? Let us know.

MONEY Federal Reserve

What Will the Fed Do Today? These Five Numbers Can Tell Us

With the economy and job markets finally looking healthy, the Federal Reserve may signal its first interest rate hike in years.

While you’ve been doing your Christmas shopping, the Federal Reserve’s Open Markets Committee — the club of officials who set short-term interest rates — has been meeting in Washington.

With the economy finally humming along, and interest rates still close to zero, market watchers are wondering how much longer the Fed will hold out before signaling its first rate hike since before the financial crisis.

That step isn’t likely to be taken Wednesday, when the two-day meeting concludes and the Fed issues an official statement. But economists do expect a significant change in the language that the Fed uses to telegraphs its policies.

In particular, the central bank has consistently stated that it will keep rates low for a “considerable time.” But a recent survey conducted by Bloomberg found that four-fifths of economists believe the Fed will drop the phrase today in order to signal a more aggressive time table — and that rates are actually likely to rise in the middle of next year.

In the meantime, here are five data points the Committee is likely discussing. The statement comes out at 2 p.m.

 

GDP

GDP

The economy is growing at a healthy pace. After a blip earlier this year — widely attributed to 2013’s severe winter — the economy grew 3.9% in the third quarter. Hiking interest rates would presumably help fight off unwanted inflation. But it would also slow economic growth and could even throw the country back into a recession. That was a much bigger risk when growth was crawling along at 1% to 2% rate. With growth close to 4%, the Fed may finally be getting ready to move.

 

Payroll

Jobs

Of course, GDP growth doesn’t mean much if you can’t actually get a job. And the employment picture has been downright sluggish in recent years, even at times when the broader economy was showing signs of life. But that’s finally started to change. The most recent jobs report, which showed the economy adding 321,000 jobs in November, was widely regarded as one of the best in years.

 

Inflation

Inflation

While GDP and jobs growth may be robust enough to justify an interest rate hike, the Fed may remain cautious for several reasons. The first one is that there is not much forcing its hand. Interest rates hikes are the central bank’s main weapon for fighting inflation. But with prices rising at less than 2%, there’s not much inflation to fight. That’s good news, meaning the Fed has flexibility to keep rates low if it seems helpful.

 

stocks

Stocks

Like the economy more broadly, the stock market is doing well — up about 12% so far this year. Nonetheless the Fed will want to avoid roiling markets with unexpected news. That’s what happened during 2013’s “taper tantrum” when markets slumped after the Fed let slip plans to taper off its stimulative bond purchases. Since economists are widely expecting the Fed to hint at higher interest rates, that seems unlikely this time…but markets are always fickle.

 

oil

Oil

While the U.S. may be looking rosier, there’s still plenty to worry about in the rest of the world. One dramatic manifestation of these fears: the sudden, sharp drop in oil prices. Booming economies tend to use a lot of energy. Weakening ones less so. In many ways cheap oil helps the U.S. It’s certainly been a boon to Detroit. But it can also have destabilizing effects. It’s the key reason the ruble has crashed in the past few days. It’s also the prime suspect in the U.S. stock market swoon in past two weeks. Shares have fallen nearly 5% since Dec. 5, including 112 points on Tuesday. Those jitters are one more reason the Fed may choose to tread carefully.

MONEY Jobs

Here’s What To Expect From The Job Market in 2015

There should be good news for job seekers in 2015 as the US economy continues to rebound.

TIME Innovation

Five Best Ideas of the Day: December 10

The Aspen Institute is an educational and policy studies organization based in Washington, D.C.

1. The cheap oil American consumers are enjoying might be the result of an existential battle between Saudi Arabia and ISIS.

By James R. Rogers in First Things

2. Turns out the busts of the first dot-com era were great ideas.

By Robert McMillan in Wired

3. The return of American manufacturing and a skilled population hungry for jobs is reviving the Rust Belt.

By Joel Kotkin & Richey Piiparinen in the Daily Beast

4. Climate change might transform coal, oil, and gas reserves into financially-troubled stranded assets.

By Andrew Freedman in Mashable

5. A nonprofit boarding school for girls in Afghanistan is working to upend education there.

By Susan Daugherty in National Geographic

The Aspen Institute is an educational and policy studies organization based in Washington, D.C.

TIME Ideas hosts the world's leading voices, providing commentary and expertise on the most compelling events in news, society, and culture. We welcome outside contributions. To submit a piece, email ideas@time.com.

TIME Careers & Workplace

These Are the 50 Best Places to Work for 2015

Based on analysis by Glassdoor, a website where employees post anonymous reviews of their companies

Glassdoor, a website that allows employees to post anonymous reviews of their offices, has released its annual list of the best places to work in the U.S. for 2015. Google is at the top, and it is also at the top of the U.K. version of this ranking (a new section this year).

The website only includes companies with more than 1,000 employees and at least 50 “approved” reviews for this report. Ratings come from reviews provided by employees who participated in a survey that was conducted between November 13, 2013 and November 2, 2014. Each overall ranking is based on the “quantity, quality and consistency of reviews,” according to a statement.

Glassdoor

LIST: 5 of the Best Companies for Working Moms

LIST: Best Places to Live 2014

Read next: The 25 Absolute Best Workplaces in the World

MONEY Jobs

Best—and Worst—Cities for Jobs in 2015

Cape Coral Florida along the Caloosahatchee River.
More than a third of employers in Cape Coral, Fla., plan to increase hiring next year. Florida Images—Alamy

These are the places where the most employers say they'll be adding jobs next year. Some of them might surprise you.

Big picture, the job market is doing pretty well. But drill down to the cities that are projecting the most—and the least—hiring when 2015 kicks off, and you find some surprising places.

In its quarterly Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, out today, the employment services company asked 18,000 employers in 100 metropolitan statistical areas how they expect hiring will change in the first quarter of 2015 compared with the fourth quarter of this year.

One-fifth of employers anticipate hiring staff in the first quarter, while just 6% are planning workforce cuts.

The strongest job prospects are expected in Cape Coral, Fla., with 32% of employers projecting more hiring. Better known as a Gulf Coast beach destination, Cape Coral was recently recognized as a top city for startup businesses. Growth in tourism and hospitality is also boosting the job market there.

Mexican border town McAllen, Texas, came in at number two, with 29% of employers projecting an increase in jobs. Thanks to the tariff-free trade agreements between the U.S. and Mexico, American companies including General Electric and Nokia have major facilities there, fueling job growth.

Deltona, Fla., another beach destination, came in third, with 26% of employers expecting to hire. Grand Rapids, Mich., headquarters for several major office-furniture manufacturers including Herman Miller, as well as a hub for aviation and auto manufacturers, also expects a 26% bump up in hiring.

At No. 5, Oxnard, Calif., is another city driven by international trade. Home to a major commercial port between Los Angeles and San Francisco, employers there expect a 24% jump in hiring in the first quarter.

Though the hiring outlook wasn’t negative in any of the 100 metropolitan areas Manpower surveyed, there were weak spots. Despite low unemployment rates, fewer than 10% of employers in these metropolitan areas expect to be adding jobs: Boston; Bridgeport, Conn,; Minneapolis; New York; Portland, Ore.; and Spokane, Wash.

For more places with hot job prospects, check out MONEY’s Best Places to Live:
The Best Places to Find a New Job
The Top-Earning Towns
See all the Best Places to Live

 

 

MONEY Jobs

Why It’s Still Hard to Find the Job You Really Want

workers at construction site
Don Mason—Gallery Stock

The U.S. economy is adding jobs at a surprisingly fast pace. They just might not be the ones you want.

The U.S. added 321,000 new jobs in November, according to the Labor Department. Although unemployment remained unchanged at 5.8%, the new jobs number beat most economists’ estimates. The strong results follow news on Tuesday that the economy grew at a 3.9% clip in the third quarter. Combined with the preceding period, that represents the fastest six-month expansion in more than a decade.

And yet the job market still feels sluggish for many middle-income job seekers, or those looking for a job that’s better than what they’ve got now.

The problem is that the post-recession economy is still better at producing marginal jobs—think retail and food service gigs—than the comparatively well-paying construction, manufacturing, and government jobs that let middle-class people buy homes and support their families.

That’s led to what some call a “low-wage recovery.” As recently as August, the National Employment Law Project, a labor group, calculated that 41% of job growth in the previous year was in low-wage industries, compared with just 26% in middle-wage industries.

A look at Friday’s numbers suggests that dynamic starting to change, but slowly.

The U.S. added 50,000 more retail jobs in November. There were also 27,000 additional jobs in bars and restaurants.

That kind of growth outpaced growth in sectors like construction, which added 20,000 jobs, and government, which added just 7,000. One bright spot was manufacturing. Economists have long warned this sector, hobbled by trends like automation and competition from low wage countries, isn’t ever likely resume it’s former stature. It’s been making something of comeback nonetheless: 28,000 manufacturing jobs were created in November.

Moody’s Analytics economist Ryan Sweet argues the jobs picture will steadily improve for middle income workers. On Thursday, he forecast construction hiring would continue to show gains in 2015 and 2016, driven in part by the housing market, where supply is getting tight again—Moody’s Analytics recently estimated rental vacancy rates at 20-year lows. Meanwhile, steadily improving GDP should replenish state and local tax coffers, allowing governments to start hiring again. Even Detroit, one of the recession’s biggest victims, has seen its prospects improve. Pointing to low oil prices, Sweet cited a forecast that automakers could sell 17 million cars next year.

These are all the kinds of trends you’d expect to see in a recovery—the surprise is how many years it has taken to get to this point.

 

TIME

U.S. Adds 321,000 Jobs, the Most in Nearly 3 Years

A now hiring sign is posted in window of an O' Reilly auto parts store on Nov. 7, 2014 in San Rafael, Calif.
A now hiring sign is posted in window of an O' Reilly auto parts store on Nov. 7, 2014 in San Rafael, Calif. Justin Sullivan—Getty Images

Job gains have averaged 241,000 a month this year

(WASHINGTON) — U.S. employers added 321,000 jobs in November, the biggest burst of hiring in nearly three years and the latest sign that the United States is outperforming other economies throughout the developed world.

The Labor Department also said Friday that 44,000 more jobs were added in September and October combined than the government had previously estimated. Job gains have averaged 241,000 a month this year, putting 2014 on track to be the strongest year for hiring since 1999.

The unemployment rate remained at a six-year low of 5.8 percent last month.

The robust job gains come after the economy expanded from April through September at its fastest pace in 11 years. The additional jobs should help boost growth in coming months.

Still, the healthy hiring levels have yet to boost most Americans’ paychecks significantly.

The improving U.S. job market contrasts with weakness elsewhere around the globe. Growth among the 18 European nations in the euro alliance is barely positive, and the eurozone’s unemployment rate is 11.5 percent. Japan is in recession.

China’s growth has slowed as it seeks to rein in excessive lending tied to real estate development. Other large developing countries, including Russia and Brazil, are also straining to grow.

Most economists say the United States will likely continue to strengthen despite the sluggishness overseas. The U.S. economy is much less dependent on exports than are Germany, China and Japan. U.S. growth is fueled more by its large domestic market and free-spending consumers, who account for about 70 percent of the economy.

That trend helps support the steady U.S. job growth. Most of the industries that have enjoyed the strongest job gains depend on the U.S. market rather than on overseas demand. Retailers, restaurants and hotels, and education and health care, for example, have been among the most consistent sources of healthy hiring since the recession officially ended in 2009.

Manufacturing, which is more exposed to overseas ups and downs, has added jobs for most of the recovery but in smaller numbers. That is a likely reason why pay growth has been tepid since the recession ended. Companies and industries that are more exposed to international competition typically pay higher salaries.

Temporary hiring for the winter holidays may be providing a boost, though it isn’t clear how much occurred last month and how much in December. Shipping companies have announced ambitious plans: UPS has said it expects to add up to 95,000 seasonal workers, up from 85,000 last year. FedEx plans to hire 50,000, up from 40,000.

The National Retail Federation estimates that seasonal retail hiring could grow about 4 percent to as high as 800,000.

Most recent figures on the economy have been encouraging. Americans are buying more cars, which will likely keep factories busy in coming months. Auto sales last month rose to their second-fastest pace this year. Car sales are on track to rise 6 percent this year from 2013.

And a survey by the Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing managers, showed that services firms expanded at nearly the fastest pace in eight years last month. Retailers, hotels, construction firms and other service companies added jobs, the survey found, though more slowly than in October.

The ISM’s separate survey of manufacturing firms showed that factories are expanding at a brisk pace. New orders and order backlogs rose, pointing to steady growth in coming months.

There have been some signs of moderating growth. Consumer spending rose only modestly in October. And businesses ordered fewer big-ticket manufactured goods that month, excluding the volatile aircraft category. That indicates that companies are holding back on investment.

As a result, most economists have forecast that the economy will slow in the final three months of the year to an annual pace of 2.5 percent. That would be down from a 4.3 percent pace from April to September, the fastest six-month pace since 2003.

TIME Innovation

Five Best Ideas of the Day: December 1

The Aspen Institute is an educational and policy studies organization based in Washington, D.C.

1. Though manufacturing jobs — particularly in the auto industry — are making a comeback, the wages are low and not even keeping up with inflation.

By Catherine Ruckelshaus and Sarah Leberstein at the National Employment Law Project

2. Simple, human-centered adaptive technology can change lives for people with disabilities.

By Krithika Krishnamurthy in Economic Times

3. As the military finally integrates men and women, gender-segregated recruit training in the Marines must end.

By Lieutenant Colonel Kevin G. Collins in Marine Corps Gazette

4. A neutral review board — not the police department itself — should review officer-involved shootings.

By Michael Bell in Politico

5. After two peaceful elections, Tunisia demonstrates that fixing politics is easier than remaking a nation, and the problems that sparked the Arab Spring persist.

By Sam Kimball and Nicholas Linn in Quartz

The Aspen Institute is an educational and policy studies organization based in Washington, D.C.

TIME Ideas hosts the world's leading voices, providing commentary and expertise on the most compelling events in news, society, and culture. We welcome outside contributions. To submit a piece, email ideas@time.com.

TIME

Applications for US Jobless Aid Jump to 313,000

The increase is unlikely to raise concerns about the broader health of the job market

(WASHINGTON) — The number of people seeking U.S. unemployment benefits jumped last week, pushing total applications above 300,000 for the first time in nearly three months.

The Labor Department says weekly applications rose 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 313,000, the highest level since the first week of September. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, rose 6,250 to 294,000.

The increase is unlikely to raise concerns about the broader health of the job market. At least some of the rise occurred because of seasonal layoffs in businesses affected by the cold weather, such as construction. The department seeks to control for such seasonal factors but doesn’t always do so perfectly.

Applications had been under 300,000 for 10 straight weeks, an unusually low level that indicates companies are laying off few workers.

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