--- title: Volcanoes Play Role in Global Warming Hiatus description: The planet hasn't been warming as much as early climate models once predicted, and some scientists believe it's because sulfur emissions from erupting volcanoes are blocking sunlight in some parts of the planet, cooling the Earth's overall temperature canonical: https://time.com/9717/volcanoes-may-be-slowing-down-climate-change/ author: Francesca Trianni article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2014-02-25T21:38:07.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-01T08:47:50.305Z article:section: Science og:title: Volcanoes Play Role in Global Warming Hiatus og:description: The planet hasn't been warming as much as early climate models once predicted, and some scientists believe it's because sulfur emissions from erupting volcanoes are blocking sunlight in some parts of the planet, cooling the Earth's overall temperature og:url: https://time.com/9717/volcanoes-may-be-slowing-down-climate-change/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt8140b5f1b9171331/6986830306f2c1065b32d9b2/warming-1280x720.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1280 og:image:height: 720 og:image:alt: Global Warming Hiatus Result Of Volcanic Activity og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Volcanoes Play Role in Global Warming Hiatus twitter:description: The planet hasn't been warming as much as early climate models once predicted, and some scientists believe it's because sulfur emissions from erupting volcanoes are blocking sunlight in some parts of the planet, cooling the Earth's overall temperature twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt8140b5f1b9171331/6986830306f2c1065b32d9b2/warming-1280x720.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Volcanoes May Be Slowing Down Climate Change > Sponsored content. 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Named editors include Richard Hall (The Brief), Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs (Inside TIME), Eliza Berman (Worth Your Time), Philip Elliott (D.C. Brief), Justin Worland (Future Proof) and Harry Booth (In the Loop). Health Matters is written by TIME's health desk. #### How do I sign up for a TIME newsletter? Go to time.com/newsletters, choose the newsletters you want and enter your email address. There is no cost and no subscription requirement. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-network-2026q3/newsletters?i=83bf4ace-6292-4331-b82c-7811effbef39&cr=time-nl-network-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Study: Global Warming Hiatus Result Of Volcanic Activity [Watch (HLS stream): Study: Global Warming Hiatus Result Of Volcanic Activity](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/Xn3wASQB.m3u8) (1:07)  _Published 2014-02-25. A new study suggests volcanic activity could be part of the reason why we haven’t seen global warming keep pace with previous predictions._  by [Francesca Trianni](https://time.com/author/francesca-trianni/)  ## Francesca Trianni Feb 25, 2014 9:38 PM UTC A new study suggests volcanic activity could be part of the reason why we haven’t seen global warming keep pace with previous predictions.  by [Francesca Trianni](https://time.com/author/francesca-trianni/)  ## Francesca Trianni Feb 25, 2014 9:38 PM UTC Small volcanic eruptions might be part of the reason why the pace of global warming hasn’t kept up with previous predictions, a new [study](http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2098.html) published in Nature Geoscience suggests. Eruptions of at least 17 volcanoes since 2000, including Kasatochi in Alaska and Merapi in Indonesia, seem to have had a cooling influence on the temperature of the Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere. In the past, researchers observed increases in levels of greenhouse gases and in global warming, but for the past 15 years the Earth’s surface temperatures [have shown](http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/23/us-climate-volcanoes-idUSBREA1M0W920140223) relatively little warming. This so-called ‘hiatus’ puzzled researchers around the globe have been working to understand this phenomenon. “The hiatus is a fascinating detective story,” says Benjamin Santer, the lead author of the study and an atmospheric scientist at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. “What we show is that even without any computer model calculations there is a clear signal of these early volcanic activity having effects on temperatures and on the reflected sunlight of the atmosphere,” says Santer. Research [shows](http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2014/study-volcanoes-contribute-to-recent-warming-hiatus-0223.html) that large volcanic eruptions inject sulfur dioxide gas into the stratosphere. The gas forms tiny droplets of sulfuric acid, also known as “volcanic aerosols,” that can block sunlight. That cooling effect has been largely ignored by climate scientists until now, but it seems to partly offset the warming from human-caused changes in greenhouse gases. But volcanoes are just one of the different factors that contributed to hiatus. Other causes include an unusually dormant solar cycle and an increase in Chinese emissions of sulfur dioxide, which seem to have the same cooling effect. Scientists also believe that some of the extra heat generated by the rise in greenhouse gases is being absorbed by the oceans. “The next scientific challenge is to figure out the degree of culpability of these factors,” says Santer. But unfortunately for us, the cooling effect is expected to be temporary—if we keep emitting greenhouse gases, the climate will keep warming. **(MORE:** [Iceland – Living with Volcanoes](http://lightbox.time.com/2012/07/03/iceland-living-with-volcanoes/#ixzz2uN3Ldmp4)) ## Transcript >> Critics of the global warming theory have long decided what looks like a slowing and rising temperatures over the last 15 years. >> The data are not supporting what the advocates are arguing. >> But a new study published Sunday suggest volcanic activity could be part of the reason why we haven't seen global warming keep pace with previous predictions. Volcanic eruptions like Nabro and Eritrea, and at least 16 others since the year 2000, have accounted for 15 percent of the global warming hiatus, according to the article in Nature Geoscience. How? Well, the study's authors say volcanic eruptions help block the sun with ash and chemicals, creating a kind of cooling effect. But with or without this new study, it seems the debate rages on. >> A scientific theory that has not been proven. >> But the debate is settled. Climate change is a fact. >> Though the Earth has benefited from this temporary reprieve in global warming, a scientist from the University of Colorado says the greenhouse effect will continue if humans don't make changes. Eruptions are not going to counter the greenhouse effect. Emissions of volcanic gases go up and down, helping to cool or heat the planet, while greenhouse gas emissions from human activity just continue to go up. Thanks for watching. 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