--- title: El Nino Weather Event Likely in Late 2014, PNAS Report Says description: The weather event would lead to warmer temps across the globe in 2015 canonical: https://time.com/6526/el-nino-event-likely-in-2014-researchers-say/ author: Maya Rhodan article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2014-02-10T23:18:59.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-02-21T06:22:25.314Z article:section: Science og:title: El Nino Weather Event Likely in Late 2014, PNAS Report Says og:description: The weather event would lead to warmer temps across the globe in 2015 og:url: https://time.com/6526/el-nino-event-likely-in-2014-researchers-say/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltde093bcdab65f2d0/6988d9b9bc6cfc69913e2a3c/time-logo.jpg?branch=production og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: TIME og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: El Nino Weather Event Likely in Late 2014, PNAS Report Says twitter:description: The weather event would lead to warmer temps across the globe in 2015 twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltde093bcdab65f2d0/6988d9b9bc6cfc69913e2a3c/time-logo.jpg?branch=production --- # El Niño Event Likely in 2014, Researchers Say by [Maya Rhodan](https://time.com/author/maya-rhodan/) ## Maya Rhodan Feb 10, 2014 11:18 PM UTC by [Maya Rhodan](https://time.com/author/maya-rhodan/) ## Maya Rhodan Feb 10, 2014 11:18 PM UTC There is a 75% chance an El Niño [event ](http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-02-10/el-nino-weather-seen-as-75-percent-likelihood-in-2014-researchers-say)will occur in 2014, according to an early warning report published in PNAS ([Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences](http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/02/07/1323058111)) Monday. The report uses a research method that projects the occurrence of the weather system a full year out—versus the six month maximum typically predicted by other methods. El Niño events are characterized by a warmer Pacific Ocean, which can lead to overall warmer temps across the globe and cause droughts in Australia and an increase in rain in South America, Bloomberg reports. According to the report, the method correctly predicted the absence of El Niño events in 2012 and 2013\. A 2014 event would also increase temperatures in 2015. One of the report’s researchers told [Bloomberg News](http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-02-10/el-nino-weather-seen-as-75-percent-likelihood-in-2014-researchers-say) that the early forecast could actually benefit to agricultural workers. “Farmers might find it worthwhile to invest in drought- or flood-resistant varieties of crops,” Ludescher and Bunde said today in an e-mail to Bloomberg. “A strong El Niño event in late 2014 can make 2015 a record year for global temperatures.” \[[_Bloomberg_](http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-02-10/el-nino-weather-seen-as-75-percent-likelihood-in-2014-researchers-say)\] ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/6526/el-nino-event-likely-in-2014-researchers-say/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/6526/el-nino-event-likely-in-2014-researchers-say/"},"headline":"El Niño Event Likely in 2014, Researchers Say","datePublished":"2014-02-10T23:18:59.000Z","dateModified":"2026-02-21T06:22:25.314Z","description":"The weather event would lead to warmer temps across the globe in 2015","url":"https://time.com/6526/el-nino-event-likely-in-2014-researchers-say/","keywords":["weather","El Nino"],"thumbnailUrl":"","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Maya Rhodan","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/maya-rhodan/"}],"articleSection":"Science","image":[],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/science/","name":"Science"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/weather/","name":"weather"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/6526/el-nino-event-likely-in-2014-researchers-say/","name":"El Niño Event Likely in 2014, Researchers Say"}}]}] ```