--- title: How the Government Shutdown Affects Weather Forecasts description: Meteorologists are working without pay while work on long-term modeling suffers during the government shutdown, experts say. canonical: https://time.com/5492377/weather-forecasts-goverment-shutdown/ author: Alejandro de la Garza article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2019-01-03T16:06:37.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-13T08:18:56.421Z article:section: Science og:title: The Shutdown Won't Stop Weather Forecasts. But It's Creating Problems og:description: Meteorologists are working without pay while work on long-term modeling suffers og:url: https://time.com/5492377/weather-forecasts-goverment-shutdown/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt776843d5eecfd37f/6989429dab6d771c5c6b48d1/shutdown-weather-forecasts.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: Shutdown Weather Forecasts og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: The Shutdown Won't Stop Weather Forecasts. But It's Creating Problems twitter:description: Meteorologists are working without pay while work on long-term modeling suffers twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt776843d5eecfd37f/6989429dab6d771c5c6b48d1/shutdown-weather-forecasts.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # The Shutdown Won't Stop Weather Forecasts. But It's Creating Problems for the Future > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Future Proof: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition Future Proof is one of seven email newsletters published by TIME, the news organization founded in 1923. Making sense of the climate and energy economy. Future Proof examines the forces transforming energy and climate, and what those changes mean for business, technology, policy and the global economy. Senior correspondent Justin Worland goes beyond traditional climate coverage to connect the energy transition to the bigger decisions reshaping companies, markets and society. 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Future Proof is free at time.com/newsletters. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-futureproof-2026q3/newsletters?i=341111e9-4023-4d4d-9c00-9aeebcaf51f7&cr=time-nl-futureproof-2026q3-v1) ## Video: President Trump Reiterates Call for Complete Border Wall During Cabinet Meeting Amid Shutdown [Watch (HLS stream): President Trump Reiterates Call for Complete Border Wall During Cabinet Meeting Amid Shutdown](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/4hLPrDHc.m3u8) (3:01)  _Published 2019-01-02. President Donald Trump says the southern border is “like a sieve,” and he’s lamenting how U.S. authorities fired tear gas into Mexico during the first hours of the new year to repel about 150 migrants trying to breach the border fence in Tijuana._  by [Alejandro de la Garza](https://time.com/author/alejandro-de-la-garza/)  ## Alejandro de la Garza Jan 3, 2019 4:06 PM UTC  by [Alejandro de la Garza](https://time.com/author/alejandro-de-la-garza/)  ## Alejandro de la Garza Jan 3, 2019 4:06 PM UTC Around the country, from flood-prone lowlands to Tornado Alley, weather can be deadly serious. Timely warnings from the [National Weather Service](http://time.com/5136521/accuweather-blames-national-weather-service-for-false-alarm-tsunami-warning/) (NWS), the federal agency tasked with keeping track of weather across the United States, are key to preserving human life in extreme weather events. Now, as the [government shutdown](http://time.com/5492255/trump-pushes-for-wall-amid-shutdown/) drags into its 13th day, some are wondering if the partially-staffed NWS is still reliable, or if the service is even operating at all. Fortunately, much of the weather forecasting operations of the NWS’ parent agency — the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) — are exempted from the shutdown. Forecasters at local and national weather centers, along with technical and engineering staff, continue to provide the forecasts and warnings essential to safeguarding lives and property, though many staff are currently working without pay. Experts stress that Americans can continue to trust the predictions coming out of the NWS, despite a partially shut down federal government. “One thing you can say about weather service employees is they’re the most dedicated people in the world,” says Dan Sobien, president of the National Weather Service Employees Organization. “Even without getting paid and even with the uncertainty of whether or not they’re going to be able to pay their own mortgage or rent, they’re going to go out of their way to do an excellent job and put out the best forecasts and best warnings that they can.” However, that doesn’t mean that the shutdown is consequence-free for federal meteorology. Though the effects of the government shutdown are not manifest in the accuracy of daily forecasts, the shutdown could affect vital long-term improvements to American weather prediction. Scientists and engineers working on projects unrelated to the day-to-day safeguarding of American lives and property have been sent home. Efforts within NOAA and the NWS to improve weather modeling have been paused, as have continuing training programs for weather staff, both of which are essential to improving long-term weather prediction. For some forecasters, the standoff over the border wall is immaterial compared to the real progress that is being lost due to the shutdown. “I don’t know how many lives you’re going to save by building a wall or how many lives it would cost from not building a wall,” says Sobien. “I guarantee it’s going to cost lives if these people don’t get the training and the opportunities to develop new and better ways of forecasting the weather.” The effects of the government shutdown are also being felt across the broader American meteorological community. The American Meteorological Society’s annual meeting, among the most important conferences in the field, is scheduled for Jan. 6 in Phoenix, Ariz. Between 25 and 30 percent of its attendees are federal employees. Their shutdown-enforced absence will have a noticeable effect on this year’s progress in operational meteorology, experts say. “It is the meteorological conference of the year. It’s where those ideas are hatched, where colleagues get together and discuss issues that create solutions,” says Sobien. “We’re able to give people 12 or 13 minutes lead time on, for instance, tornadoes … that’s because people went to conferences 50 years ago.” The lack of government attendance also means that NOAA scientists will likely miss an important opportunity to receive feedback on their newest weather models from scientists in the larger atmospheric sciences community, explains Fred Carr, professor emeritus at the School of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma. That absence will mean more delays, or even a lost chance to receive important input that could make new models more effective. But government shutdowns, like the ones in 2018 and 2013, can have impacts even beyond stymied research progress. Meteorologists, along with hundreds of thousands of federal employees, are facing personal financial costs as they wait to get back to work. The NWS is among the best places to practice meteorology, according to Sobien. But for scientists, the knowledge that their jobs can be affected by political power struggles can make federal work less appealing. Industry experts like Sobien worry that the next generation of researchers, both in meteorology and other vital specialized fields, might become less likely to see a viable career in public service given the shutdown. For now though, the furloughed scientists and engineers at NOAA are just eager to get back to their job. “Once the shutdown ends, they’ll get back to work,” says Carr. “They’re passionate about improving the weather forecast.” For Americans dealing with anything from unexpected snowstorms to catastrophic hurricanes, forecasters’ predictions could make all the difference. ## Transcript Every day, border patrol encounters roughly 2, 000 illegal immigrants. We have to talk about this. Trying to enter our country. 2, 000 a day, and that's a minimum. Every week, 300 Americans are killed by heroine, the vast majority of which comes across Through our southern border. Our southern border is like a sieve, it just pours through our southern border, and unless we're gonna have physical barriers, it's never gonna be able to be stopped. Too much money is being made. Last month 20, 000 minors were illegally smuggled into the United States. In the last two years, ICE officers arrested 235, 000 criminals. Who were able to come in over the years through, the United States. And we have a very tough border. I think you see that, even last night, where people charged the border, tried to get through. But they couldn't, because we have a wall up. And, but tear gas was flying and a lot of things were happening. And I guess, for the most part, you've seen it. It's very sad. If they knew they had a physical barrier. If they knew they had a wall. If they knew they had something that's going to stop them, they would have never come up in the first place. The United States needs a physical barrier. Means a wall to stop illegal immigration, and to halt deadly inflow of drugs and crime. You have human traffickers. It's a thing that's horrible. Think of it, human trafficking. They kidnap people, they steal people, and they sell people. And because of the Internet, one of the bad things that happens with the Internet One of the many bad things. But because of the internet, it's the highest it's ever been in history, and this is a world problem. This isn't a United States situation, this is a world problem. But the southern border is a very, very highly used place by people that do human trafficking. How can it get worse than that? Is the reason why politicians and wealthy people build walls around their houses and their compounds. President Obama recently build a wall around his compound there is a reason for it, and I don't blame. We are in a shutdown because Democrats refuse to fund the border security. They try and make it like its just about the wall, and it is about the wall. I said over the weekend of a number of people, the wheel, the wall, there are some things that never get old. Its never going to change. We're in the shutdown because of the fact that The Democrats are looking to 2020. They think they're not gonna win the election. I guess a lot of signs point to the fact that they're not gonna win the election. I hope they're not gonna win the election. But they view this as an election point for them. I actually think its bad politics but I'm not thinking about the politics. I'm thinking about what's right And what's wrong. And we need a physical barrier. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/5492377/weather-forecasts-goverment-shutdown/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/5492377/weather-forecasts-goverment-shutdown/"},"headline":"The Shutdown Won't Stop Weather Forecasts. 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