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title: The Culprit Behind Trump's Border Emergency? Climate Change
description: By declaring a national emergency on the U.S. border, Trump elevated an issue caused in part by global warming
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# The Real Culprit Behind Trump's Border Emergency? Climate Change

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<!-- video src="https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/mia6Tcb8.m3u8" -->
## Video: The Legal Reasons Why President Trump Won't Take A Stand On Climate Change

[Watch (HLS stream): The Legal Reasons Why President Trump Won't Take A Stand On Climate Change](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/mia6Tcb8.m3u8) (2:11)

![The Legal Reasons Why President Trump Won't Take A Stand On Climate Change](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/mia6Tcb8/poster.jpg?width=720)

_Published 2017-09-26. The Legal Reasons Why President Trump Won't Take A Stand On Climate Change_


![Justin Worland](https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltce43820e61634237/698a0e76457a527422d63fe7/TIME-JustinWorland.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1:1)

by 

[Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)


![Justin Worland](https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltce43820e61634237/698a0e76457a527422d63fe7/TIME-JustinWorland.jpg?branch=production&width=96&quality=75&auto=webp)

## Justin Worland


Senior Correspondent

Feb 22, 2019 7:15 PM UTC

![Justin Worland](https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltce43820e61634237/698a0e76457a527422d63fe7/TIME-JustinWorland.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1:1)

by 

[Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)


![Justin Worland](https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltce43820e61634237/698a0e76457a527422d63fe7/TIME-JustinWorland.jpg?branch=production&width=96&quality=75&auto=webp)

## Justin Worland


Senior Correspondent

Feb 22, 2019 7:15 PM UTC

President Donald Trump is expected to convene a new panel that will likely undermine the expert consensus that climate change threatens national security.

But experts say that move is at odds with his recent declaration of a national emergency at the U.S. border, where thousands of the Central American migrants have arrived after fleeing the effects of climate change.

“Yeah, they’re economic migrants, but they’re really climate refugees,” says Robert Albro, a researcher American University who has studied the effects of climate change in Latin America. But “the politics around this is so toxic that it’s unlikely to have any kind of productive forward motion in the foreseeable future.”

Trump’s new panel underscores a fundamental irony at the center of the Administration’s treatment of two complex challenges facing the U.S. today: neither new migrant caravans nor climate change can be prevented with a stalwart commitment to an “America First” agenda. Instead, both issues require precisely the kind of international cooperation and global interdependency that Trump routinely decries.

The fact that climate change is one of several primary drivers behind global migration is not controversial among experts.

Researchers and development officials have documented in recent years a slew of climate risks facing Central America, particularly Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. A 2016 [report](http://www.fao.org/3/a-br092s.pdf) from the Food and Agriculture Organization showed 1.6 million people suffering from food insecurity in the region as a result of climate-change related drought, which has left rural and impoverished communities the most vulnerable. Throughout the region, the effects of climate change have made crops unprofitable, driving farmers into cities, and eventually toward the U.S. Thousands more Central Americans have suffered from malnutrition and an inability to feed their children.


“They usually don’t go after the first drought,” says Stephanie Leutert, director of the Mexico Security Initiative at the University of Texas at Austin. “But when the drought comes back and they don’t have many any more savings, they have do something.”

Government scientists, even those working for the Trump administration, have acknowledged the link between climate change and increased migration. The [Fourth National Climate Assessment](http://time.com/5462102/climate-change-report-trump-science/) (NCA) — a Congressionally mandated report released last year by more than a dozen federal agencies — noted that climate change would drive future migration in the U.S. and included a section highlighting how extreme weather has contributed to past migrant crises.

The link between climate change and migration extends to other parts of the globe as well, including the Middle East. A 2017 study published in the journal _Science_ showed that by the end of the century climate change could double the number of refugees seeking asylum in Europe. And other [research](https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/112/11/3241.full.pdf) has shown that climate change-related drought has worsened the conflict in Syria. While environmental devastation is not the only factor contributing to unprecedented trends in [global migration](http://time.com/longform/migrants/), it’s clear it’s contributing to the global movement of people.


The irony undergirding Trump’s declaration of a national emergency at the U.S. border will likely have no effect on his national security panel on climate change. The 12-member committee, which was first [reported](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/white-house-readies-panel-to-assess-if-climate-change-poses-a-national-security-threat/2019/02/19/ccc8b29e-3396-11e9-af5b-b51b7ff322e9%5Fstory.html?) by the Washington _Post_, will be led by William Happer, a retired Princeton University professor who has vocally denied the science of climate change and memorably compared environmentalists’ criticism of carbon dioxide to the persecution of the Jewish people during World War II. Its convocation follows a barrage of comments from Trump that have sought to undermine climate science. He has repeatedly trolled the internet with tweets about cold weather and the Administration has engaged in a concerted effort to undo the country’s environmental regulations. “I don’t believe it,” Trump said in November of the NCA and, by extension, climate change more broadly.

Still, it remains unclear what tangible effects the panel’s conclusions might have. Experts at federal agencies continue to acknowledge and prepare for the threat of climate change, including the Department of Defense which last month highlighted the threat a warmer world plays to national security in a congressionally mandated [report](https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2019/01/sec%5F335%5Fndaa-report%5Feffects%5Fof%5Fa%5Fchanging%5Fclimate%5Fto%5Fdod.pdf). And in many cases agencies are compelled to act on climate change by a complex set of federal law and Supreme Court rulings.


The notion that climate change could constitute a national emergency has won over many Democrats eager for ways to implement climate policy come 2020\. For that reason, many Republicans have remained skeptical of Trump’s emergency declaration. “Today’s national emergency is border security,” said Senator Marco Rubio, a Florida Republican. “But a future president may use this exact same tactic to impose the Green New Deal.”

Indeed, future Democrats may point to the migrant crisis to justify it.


## Transcript

As a candidate Donald Trump had no problem giving his opinion about climate change. So Obama's talking about all of this with the global warming, and a lot of it's a hoax, it's a hoax, I mean it's a money making industry okay .

>> But as president he won't say what he things and neither will his administration. The president himself during the campaign called climate change a hoax. Have you had that conversation with him? I have not had that conversation with him. He no longer believes what he tweeted during the course of the campaign in years earlier, that it's a hoax? Look, you're gonna have to ask him. I'll ask it one more time. Does he believe global warming's a hoax? Does he believe- You should ask him that. When asked their own opinions, other members of the Trump administration generally agree the climate is changing and humans may play a role.

Climate is changing, it always has. Man at this particular point in time is having an effect on it, how much effect is what's at debate here. So why is Trump himself so cagey? Part of it is political, polls show the majority of Americans believe global warming is real and is caused by human activities. Part of it personal, Trump does not like to admit he was wrong about an issue in the past As can be seen from his brief and begrudging admission this his crusade over President Obama's birth certificate was mistaken. President Barack Obama was born in the United States, period. But there's a legal reason too.

The Environmental Protection Agency has found that the greenhouse gases, which cause climate change Are a form of pollution that endanger human health and wellbeing. And thanks to a 2007 Supreme Court ruling, that means the EPA must act on those findings. If the Trump Administration were to say climate change isn't real it would be open to lawsuits from environmentalists for not acting on its own EPA findings. EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt is careful to say that it's real in some form. I indicated That in fact global warming is occurring. That human activity contributes to it in some manner. That doesn't mean the EPA has to keep the Obama administration's plans in place.

In fact members of the Trump adminstration have been steadily rolling back regulations designed to fight climate change. They just can't say they're doing that. Because climate change isn't real. [ MUSIC ] [ BLANK_AUDIO ]

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