--- description: Wondering what to name your kid? Here is how every name will rise and fall in popularity over the next 25 years. title: See How Popular Your Name Will Be in the Future image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltde093bcdab65f2d0/6988d9b9bc6cfc69913e2a3c/time-logo.jpg?branch=production --- * [U.S.](/section/us/) ## U.S. Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close # How Popular Will Your Name Be in 25 Years?  by [Chris Wilson](/author/chris-wilson/)  ## Chris Wilson Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close May 11, 2014 1:00 PM CUT  by [Chris Wilson](/author/chris-wilson/)  ## Chris Wilson Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close May 11, 2014 1:00 PM CUT Popular names follow a familiar cycle: They become increasingly common as new parents jump on the bandwagon, only to peak and decline as everyone on the playground starts answering to the same name. Some old standards lie dormant for half a century before gradually returning–hello, _Evelyn._ Others skyrocket and decline in a few years (that’s you, _Miley_). Parents who want to stay ahead of the curve have two major things to consider in a name: the present popularity of a name and where in its popularity cycle it currently sits. The first part is easy to get from the Social Security Administration, which published the most [popular baby names of 2013](http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/babynames/ "undefined") on Friday. (In the United States, _Noah_ has unseated _Jacob_ as the most popular boy’s name; _Sophia_ still reigns supreme among girls.) The second is not so simple. Like stocks, hot names can stay dominant for a decade or flame out after a year. The tool above, developed with [Chris Franck](http://filebox.vt.edu/users/chfranck/index.html "undefined"), an assistant research professor in statistics at Virginia Tech, predicts how a name will rise or fall in the next 25 years by examining the performance of earlier names that followed similar patterns of popularity. In the case of _Adele_, for example, our model found that the name is currently following a pattern very similar to names like _Grace_, _Eva_, and _Lavinia_, which were similarly popular in the early 20th century and enjoyed a comeback in the recent past. (Adele’s spike in popularity might have something to do with [this one](http://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2111975%5F2111976%5F2111950,00.html "undefined").) Because these names are farther along in their lifecycle, they offer some insight into what the next few years will look like for _Adele_. Based on this method, here are a few predictions: _Noah’s_ best days are behind him. We predict that 2013 was the most popular year the Biblical name will have in many years to come. _Emma_ is very likely to be the top girl’s name of 2014\. And keep your eyes out for _Harrison_ and _Emmett._ Meanwhile, _Sophia’s_ best days just might be behind her. **How it works** One can test a model like this by making predictions based on data from earlier years and seeing how those predictions compare to the actual results. Below is an image of how this method predicts the growth and decline of _Madison_, which peaked in 2001, based only on data about the name’s growth through 1990\. By comparing _Madison_‘s early behavior to similar names (graphed here in gray), the model was able to produce a prediction (dashed line) that closely following the actual data (solid) over the next decade.  TIME This model does not have the statistical rigor of a formal experiment, but it does produce surprisingly accurate results when tested against historical data. Others who have looked at baby names in detail have also found that first sound of in a name — the “K” sound in _Katie_ and _Christina_ or the “M” in _Mary_ and _Michael_—[also rises and falls in popularity](http://pss.sagepub.com/content/23/10/1067.abstract "undefined"). _The source code for this project is_ [_available_](https://github.com/TimeMagazine/babynames "undefined") _on Time’s GitHub page._ _Read next:_ [_Bookmakers Are Betting That the Royal Baby Will Be Named Alice_](http://time.com/3764984/princess-kate-baby-name-royals/?iid=time%5Freadnext "undefined") [_Listen to the most important stories of the day._](http://time.com/newsletter/the-brief/?sl%5Fautoplay=true&xid=spl-fullbrief-article "undefined") ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/93911/baby-name-predictor/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/93911/baby-name-predictor/"},"headline":"How Popular Will Your Name Be in 25 Years?","datePublished":"2014-05-11T13:00:06.000Z","dateModified":"2026-05-11T05:08:24.753Z","description":"Wondering what to name your kid? 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