MONEY Housing Market

Why More Home Buyers May Be Trading Up to Bigger Digs This Spring

fish jumping into bigger fishtank
Phil Ashley—Getty Images

A tight inventory of houses for sale has been stymying buyers who want to trade up. That could change soon.

Joe and Debbie Valerio, a couple in their 60s, put their Westport, Conn., home of more than 20 years on the market because it was getting too big for them.

When they found a nearby condo they loved, they pounced. That set off a chain reaction allowing Peter and Leah Baiocco, a couple in their 30s, the ability to trade up.

The Baioccos lived a few miles away, contemplating a future move to a bigger home once kids came along. With favorable economic conditions, they jumped at the chance to buy the Valerios’ $2.7 million house last April. After renting it out for nearly a year, the Baioccos’ starter house in Fairfield, Conn. is on the market for $739,000.

This seemingly simple sequence of events is still relatively rare in the U.S. housing recovery. Despite an improving economy and rock-bottom rates, inventory of available homes is inconsistent. Anything more than a trickle of listings sends prices down, causing sellers to pull their homes off the market.

Then prices go up again because competition gets fierce, and sellers re-emerge. As a result, a bustle of trade-up activity is expected for this spring’s selling season, before conditions change again.

“I think a lot of people have made a lot of money in the stock market the last few years. People who want to enjoy a luxury home, now is the time. Everyone has more cash available to them,” says Ken Barber, a real estate agent in Wellesley, Mass.

Other positive signs: new single-family housing starts are at a high since 2008, according to the Commerce Department’s latest report.

Also, fewer homeowners are renting out their homes to delay selling them, down to 35% in 2014 from 39% in 2013, according to Redfin, a real-estate brokerage.

And more consumers have positive equity. Last spring, 19% of homeowners in Redfin markets (such as Atlanta and Philadelphia) had low or negative equity. That was down to 11% in November. Nela Richardson, Redfin’s chief economist, expects it to hit 8% by March 2015.

Even better for buyers, interest rates are near-historic lows below 4%. “The question of staying versus leaving is shifting. For people who were afraid to leave their mortgage because they thought it was the best they’re ever going to get, now there is another good mortgage around the corner,” Richardson says.

Those trading up in 2015 should hit a sweet spot of selling near the top but not buying at the top, says Margaret Wilcox, an agent from agent in Glastonbury, Conn., for William Raveis.

Wilcox says a client couple recently traded up from a $500,000 house to a $1 million home. They did not get quite the price they wanted for the sale of their old home, but they got a discount of nearly $300,000 on their new purchase, Wilcox says.

There are a few red flags for buyers and sellers. Seller confidence is still low, with just 35% of sellers thinking now was a good time to sell, versus 48% the previous year, according to Redfin.

Keith Jurow, a housing market analyst who writes the Capital Preservation Real Estate Report, is something of a doomsayer and thinks talk of a housing recovery “is phony and only an illusion,” he says.

Given the number of mortgages originated between 2004 and 2010, he feels that too many of the people who would like to trade up still have little or no equity in their homes and are not prepared to do a sale below their purchase price.

“Unless you bring more cash to the table, you can’t trade up,” Jurow says.

Also, foreboding makes some people want to act now. They do not want to be the family that missed their chance, adds Bob Walters, chief economist for Quicken Loans. “People won’t delay forever,” he says.

The Valerios and the Baioccos have only happy thoughts about their real estate choices. They love their new homes.

“In our mind, it’s the house we’re going to be in forever,” says Peter Baiocco.

TIME Michigan

General Motors to Debut Detroit’s First Shipping Container Home

Shipping Container Homestead
An unusual home takes shape inside General Motors’ Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly plant in Detroit, intended to be part of a movement to rebuild the city’s economy and deteriorating, disappearing housing stock. Carlos Osorio—AP

The city emerging from bankruptcy has roughly 40,000 vacant homes waiting to be demolished

(DETROIT) — An unusual home taking shape inside General Motors’ sprawling Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly plant is intended to be part of a movement to rebuild the city’s economy and deteriorating, disappearing housing stock.

Skilled-trades workers, taking breaks from their tasks at the factory that produces the electric Chevrolet Volt and other vehicles, dart in and out to do door, window and wall installation and framing, as well as electrical and plumbing work. Meanwhile, a nonprofit urban farming group is preparing property a few miles away that will welcome the project, what’s believed to be the city’s first occupied shipping container homestead.

Come spring, the house-in-progress will be delivered to Detroit’s North End neighborhood and secured on a foundation where a blighted home once stood. After finishing touches and final inspections, the 40-foot-long former container will feature 320 square feet of living space with two bedrooms, a bathroom and a kitchen, and will serve as home base for a university-student caretakers of a neighborhood farm and agricultural research activities.

One shipping container home won’t turn around Detroit’s housing woes. The city emerging from bankruptcy has roughly 40,000 vacant homes waiting to be demolished. But it’s a start and, organizers hope, a model to lure and keep residents as Detroit removes blight and recovers from bankruptcy.

Shipping containers converted into living or working spaces are common in some other cities. For instance, in Salt Lake City’s rundown warehouse district, a nonprofit group last year converted them into “micro-retail” spaces. A Seattle-based company designs and builds houses out of reclaimed containers.

Containers have been modified for both basic and luxury living elsewhere. But Tyson Gersh of the Michigan Urban Farming Initiative is unaware of another project involving a major manufacturer and nonprofit designed to serve many socio-economic needs through what he calls “social innovation.”

Organizers hope the container project can lure millennials who don’t want their grandfather’s bungalow yet also provide predominantly poor, longtime residents with a low-cost housing alternative.

“Finding a place where both those communities can find common ground is beautiful,” said Gersh, president and co-founder of the group that operates a farm and owns property in the North End, where blight and vacancy are common, but so are signs of residential and commercial renewal. “It’s scalable, works for everyone and it’s also not going to ruin the environment. It’s easier to maintain and can repurpose existing materials.”

Gersh said reusing the containers and other components has environmental benefits but points out that people working solely toward that end “are doing it from a position of privilege,” and that’s “not what Detroit is.”

For its part, the automaker met with Gersh and others from the farming group a couple years ago, and the container home idea immediately resonated. GM spokesman David Darovitz said it fits with the company’s goals of reducing landfill waste while boosting reuse and recycling of materials. For instance, the home’s front door had been discarded by the plant and was salvaged on its way to the landfill.

“I loved the creative idea of taking and reusing an old shipping container and giving new life,” Darovitz said. “It can be used as a model for a bigger idea that’s structurally sound.”

Both GM and the nonprofit see the potential to grow the idea and are exploring ways to continue. But first they must finish a process that’s faced many challenges, including the long wait for the existing home on the lot to default into tax auction and finding a functional sewer line.

Another roadblock to building more storage container homes is figuring out how to price them. Now, Darovitz said, there is nothing to assess them against, since neighboring lots often are blighted or vacant.

Still, those involved aren’t deterred and view the effort as a microcosm of the kind needed to rejuvenate Detroit. They take inspiration from how city, state and federal officials forged deals with financial institutions and lassoed philanthropic organizations to save pensions and city-owned artwork and get through bankruptcy.

“That is Detroit — that’s what’s happening,” Gersh said. “It takes a village to make a functional city.”

 

MONEY home prices

What to Expect From the Housing Market in 2015

aerial view of subdivision
David Sucsy

Consumers think 2015 will be a better year than 2014, especially for selling a home. But the recovery faces an uphill climb.

What does 2015 have in store for the housing market? Nine years after the housing bubble peaked and three years after home prices bottomed, the boom and bust still cast a long shadow. None of the five measures we track in our Housing Barometer is back to normal yet, though three are getting close. The rebound effect drove the recovery after the bust but is now fading. Prices are no longer significantly undervalued and investor demand is falling. Ideally, strong economic and demographic fundamentals like job growth and household formation would take up the slack. But the virtuous cycle of gains in jobs and housing is relatively weak, and that will slow the recovery in 2015. All the same, consumers are optimistic, according to our survey of 2,008 American adults conducted November 6-10, 2014.

Consumers Expect 2015 to Be Better, Especially for Selling a Home

Consumers are as optimistic about the housing market as at any point since the recovery started. Nearly three-quarters — 74% — of respondents agreed that home ownership was part of achieving their personal American Dream, the same level as in our 2013 Q4 survey and slightly above the levels of the three previous years. For young adults, the dream has revived: 78% of 18-34 year-olds answered yes to our American Dream question, up from 73% in 2013 Q4 and a low of 65% in 2011 Q3.

AmericanDream

 

Furthermore, 93% of young renters plan to buy a home someday. That’s unchanged from 2012 Q4 despite rising home prices and worsening affordability.

Which real estate activities do consumers think will improve in 2015? All of them – but especially selling. Fully 36% said 2015 will be much or a little better than 2014 for selling a home. Just 16% said 2015 will be much or a little worse, a difference of 20 percentage points. The rest of the respondents said 2015 would be neither better nor worse, or weren’t sure. More consumers said 2015 will be better than 2014 for buying too. But the margin over those who said 2015 will be worse was not as wide.

BetterorWorse

 

Despite this optimism, barriers remain to homeownership. Saving for a down payment is still the highest hurdle, as it was last year, followed by poor credit and qualifying for a mortgage. Not having a stable job has become considerably less of an obstacle, dropping to 24% this year compared with 36% last year thanks to the recovering job market. But affordability has become a bigger obstacle. Some 32% of respondents cited rising home prices, compared with 22% last year.

BiggestObstacle

 

Housing Recovery in 2015: Rebound Effect to Fade Before Fundamentals Can Take Over

Different engines power each stage of the housing recovery. During the early years—roughly 2012 to 2014 – the rebound effect drove the recovery. Investors and other buyers scooped up undervalued homes and took advantage of foreclosures and short sales, boosting overall sales volumes. Local markets hit hardest in the housing bust posted the largest price rebounds. Now, though, the rebound effect is fading. Price levels and price changes are both approaching normal, foreclosure inventories are dwindling, and investors are pulling back. This is inevitable as the market improves and therefore shifts to slower, more sustainable price increases and a healthier mix of home sales.

So what replaces the rebound effect in the next stage of the housing recovery? The market increasingly depends on fundamentals such as job growth, rising incomes, and more household formation. But here’s the hitch: These fundamental drivers of supply and demand haven’t returned to full strength. They aren’t able to fully take the reins from the rebound effect. Importantly, the share of young adults with jobs is still less than halfway back to normal, many young adults are still living with their parents, and income growth is sluggish. This points to a tricky handoff, and means housing activity in 2015 might disappoint by some measures, though the rental market will remain vigorous.

Here’s what we expect:

  • Price gains slow, but affordability worsens. Price gains slowed in 2014 and we’ll see more of the same in 2015. In October 2014, prices increased4% year-over-year, down from 10.6% in October 2013. The slowdown has been especially sharp in metros that had a severe housing bust followed by a big rebound. Now, prices nationwide are just 3% undervalued relative to fundamentals. That leaves fewer bargains and scant room for prices to rise without becoming overvalued. What’s more, with consumers expecting 2015 to be a better year to sell than 2014, more homes should come onto the market, cooling prices further. Nevertheless, despite slowing price gains,home-buying affordability will worsen in 2015 for two reasons. First, even these smaller price increases will almost surely outpace income growth. In 2013, incomes rose just 1.8% year-over-year in nominal terms, and a negligible 0.3% after adjusting for inflation. Second, the strengthening economy and the Fed’s response should push up mortgage rates.
  • The rental market will keep burning bright. Next year will see strong rental demand and lots of new supply. The demand will come from young people leaving homes belonging to parents or roommates and renting their own places. Until now, they’ve been slow to leave the nest. But the 2014 job gains for 25-34 year-olds should lead to the rise in household formation we’ve been waiting years for. At the same time, the 2014 apartment construction boom will mean more supply in 2015 since multi-unit buildings take about a year to build. Will rent gains slow? Probably – provided that this new supply keeps up with formation of renter households. This surge of renters will probably cause the homeownership rate to fall. To be sure, the ranks of homeowners will probably rise. But an even larger number of young adults will enter the housing market as renters.
  • Single-family starts and new home sales could disappoint. While apartment construction is breaking records, single-family housing starts and new home sales are still not much better than half of normal levels. They’ll improve in 2015, but not as much as we’d like. Our consumer survey suggests more people will try to sell existing homes. That would add to the supply on the market and possibly reduce demand for new homes. Also, the strongest source of housing demand will be young people getting jobs and forming households. But they’ll be moving into rentals and saving for a down payment rather than buying homes right away. Finally, the vacancy rate for single-family homes is still near its recession high, which discourages new construction. The apartment construction boom shows that where there’s demand, builders will build. But buyer demand for single-family homes simply hasn’t recovered enough to support near-normal levels of single-family starts or new home sales.

If these predictions for 2015 sound similar to our predictions for 2014, you’re right. As the rebound effect fades and fundamentals take over, the recovery gets slower and the market starts to look more similar from one year to the next. But there’s good news here. Even though the recovery remains unfinished, the housing market is becoming more stable and more certain for buyers, sellers, and renters.

Markets to Watch in 2015

As the rebound effect fades, our 10 markets to watch have strong fundamentals for housing activity. These include solid job growth, which fuels housing demand, and a low vacancy rate, which spurs construction. We gave a few extra points to markets with a higher share of millennials. These young adults are getting back to work and that will drive household formation and rental demand. We didn’t include markets where prices looked at least 5% overvalued in our latest Bubble Watch report. Here are our markets to watch, in alphabetical order:

  1. Boston, MA
  2. Dallas, TX
  3. Fresno, CA
  4. Middlesex County, MA
  5. Nashville, TN
  6. New York, NY-NJ
  7. Raleigh, NC
  8. Salt Lake City, UT
  9. San Diego, CA
  10. Seattle, WA

MarketstoWatch1

 

These markets are spread across the country: Boston, Middlesex County (just west of Boston), and New York in the Northeast; Dallas, Nashville, and Raleigh in the South (the Census considers Texas part of the South); and Fresno, Salt Lake City, San Diego, and Seattle in the West. No Midwestern metros make the list because they generally have slower job growth and higher vacancy rates than other markets, even though many are quite affordable and prices are rebounding.

In 2015, more markets will settle back into their long-term housing patterns. Fast-growing markets that boomed last decade, collapsed in the bust, and then rebounded are now leveling off. Even the markets that have been slowest to recover and have struggled longest are seeing foreclosure inventories decline and the sales mix moving back toward normal.

At the same time, first-time homeownership, single-family starts, and new home sales won’t come close to fully recovering in 2015. But if 2015 brings strong job growth, big income gains, and the long-awaited jump in household formation, then 2016 could be the year when we see a major turnaround in homeownership and single-family construction.

MONEY mortgages

Here Come Cheap Mortgages for Millennials. Should We Worry?

young couple admiring their new home
Justin Horrocks—Getty Images

The federal agencies that guarantee most mortgages are launching new loan programs that require only 3% down payments for first-time buyers. Is this the start of financial crisis redux?  

According to new research from Trulia, in metro areas teeming with millennials, such as Austin, Honolulu, New York, and San Diego, more than two-thirds of the homes for sale are out of reach for the typical millennial household.

That goes a long way to explaining why first-time homebuyers have recently accounted for about one-third of homes sales, according to the National Association of Realtors, down from a historic norm of about 40%. And it should concern you even if you’re not a millennial or related to one: A shortage of first-time buyers makes it harder for households that want to trade up to find potential buyers; and spending by homeowners for homes and housing-related services accounts for about 15% of GDP.

Now the federal government appears intent on reversing the trend — or at least on easing the pain of the still-sluggish housing industry.

Trulia’s dire analysis assumes that buyers need to make a 20% down payment — a high hurdle for anyone, let along a younger adult. But Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government agencies that guarantee the vast majority of mortgages, this week launched new loan options that will require down payments of as little as 3% for first-time buyers (and, in limited instances, refinancers as well). Fannie’s program will be live next week; Freddie’s, which will be available to repeat buyers as well, will launch in early spring.

Before you get all “Isn’t that the sort of lax standard that fueled the financial crisis!?”, it’s important to realize significant differences between now and then.

The only deals that will qualify for the 3%-down programs are plain-vanilla 30-year fixed-rate loans. No adjustable-rate deals, no teaser-rate come-ons, and, lordy, no interest-only payment options. And flippers are not welcome; the home must be the borrower’s principal residence.

Both Fannie Mae’s MyCommunityMortgage and Freddie Mac’s Home Possible Mortgage program are aimed at moderate-income households. For example, to qualify for Fannie Mae’s program, household income must typically be below the area median. Income limits are relaxed a bit in some high cost areas, such as the State of California (up to 140% of the local median) and pricey counties in New York (165% of the median).

That said, lenders will be allowed to extend these loans to borrowers with credit scores as low as 620. That’s even lower than the average 661 FICO credit score for Federal Housing Administration-insured loan applications that were turned down in October, according to mortgage data firm Ellie Mae. (The average FICO credit score for FHA approved loans was 683.)

Like FHA-insured loans, the new 3% mortgages offered by Fannie and Freddie will require home buyers have private mortgage insurance (PMI). That can add significantly to mortgage costs.

For example, a $300,000 home purchased with a 3.5% fixed rate loan and a 3% down payment would have monthly principal and interest charges of about $1,300 a month. The PMI adds another $240 or so to the monthly cost; that’s nearly 20% of the base monthly mortgage amount. (You can estimate the bite of PMI using Zillow’s Mortgage Calculator.)

But one significant advantage the new Fannie/Freddie loan programs have over the FHA program is that they will allow homeowners to cancel their PMI once their home equity reaches at least 20%. Beginning in 2013, the annual insurance charge on FHA-insured loans, currently 1.35% of the loan balance, can never be cancelled regardless of whether the borrower has more than 20% equity.

 

MONEY housing

Fannie, Freddie Announce Plans to Back 3% Down-Payment Mortgages

According to officials with the companies the move is designed to help those with lower income and good credit to afford homes.

MONEY housing

Housing Prices Bounce Back In October

After September numbers seemed to show a slowdown in the housing market recovery, October figures are a little more promising.

MONEY housing

How to Cut Your Single Biggest Expense in Retirement

bouncy castle in suburbia
An age-proof home is one where you can live safely, comfortably, and conveniently in your older years. Sian Kennedy—Getty Images

You're going to spend a lot on housing in retirement. Here's how to make sure your home serves your needs as you age.

The single biggest expense you face in retirement is housing, which accounts for more than 40% of spending for people 65 and older, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Yet all too often, you end up shelling out those bucks for places that don’t serve your needs well as you age.

By age 85, for example, two-thirds of people have some type of disability. If you can’t get around your house or community or you don’t have easy access to the medical and social services you need, you could land in a costly nursing home prematurely, according to a Harvard Center for Joint Housing and AARP study.

“People don’t think about how their home will support their needs until they face a health issue,” says Amy Levner, manager of the Livable Communities initiative at AARP. “It doesn’t have to be a catastrophe either. Even something as simple as a knee replacement could make it difficult to stay in your home or drive, at least short term.”

Here are 3 ways to make sure you’ll stay comfortable in your home as you get older.

1. Get your house in shape: Three-quarters of people would prefer to stay in their current home as long as possible in retirement, according to AARP. Yet just 20% live in a house with features to help them live safely and comfortably there in their older years. Among them: a first-floor bedroom and bath so you can live on the main level if stairs become hard to climb, wider doorways that make getting around easier if you need a walker or wheelchair, and covered entrances so you don’t slip in rain or snow.

Those can be pricey renovations, so the best time to do the work is while you are still employed so that you can use current income to pay the bill instead of tapping savings, says Levner. But many adaptations that make a big difference when you’re older are inexpensive. Those include raising electrical outlets to make them easier to reach, putting grab bars and a shower chair in the bathroom, and installing nonslip gripper mats under area rugs. (A list of the most important steps to take and their typical cost is below.)

2. Take it down a notch: To save money without necessarily moving far away—two-thirds of people want to remain in their hometown when they retire, AARP says—you can downsize to a less expensive, more manageable house. You could use the proceeds from the sale of your current home to add to your retirement savings, while significantly cutting maintenance costs.

The potential savings, based on estimates from the Center for Retirement Research, are compelling. If you move from a $250,000 house to a $150,000 one, for instance, you could net $75,000 to add to your savings, after paying moving and closing costs (typically 10% of the sale price). Meanwhile, your annual bill for upkeep would probably fall from around $8,125 to $4,875, assuming typical property taxes, insurance, and maintenance of about 3.25% of the home’s value. These calculations assume that you own your home outright; if you still have a mortgage, the savings you would reap from downsizing might be even bigger.

141118_ret_ageproof_1

Move in step with your peers: Relocating can also help you cut expenses if you move to an area with lower taxes and a cheaper cost of living. Look for places that have good public transit, transportation services for seniors, and walkable, bike-friendly neighborhoods that are a short distance to stores and entertainment and close to medical facilities.

Where should you go? AARP is now working with dozens of places to create age-friendly communities. They include Birmingham, Denver, Des Moines, and Westchester County in New York (find the list at aarp.org/agefriendly). Next spring AARP will launch an online index with livability data about every community in the U.S. For more inspiration, check out MONEY’s Best Places to Retire.

MONEY Millennials

What Everyone Gets Wrong About Millennials and Home Buying

Millennials on porch in suburbia
Katherine Wolkoff—Trunk Archive

Conventional wisdom says that millennials are a new and different generation. But when it comes to housing, they're likely to be more conservative and traditional than their parents were.

If you’ve come across any stories mentioning millennials and home ownership, you’ve likely heard this refrain: Young people just aren’t very interested in buying a house. Instead, the story goes, they want to rent a cool apartment, live in a city, and walk to coffee shops. Forever.

This narrative was eloquently expressed in a recent New York Times article about a hip, 30-year-old, unmarried couple choosing to rent in a swanky Virginia high-rise. What made these millennials pick a rental apartment over a nest of their very own? The developer of the couple’s new home, Joshua Solomon, had his theories:

“That generation of folks has seen people really get hurt by homeownership,” said Mr. Solomon, president of the company, which is based in Waltham, Mass. “The petal has really fallen off the rose as it pertains to homeownership. People don’t want to be tied down to a mortgage they can’t get out of quickly.”

Sounds like a reasonable conclusion, right? Multi-unit construction is up, after all, and first-time home buyers are in historically short supply.

But if you dig a little deeper, both Solomon’s generalization and the “millennials don’t really want to own homes” trope turn out to be largely untrue. A number of surveys have shown that the vast majority of millennials would love to own a place of their own. Recent research from housing site Zillow, for example, found that adults age 22 to 34 are actually more eager to own a home than older Americans.

According to Zillow’s data, young married couples in which both partners work (represented by the orange line in the left graph below) currently own homes at a rate close to or above historical norms for their demographic. Even single employed millennials (the yellow line in the right graph) are slightly more likely to own a home than their counterparts in the ’70s, ’80s, and ’90s.

Zillow

So if young adults want homes more than previous generations, why is their homeownership rate at a historic low? The answer is that millennials are getting married later in life, and not having two income streams makes it much harder to scratch together a down payment.

From 1960 to 2011, Americans’ median age at the time of their first marriage increased by six years, to around 29 from 23 for men and 26 from 20 for women, according to Census data. Then came the financial crisis, which pushed marriage back even further by making financial stability—a marital prerequisite for many— a rarity among recent college graduates. According to one recent study from the University of Arizona, only about half of adults ages 23 to 26 and at least one year out of college have a full-time job.

As a result, the millennial generation’s overall home purchases are down—but they probably won’t be down forever. Zillow’s analysis shows that if millennials were marrying at the same pace as previous generations, their rate of homeownership would be 33%, four percentage points higher than now and roughly the same as in the 1990s. Once this generation begins to tie the knot, the evidence suggests, it’ll be buying homes at least as frequently as older Americans once did.

Old School Values

In fact, there’s some evidence that home ownership is more important to millennials than it is to Gen Xers or boomers. In a recent survey, forty-six percent of respondents ages 18 to 34 told Zillow they believe “owning a home is necessary to being a respected member of society,” and 65% said “owning a home is necessary to live The Good Life and The American Dream.” Both results were higher (in most cases, significantly higher) than older age groups.

America’s newest generation—post-millennials—are perhaps the most old-fashioned of all. A shocking 97% of teens age 13 to 17 believe they will one day own a home, and 82% say homeownership is the most important part of the American dream. If anything, buying a home seems to be getting more attractive, not less.

So millennials really want a home, but they still want a cool home, right? One that’s urban, and different, and close to a Blue Bottle Coffee? Maybe when they’re still young and single, but a large amount of evidence suggests that even today’s young adults look to the suburbs once children come along. Highly dense “core cities” like San Francisco and New York are attractive to millennials looking for fun and adventure, but they’re also extremely expensive to live in when dependents enter the picture.

Research suggests a negative correlation between big cities and child populations. City Journal found that between 2000 and 2010, the population of children 14 and younger fell by 500,000 in the country’s densest urban areas, including Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York. As children disappeared from cities, the nation’s 51 largest metro areas lost 15% of adults 25 to 34—the same age range when many begin to marry and start families. “While it’s not possible to determine where they went,” the Journal noted, “suburbs saw an average 14 percent gain in that population during the same period.”

Mollie Carmichael, principal at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, is already seeing millennials flee cities to more child-friendly environments. “We do find that the millennials want to be in urban areas, but usually when they’re not married and they’re renting” says Carmichael. “But the trigger is marriage, and then frankly they want more traditional areas and more traditional environments than even their parents. They want suburban; they want single-family detached; they want a yard.”

What about millennials’ much-reported fixation on urban-ness? There’s some truth to it, Carmichael acknowledges, but “urban to them means they want the ability to walk to the park and walk to the Starbucks. It’s more about accessibility, and that could be driving to those great places they want to go.”

In the end, America’s newest adult generation isn’t that different from the previous ones. Millennials may Instagram their new home instead of sending photos through the mail, but not much else has changed.

TIME Hong Kong

Watch Hong Kong’s Poor Demand Their Say in the Way the City Is Run

Lower-income groups have a huge stake in democracy protests currently rocking the city

After more than three weeks of pro-democracy protests that have paralyzed parts of Hong Kong, anger at the city’s leader has reached an all time high.

They were exacerbated even further when Chief Executive Leung Chun-Ying told reporters Monday that if he gave in to protesters demands and held an open election, it would result in the city’s lower-income groups dominating politics.

Leung’s comments affect half of the population of Hong Kong who earn HK$14,000 ($1,800) a month.

In response, a group of protesters made up of civil society and political organizations marched to Government House Wednesday demanding an apology.

Amy Tse Tsz-ying, a social worker, told TIME that if half of the people in society are not represented in government then Hong Kong’s social problems will never improve.

“Democracy is highly related to the living conditions of grassroots people,” she said.

The chances of getting an apology out of Leung are slim but the march showed that the pro-democracy movement is not just about lofty ideals but rooted in real social problems

TIME housing

Berkeley May Ban ‘No-Pet’ Restrictions on Apartments

Avocado
A dog named Avocado looks over a cliff overlooking the fog-covered Pacific Ocean while on a hike on Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2014, in San Francisco. Marcio Jose Sanchez — ASSOCIATED PRESS

The all-pets-welcome rule that would be the first of its kind in the nation is raising landlords' hackles

Updated Oct. 21, 3:07 p.m. ET

According to Craigslist, there are about 14,867 apartments and houses available for rent in the San Francisco Bay Area as of late October. Limit those to apartments that are cat- and dog-friendly, and the rental stock plummets to less than one-third that number. But residents in Berkeley may soon find themselves less limited, if a new proposal to outlaw pet restrictions passes muster.

Berkeley City Councilman Jesse Arreguin is expected on Tuesday to officially ask the city’s housing and animal care commissions to explore the effects of banning “no pet” policies—laying groundwork for more specific legislation later on. If passed, such a law would be the first of its kind, according to housing industry groups and the American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (ASPCA).

Arreguin’s office told TIME that while details are still in flux, the proposal could require all landlords to accept tenants’ pet dogs and cats, as well as “small house pets” ranging from rabbits to reptiles. The caveat for owners is that their animal must be able to be “reasonably accommodated” and must be well-behaved, not disturbing other renters. Owners could also become obligated to purchase pet insurance, and take care of any property damage caused by the pets, even if it exceeds their security deposit.

Arreguin’s chief of staff, Anthony Sanchez, says that the measure was partly born out of confusion over “emotional support animal” rules. In addition to state law allowing animals that help with disabilities such as blindness, renters can also currently get a note from their doctor saying they need Fluffy or Fido to help with conditions like anxiety. Sanchez says this has led to concerns from landlords about whether the renters truly have a legal basis for keeping their pet, as well as conflicts among tenants in buildings that generally do not allow pets.

“We noticed more and more tenants and landlords having disputes,” Sanchez says. “This seems like a way to address all those issues.” In other words, Arreguin believes that simply allowing all pets, but tightening regulation of how people care for their animals within a rental situation, would eliminate the confusion.

Many local landlords say this dog won’t hunt. Some have complained about potential property damage, like animals scratching up hardwood floors or leaving lingering smells. The caveat that animals be “reasonably accommodated,” Sanchez says, is meant to give landlords some leeway here—like saying that a Great Dane cannot be reasonably kept in a studio apartment, or that one renter cannot reasonably keep 12 cats nextdoor to a renter who is deathly allergic.

Arreguin’s office says such a law could help keep animals off the streets and out of shelters, given that some owners give up their pets when they move into a new apartment that won’t allow animals. Sanchez says that with the new law, it might be feasible to require pet owners to register, spay, tag and vaccinate their furry loved ones before a landlord allows them to occupy a unit.

The ASPCA tells TIME that the organization supports any efforts to get animals into homes. Legislative director Kevin O’Neill also noted that while “there are laws in place to limit landlords from banning pets mid-lease or requiring cats to be declawed as a condition of a lease, the ASPCA is not aware of any law that institutes a complete ban on pet restrictions for apartments.”

After hearing the proposal at Tuesday’s meeting, Berkeley’s city commissioners could take three or four months to return with a well-educated report on how to best propose the law. Until then, the city’s pets will be left nervously tapping their paws.

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