MONEY Housing Market

Why Americans Aren’t Moving Long Distances Anymore

House-shaped handcuffs
Ryan Etter—Getty Images

Fewer than 12% of Americans changed homes in the past year, near the all-time low. But the reasons why people go or stay are changing.

Yesterday the Census released the Current Population Survey (CPS) data, giving an up-to-date picture on how many Americans are moving, how far they’re going, and why they’re making that move. The mobility rate remains at a low level: 11.7% of Americans moved in the year ending March 2014, unchanged from the previous period.

At this rate, the typical American stays put eight and a half years between moves. Remember the old rule of thumb that people move every seven years? Well, that was true until around 2003. In fact, the mobility rate has been falling for decades, as we pointed out in this post last year. Back in the 1950s and 1960s, Americans moved every five years on average. That rate rose to every seven years by the turn of the century and has since increased to the current eight-and-a- half year rate.

Here are the most recent mobility trends, based on this latest 2014 data.

The Long-Term Mobility Decline Continues

With the percentage of Americans moving stuck at 11.7% in 2014, mobility remains near the all-time low of 11.6% in 2011. That’s considerably below the 14% rate from the early 2000s. The housing bust and recession offer possible explanations why people are stuck in place – things like negative home equity and few job opportunities to move for. Still, mobility also declined both before and during the housing bubble. Furthermore, mobility has barely budged since 2011 despite a significant drop in the percentage of borrowers with negative equity and a modest recovery in the job market.

MobilityRate

What explains this long-term decline in mobility? Some academic researchers have found that the economic benefit of switching jobs has fallen over time. Since a job is often the reason people move, that means the economic benefits of moving have fallen. In fact, the decline in mobility has mostly been a drop in longer-distance moves, that is, moves to a different county. Moves within the same county have stayed relatively steady since 2000.

MobilityRateByMoveType

Why People Choose to Stay or Go is Shifting

The reasons why Americans move – which we think is one of the most fun questions asked in any Census survey – have changed over the course of the boom, recession, and recovery. During the boom, compared with the period after the bubble burst, more people moved to have a new or better home, or because they wanted to own instead of rent. By contrast, during the recession, the percentage of people who moved for cheaper housing went up.

Most recently, in the year ending March 2014, the percentage of people who moved because they wanted a new or better home or apartment increased. But the percentage of people who moved for cheaper housing also increased, though it didn’t return to its level in 2009, 2010, and 2011, when more people moved for cheaper housing than for a new job.

ReasonsForMoving

Continued economic recovery should boost the number of Americans who move for a job. At the same time, more homeowners are getting back above water into positive home equity, and that should also increase mobility. Yet, rising home prices and higher mortgage rates might mean that more people move in search of cheaper, rather than new or better, housing.

To see the full article, including more details about the data and analysis, click here.

To read more from Jed Kolko of Trulia, click here.

Related:
MONEY 101: Should I rent or buy?
MONEY 101: What should I do before I buy a home?

MONEY home prices

Slowing Price Gains Reveal Little Exuberance for Homes

140826_REA_HousePricesSlow
Dimitri Vervitsiotis—Getty Images

Looking ahead, the rate of home price growth may slow even further, especially if mortgage rates increase.

While housing prices continue to rise, the rate of that growth nationally slowed in June, according to a leading gauge of the real estate market.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that home prices throughout the country increased 6.2% since last year. Meanwhile, separate indexes that track 10 and 20 large U.S. cities showed gains of 8.1% during the same time period.

Though decent, those gains were a far cry from the double-digit growth in home prices late last year. Moreover, all three indexes showed deceleration from the prior month, and every city measured experienced lower year-over-year price growth.

“Home price gains continue to ease as they have since last fall,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “For the first time since February 2008, all cities showed lower annual rates than the previous month. Other housing indicators — starts, existing home sales and builders’ sentiment — are positive. Taken together, these point to a more normal housing sector.”

Blitzer also cautioned that an increase in interest rates, which Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen hinted at last week, may mean further deceleration if they lead to higher mortgage rates.

“Bargain basement mortgage rates won’t continue forever,” he said. “Recent improvements in the labor markets and comments from Fed chair Janet Yellen and others hint that interest rates could rise as soon as the first quarter of 2015. Rising mortgage rates won’t send housing into a tailspin, but will further dampen price gains.”

To be sure, home prices are still going up across the board. All cities reported higher prices for the third consecutive month, and price growth in markets such as Dallas and Denver has continued unabated.

Nationally, average home prices in June are back to Spring, 2005 levels. But city composites are still roughly 17% down from their peak prices in June/July of 2006.

MONEY Housing Market

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MONEY home prices

America’s ‘Gayborhoods’ Are a Lot More Expensive, a Lot Less Gay

Castro Street in San Francisco is decorated in rainbow flags and balloons for Gay Pride month.
Castro Street in San Francisco. Cammie Toloui—Alamy

What becomes of a trendy gay neighborhood when housing prices soar and straight people move in?

As gay acceptance has risen over the years, gay people have increasingly moved away from historically gay neighborhoods, such as the Castro in San Francisco and Chicago’s Boystown. Simultaneously, more and more straight individuals and couples have felt comfortable enough to move into these neighborhoods. As a result, many gay neighborhoods—call them “gayborhoods”—aren’t nearly as gay as they used to be.

That’s the gist of a new book called There Goes the Gayborhood? by Amin Ghaziani, an associate professor of sociology at the University of British Columbia. His research traces the changing face of gay neighborhoods and explores the implications of these shifts in cities around the U.S.

For instance, from 2000 to 2012, the number of same-sex couple households increased in nearly every neighborhood in Seattle, with one glaring exception: Capitol Hill, described as the “center of the city’s gay and counterculture communities,” according to Wikipedia, experienced a 23% decrease in same-sex households over the same time span, the Seattle Times noted.

“This isn’t unique to Seattle,” Ghaziani explained. As gays have moved far beyond gayborhoods to other parts of cities and into small towns and the suburbs, a “straightening” has taken place in neighborhoods like Capitol Hill.

Much of Ghaziani’s research is based on Chicago’s Boystown, where he lived for nearly a decade, and where the idea for the book was born. “My friends and I began to notice changes in the character and composition of the neighborhood,” he said to the Chicago Tribune “We’d notice more straight couples holding hands and more baby strollers. That became a symbol. Oftentimes a sex store would close and a nail salon would open in its place.”

The shifting demographics must be viewed as a sign of growing acceptance—that of straight people in traditionally gay neighborhoods, and of gay people throughout the land. Still, many of the sources quoted in Ghaziani’s book worry that the blurred lines could mean that much of what makes a gayborhood special will disappear. In an op-ed he wrote recently, Ghaziani quoted Dick Dadey, who was the executive director of Empire State Pride Agenda in the 1990s, explaining, “there is a portion of our community that wants to be separatist, to have a queer culture.” Still, Dadey said, “most of us want to be treated like everyone is,” and, “we want to be the neighbors next door, not the lesbian or gay couple next door.”

Then there are the financial implications of all of these shifts. “It’s impossible to discuss gay neighborhoods without considering economic factors like rent and housing prices,” Ghaziani said in an email to MONEY. He pointed out some data from Trulia in the book showing that several traditionally gay neighborhoods, like West Hollywood and New York’s West Village, are extremely expensive places to live.

Meanwhile, according to 2013 report from Trulia, prices in urban U.S. neighborhoods have been increasing at a faster pace than the suburbs, and prices soared in gay-friendly city neighborhoods in particular:

Neighborhoods where same-sex male couples account for more than 1% of all households (that’s three times the national average) had price increases, on average, of 13.8%. In neighborhoods where same-sex female couples account for more than 1% of all households, prices increased by 16.5% – more than one-and-a-half times the national increase.

These numbers are backed up by other research, such as that highlighted earlier this year by Richard Florida, the celebrated urban theorist and author of The Rise of the Creative Class. In a City Lab post, Florida summed up recent research indicating “a connection between gay neighborhoods and some of the markers of gentrification,” and that “neighborhoods that began the decade with larger concentrations of gay men saw greater income growth, and, especially in the Northeast, greater population growth as well.”

Ghaziani writes, “I don’t think gayborhoods are dying.” But Florida doesn’t sound quite as convinced, writing, “As these areas of the city continue to change, potentially pricing out some of the gay couples who moved in decades ago, gayborhoods could just as easily become a thing of the past.”

MONEY Housing Market

The 5 Cities That Have Recovered Most—and Least—From the Recession

Some areas have rebounded nicely since the financial crisis. But many have not.

On Wednesday, the Department of Commerce announced the U.S. economy grew a healthy 4% in the second quarter of 2014. The good news aligns with other positive economic signals, like an increase in hiring, and suggests the nation as a whole might be on the road to recovery.

Unfortunately, this rosy picture hasn’t been shared equally across the United States. Some areas have recovered well, while others have struggled. A new report from personal finance social network WalletHub highlights which municipalities have made the most progress toward normalcy since the downturn, and the areas that still have a way to go. To compile the list, WalletHub analyzed 18 economic metrics for the 180 largest U.S. cities, including the inflow of college-educated workers, the rate of new business growth, unemployment rates, and home price appreciation.

Here are the results.

Most Recovered Cities

Klyde Warren Park, Dallas, Texas.
Home prices in Dallas have shot up since the crisis, bolstering the city’s economy. Trevor Kobrin—Dallas CVB

1. Laredo, Texas

Over the past seven years, this Southern Texas city’s median income has increased 5% while the population has surged 13%. State-wide bankruptcy is down, and new business growth is up.

2. Irving, Texas

Irving, sandwiched between Dallas and Fort Worth, earned high marks for rising median income (up 6% since 2007) and a decreasing ratio of part-time to full-time workers. The area has seen more college-educated workers moving in.

3. Fayetteville, North Carolina

More workers moved from part-time to full-time gigs in this city than any other place. Plus more college-educated workers are coming than going, helping the population spike over 14% since 2007.

4. Denver, Colorado

The Mile High City has seen a 12% jump in median income since the financial crisis. Most impressively, it’s one of the few areas to have seen home prices completely recover (and then some) from the housing crash.

5. Dallas, Texas

Dallas is still dealing with an increased ratio of part-time to full-time workers, but median income is up nearly 4% and home prices have appreciated a shocking 17% since the housing bubble burst.

Least Recovered Cities

Newark, New Jersey
Newark, New Jersey is still struggling to come back from the financial crisis. Flickr

1. San Bernardino, California

This Southern California city ranks as the farthest away from a full recovery. Both income and housing prices have dropped since 2007, with median income down 4%, and home prices down 43%. San Bernardino’s ratio of part-time to full-time jobs has also gone up nearly 14%.

2. Stockton, California

This Northern California inland area isn’t doing so well either. Incomes are down. Home prices have severely depreciated (down more than 43% from seven years ago), and the foreclosure rate is close to 18%.

3. Boise City, Indiana

Residents of Boise City have suffered an 8% drop in their median income since the crisis. Despite there being increasingly more full-time work opportunities, relative to part-time roles, new business growth remains far below its pre-recession level, down roughly 11%.

4. Newark, New Jersey

The median income remains down almost 5% in this urban area, adjacent to New York. Homes have been hit hard too. Housing prices are about 41% lower than they were in 2007.

5. Modesto, California

This town, which neighbors depressed Stockton, also hasn’t been able to break out of its post recession funk, likely because home prices remain down about 35%, and new business growth almost 9%.

MONEY Housing Market

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MONEY buying a home

7 Ways to Get Your Kid Out of Your Basement

College students slacking off and living in parents' basement
Adam Crowley—Getty Images

If your child is one of the 14% of millennials who have moved back in with their parents, here are some tips to nudge him (or her) out the door.

For most of us, leaving the nest was a rite of passage. We went to college, and then proudly headed out into the world to make our own way, while our parents turned our old room into another guest bedroom.

However, for a significant percentage of young adults, that rite of passage is now all about returning to the roost rather than flying solo. According to Gallup research, 14% of millennials (24-to-34-year-olds) have moved back in with their parents. The homeownership rate for those under age 35 was 36.2% in the first quarter of 2014, down from a historical high of 43.1% at the end of 2005, according to Census data. According to numerous economic reports on millennials, this is attributed to a weak job market, high cost of living, significant college debt, and other factors.

These kids, as well as any adult children who have decided to move back in with mom and pop are lovingly referred to as “boomerang kids.” Clearly the analogy is obvious.

For Mom and Dad, who would love to have the ‘kids across the hall’ become the ‘kids across town,’ here are seven pointers you might want to consider:

Start Charging Rent

Cut off the free ride. Yes, it sounds harsh, but you may be doing both you and your kid a favor. Managing money and a monthly budget is something that is not learned in school, and it is certainly not learned hanging out in your parent’s converted attic for free. Give your boomerang kids a real estate reality check. If the free ride comes to a screeching halt and they are paying rent, they will probably want to do it in their own apartment, closer to (or with) their friends, near downtown or a closer drive to their office. Charge rent and enforce it. Once they start getting that first-of-the-month monetary wake up call, it might shock their system enough to have them consider alternative arrangements. If they’re going to have a landlord no matter what, they’re likely to consider a new, more independent situation.

Collect Monthly Payments

Here’s another way to give them a foot out the door – but still a leg up. Start charging them monthly payments now. Let them know that they will have to come up with the monthly equivalent to local rents each month for the next six months. At the end of the six months, you will give them back all the money when they move out. That does three things: You teach them budgeting skills, you incentivize them to move, and you give them a financial helping hand on move-out day.

Be A Strict Landlord

No parties, no loud music, no guests after 10:00 pm. Keep the house rules strict. At some point, your kid is going to want to have a little independence, and some fun too. Living with a strict landlord may just be the incentive he or she needs to find a place of their own.

Set A Deadline…and Stick To It

If you can sense that your boomerang kid is riding out his or her free meal ticket under your roof as long as they can, help them visualize when that ride will end. Create a deadline for them to move out and stick to it, no matter what. It’s likely you never intended to have kids under your roof for more than two decades, so your children need to respect that…and they need to get on with their own lives. Even in a world where millennials are underemployed compared to their Gen X, Y and Baby Boomer counterparts, there are still plenty of ways for them to make a living that enables them to live with a roommate or two or three…elsewhere.

Help Them Get Organized and Overcome The Mental Hurdle

After all the financial aspects are considered, one of the biggest hurdles to making a big move is mental: it just feels overwhelming. So many things to do, buy and organize before it can actually happen. Your child may just need the expertise of someone who’s moved multiple times in their lives to talk them down off the “I’m too overwhelmed and can’t do this” ledge. Map out all the necessities and then make a list of the “nice to haves down the road” so they can see what’s an immediate need, and what can be done over the coming weeks and months.

Gift or Loan Them The Down Payment

Trulia’s latest survey showed that 50% of millennials surveyed plan go to their parents for help with the hefty down payment that’s required to purchase a home in today’s housing market. If you want your adult child up and out of your basement, consider giving them the financial head start now they need to form their own household and be independent.

Buy A Multi-Unit Investment Property

I am a huge proponent of purchasing multiunit properties, such as a duplex or triplex, because they are great investments. In the case of your “failure to launch” millennial, slot them into one of the units of your new property and rent out the others. The rental income is likely to cover much of the costs of ownership, and you’ll have a built-in property manager in the building to keep an eye on things. Plus, your boomerang kid is learning valuable management skills at the same time. It can be an investment property for you, and solve the “son or daughter is still in my basement” problem, all at the same time.

 

More on Financial Independence

4 Ways to Lighten Your Kid’s Debt Load

Is Living with Mom and Dad Starting to Cramp Your Style? Take These Steps to Independence

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MONEY Housing Market

Housing Market Recovery Moving Forward, Except for This One Thing

For the first time during the housing recovery, four out of five of Trulia's Housing Barometer measures are at least halfway back to normal. But young adults are still struggling to get jobs.

How We Track This Uneven Recovery
Since February 2012, Trulia’s Housing Barometer has charted how quickly the housing market is moving back to “normal” based on multiple indicators. Because the recovery is uneven, with some housing activities improving faster than others, our Barometer highlights five measures:

  1. Home-price levels relative to fundamentals (Trulia Bubble Watch)
  2. Delinquency + foreclosure rate (Black Knight, formerly LPS)
  3. Existing home sales, excluding distressed sales (National Association of Realtors, NAR)
  4. New construction starts (Census)
  5. The employment rate for 25-34 year-olds, a key age group for household formation and first-time homeownership (Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS)

The first measure, home prices from our Bubble Watch, is a quarterly report. The other four measures are reported monthly; to reduce volatility, however, we use three-month moving averages for these measures. For each indicator, we compare the latest available data to (1) its worst reading for that indicator during the housing bust and (2) its pre-bubble “normal” level.

4 Out of 5 Measures Improve and Are At Least Halfway Home
All but one of the Housing Barometer’s five indicators have improved since last quarter, and all five have improved or remained steady since last year. Prices and the delinquency + foreclosure rate made the biggest strides:

Housing Indicators: How Far Back to Normal?
Now One quarter ago One year ago
Home price level 79% 68% 44%
Delinquency + foreclosure rate 74% 63% 53%
Existing home sales, excl. distressed 64% 61% 64%
New construction starts 50% 45% 41%
Employment rate, 25-34 year-olds 35% 39% 30%
For each indicator, we compare the latest available data to (1) its worst reading for that indicator during the housing bust and (2) its pre-bubble “normal” level.
  • Home prices continue to climb, though at a slower rate. Trulia’s Bubble Watch shows prices were 3% undervalued in 2014 Q2, compared with 15% at the worst of the housing bust; that means prices are nearly four-fifths (79%) of the way back to their “normal” level of being neither over- nor under-valued. Even better, as prices approach normal, price gains are slowing down and becoming more sustainable: for the first time in almost two years, no local market has had price gains of more than 20% year-over-year.
  • The delinquency + foreclosure rate was 74% back to normal in May, up from 63% one quarter ago. While fewer foreclosures means fewer discounted homes for sale, delinquencies and foreclosures have caused great pain for millions of households and the financial system. For the foreclosure crisis, the light at the end of the tunnel is getting brighter.
  • Existing home sales (excluding distressed) were 64% back to normal in May, up from 61% one quarter earlier. Distressed sales have plummeted as the foreclosure inventory has dried up. Non-distressed sales also stumbled from their peak last summer as higher home prices and mortgage rates reduced affordability, but in the past quarter non-distressed sales have resumed their climb.
  • New construction starts are 50% back to normal, up from 45% one quarter ago and 41% one year ago. Multi-unit starts — mostly apartment buildings — are leading the recovery: in 2014 so far, multi-unit starts accounted for 35% of all new home starts, the highest annual level in 40 years. This apartment boom started last year, and last year’s starts are now being completed, which is increasing the supply of apartments for rent.
  • Employment for young adults, however, took a step back. May’s three-month moving average shows that 75.6% of adults age 25-34 are employed, which is just 35% of the way back to normal. That’s down from 39% one quarter ago, though still an improvement from one year ago. Because young adults need jobs in order to move out of their parents’ homes, form their own households, and eventually become homeowners, the housing recovery depends on Millennials getting jobs.

What’s Missing from the Housing Recovery

First-time homebuyers are still missing from the housing recovery, making up just 27% of existing-home buyers according to NAR’s May report. That’s down a bit both from last month and from last year.

How has the recovery gotten this far without first-time buyers? Investors and other bargain-hunters bought homes near the bottom of the market, in late 2011, which boosted sales and home prices. Now that prices are near long-term norms – just 3% undervalued – the bargain-hunting engine is sputtering. Repeat buyers, who are trading in one home for another, are taking more of the market.

Would-be first-time homebuyers are stuck: rising prices and mortgage rates have reduced affordability before young adults have been able to recover from the jobs recession. A full recovery that includes first-time homebuyers is still years away; many young adults still need to find jobs and keep them long enough to save for a down payment and qualify for a mortgage. Until that happens, the clearest signs of recovery will be apartment construction and renter household formation, not first-time home buying, as young adults move from their parents’ homes into their own rental units.

NOTE: Trulia’s Housing Barometer tracks five measures: existing home sales excluding distressed (NAR), home prices (Trulia Bubble Watch), delinquency + foreclosure rate (Black Knight), new home starts (Census), and the employment rate for 25-34 year-olds (BLS). Also, our estimate of the “normal” share of sales that are distressed is 5%; Black Knight reports that the share was in the 3-5% range during the bubble. For each measure, we compare the latest available data to (1) the worst reading for that indicator during the housing bust and (2) its pre-bubble “normal” level. We use a three-month average to smooth volatility for the four indicators that are reported monthly (all but home prices). The latest published data are May data for the employment rate, existing home sales, new construction starts, and the delinquency + foreclosure rate; and Q2 for home prices.

See the original article, with more charts, here.

Jed Kolko is the chief economist of Trulia.

MONEY Housing Market

The Cities Where Zombies (Foreclosures, That Is) Are Still Lurking

140626_REA_zombies_1
Everett Collection

They’re the housing market menace that won’t seem to go away – homes abandoned by their owners, not yet taken over by the banks. Even now, well into a two-year recovery in home prices, there remain 141,406 “zombie foreclosures,” according to data firm RealtyTrac.

That’s down 16% from a year ago nationwide, which sounds pretty good. Still, zombie foreclosures increased this quarter in 10 states plus D.C. The problem is particularly persistent in some regions—Florida accounts for more than one-third of all zombies—where upwards of 30% and even 40% of foreclosures are vacant.

Metropolitan areas (keep in mind, these are generally much larger regions than cities themselves) with the highest percentage of vacant foreclosures, reports RealtyTrac:

Metro Area %Vacant
Homosassa Springs, Fla. 43%
Portland 37%
Birmingham 37%
Ocala, Fla. 36%
Destin, Fla. 35%
St. Louis 34%
Worcester, Mass. 33%
Port St. Lucie, Fla. 33%
Punta Gorda, Fla. 33%
Binghamton, N.Y. 33%
Las Vegas 32%
Melbourne, Fla. 32%
Daytona Beach, Fla. 32%
Gainesville, Fla. 31%
Fort Wayne, Ind. 31%

 

Vacant foreclosures were a downright plague during the worst of the housing crisis—homes overgrown with weeds, windows boarded up dragged down property values and in some cases deteriorated into hotbeds of crimes. From a 2008 U.S. Conference of Mayors report: “These properties are a drain on city budgets. They detract from the quality of life, as well as the economic opportunities, of those living around them. They are an impediment to individual neighborhood redevelopment and, ultimately, to achievement of city-wide economic development goals.”

Five years later, a swarm of local and national initiatives and streamlined foreclosure procedures have helped; so has a flood of investor buying. Rising home prices and an improving economy have kept fewer homes out of foreclosure in the first place.

Still, real estate analysts and community advocates fear that the last batch of zombies are going to be the hardest to kill—they may be in the worst shape and in the least desirable neighborhoods. Investors don’t want them, and the properties require way too much work for traditional buyers.

And, community redevelopment types fear, banks are taking their sweet time foreclosing on them at all, putting off the moment when they have to pay all the back taxes, code enforcement fees and other liens that have amassed over the years.

“The banks are hoping the market will keep turning around, or they’re looking for alternatives that lessen the red ink on their portfolio,” says John Taylor, CEO of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition. “There was a time the banks were just giving away these properties trying to get them off the books. Now, they don’t want to add to that.”

Not surprisingly, the longer the foreclosure process lasts, the more likely the owners are to abandon the homes. And where are foreclosures taking the longest? New York and Florida, a 418 and 411 days on average, respectively, followed by New Jersey (378 days), Illinois (272) and Hawaii (249).

Zombie Foreclosures in the Largest 20 Cities

Metro Area %Vacant
New York City 13%
Los Angeles 8%
Chicago 19%
Dallas 25%
Philadelphia 22%
Houston 12%
Washington D.C. 18%
Miami 18%
Atlanta 30%
Boston 20%
San Francisco 8%
Detroit 28%
Riverside, Calif. 6%
Phoenix 25%
Seattle 29%
Minneapolis 22%
San Diego 4%
St. Louis 34%
Tampa 30%
Baltimore 28%

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