--- title: Don't Expect Mueller to Charge a Grand Conspiracy description: Robert Mueller may never write a full “final report,” and any bombshells he reveals are unlikely to outline a grand conspiracy. canonical: https://time.com/5472317/mueller-investigation-results/ author: Renato Mariotti article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2018-12-06T11:33:26.000Z article:modified_time: 2023-12-12T16:09:00.000Z article:section: Ideas og:title: Why the Mueller Investigation Probably Won’t Charge a Grand Conspiracy og:description: Robert Mueller may never write a full ‘final report’ og:url: https://time.com/5472317/mueller-investigation-results/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt95b3d3229b98fe33/698940a597cdff797d6b6e70/special-counsel-robert-mueller-investigation.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2405 og:image:height: 1353 og:image:alt: Special Counsel Robert Mueller Investigation og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Why the Mueller Investigation Probably Won’t Charge a Grand Conspiracy twitter:description: Robert Mueller may never write a full ‘final report’ twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt95b3d3229b98fe33/698940a597cdff797d6b6e70/special-counsel-robert-mueller-investigation.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Don't Expect Mueller to Charge a Grand Conspiracy > Sponsored content. 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A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-inside-2026q3/newsletters?i=712f2a73-1a9d-4c5d-87c8-ab895c50df87&cr=time-nl-inside-2026q3-v1) ## Video: New Court Filings in the Mueller Investigation [Watch (HLS stream): New Court Filings in the Mueller Investigation](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/x8Hn9Qze.m3u8) (3:15)  _Published 2018-12-05. What special counsel Robert Mueller’s most recent court filings reveal about the Russian investigation._ by [Renato Mariotti](https://time.com/author/renato-mariotti/) ## Renato Mariotti Updated: Dec 12, 2023 4:09 PM UTCPublished: Dec 6, 2018 11:33 AM UTC What special counsel Robert Mueller’s most recent court filings reveal about the Russian investigation. by [Renato Mariotti](https://time.com/author/renato-mariotti/) ## Renato Mariotti Updated: Dec 12, 2023 4:09 PM UTCPublished: Dec 6, 2018 11:33 AM UTC As America anxiously awaits special counsel Robert Mueller’s so-called “final report” and proof of “collusion,” it should be wary of two truths: Mueller may never write a public “final report”—especially not one that sets forth evidence like the Starr Report did—and any bombshells he reveals are unlikely to outline a grand conspiracy. This will not be a failure of the investigation but rather of our own expectations. Federal prosecutors aren’t historians or journalists. They don’t craft narratives. (And they almost never write reports.) They investigate potential violations of federal law. Although those investigations can be wide-ranging, charges are usually written narrowly—and for a good reason. It is not easy to prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. That is particularly true for white collar crimes that require prosecutors to prove a defendant’s intent. Because we can’t see inside a person’s mind, prosecutors use a defendant’s words and actions. In the absence of a smoking-gun email or recording, they assemble evidence that permits a jury to infer intent. Despite those challenges, Mueller has been very successful already. He’s seen numerous guilty pleas and obtained wide-ranging indictments charging Russian intelligence operatives with two distinct conspiracies: to hack U.S. computers and to interfere with the U.S. political system. He also convicted former Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort of numerous crimes, ranging from fraud to witness tampering. In federal white collar investigations, sweeping indictments like those are rare, unless criminals are brazen or careless. Once prosecutors obtain a conviction on a narrow charge, for sentencing, they are required to inform the judge of all of the relevant “history and characteristics” of the defendant as well as the “nature and circumstances” of the offense. Those factors are very broad—federal judges take into account nearly everything about a defendant and his or her conduct. While there are good reasons for this, one consequence is that in the federal criminal-justice system, prosecutors have an incentive to charge crimes that are easier to prove—like lying to Congress or the FBI. Rather than aiming high and getting nothing, they aim for a somewhat lower charge, and because the judge will take the larger concerns into account, the prosecutor is more likely to obtain the longer end of the lower sentencing range. This can have broader implications. For instance, it can permit prosecutors to bring defendants to justice when the statute of limitations has run. One example of this was when former House Speaker Dennis Hastert was prosecuted for lying to federal agents and unlawfully structuring the withdrawal of cash from his bank account. The judge in that case sentenced Hastert for 15 months in prison, in large part due to his sexual abuse of minors, which was not charged because it was beyond the statute of limitations. **We’ve seen Mueller** bring narrow charges against multiple defendants already. The wisdom of this careful, targeted approach is underscored by the extraordinary efforts to obstruct his investigation. Manafort shared confidential information about the inquiry with Trump’s lawyers after Manafort agreed to fully cooperate with Mueller—a tactic that is very unusual and highly unethical. And before former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen gave false testimony to Congress, he discussed what he’d say with Trump’s attorneys and White House staff. In the face of this alleged obstruction, and repeated efforts by the President to undermine Mueller’s investigation, Trump’s allies continue to ask, Where’s the collusion? This is due in part to Trump’s disinformation campaign, but also media narratives that border on the fantastical. Frankly, the term _collusion_ has no legal meaning in this context, and it is hard to imagine any federal prosecutor would ever charge the extensive conspiracy imagined by Trump’s critics. Ironically, these unrealistic expectations may help Trump survive this existential challenge to his presidency. At any other time in American history, the President’s lawyer telling a federal judge under oath that the President directed him to commit a crime might end that presidency. Yet that detail has been forgotten amidst the daily avalanche of Trump-related news. More importantly, Trump’s obstruction of justice has become commonplace, even expected. For instance, in September, when Trump publicly condemned then Attorney General Jeff Sessions for failing to quash criminal investigations of two political allies because it could effect the GOP in the midterms, it barely raised eyebrows, when it should have drawn bipartisan condemnation. With all of this in mind, we must understand: even if Mueller sets forth crimes involving Trump in a report, he would do so for those that Trump arguably cannot be charged with while in office. As for the rest, the indictments and court filings speak for themselves. Again, if Mueller finds evidence of narrower crimes and is considered a failure, the failure won’t be on him. It will be on us, for our own outsized expectations, which just might save Trump’s presidency. ## Transcript [ MUSIC ] Special Counsel Robert Mueller's recent court filings provide greater insights into his investigation on Russian meddling in the 2016 Presidential election and possible ties to the Trump campaign. It's been 18 months since Mueller began his far reaching probe, and since then 33 people have been charged including more than two dozen Russians and five of President Trump's former staffers including former National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn. Flynn pleaded guilty in December of 2017 to lying to the FBI and since then has been cooperating with Mueller's investigation. In December 4th court filings, Mueller's sentencing memo blacks out a substantial part of what Flynn told investigators. But shares that the former National Security Advisor has provided substantial assistance to the investigation, sitting for 19 interviews with the Special Counsel. And for his cooperation, Mueller recommended no jail time for Flynn. When he was a close advisor to Trump during his campaign and famously led a locker of Hillary Clinton chance at the Republican National Convention. He previously served as Trump's National Security Advisor for 24 days before being forced to resign after lying to Vice President Pence about his communication with a Russian ambassador. He is the only member of the Trump administration to date to plead guilty to a crime uncovered by Mueller's investigation and is set to face sentencing on December 18th. At the moment, Flynn is cooperating on at least three different investigations for Mueller, including his investigation of the Trump campaign's ties to Russia. Mueller has also brought charges against and secured guilty pleas and cooperation agreements from former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and former Trump personal lawyer Michael Cohen. Cohen pled guilty on Thursday, November 29th to lying to Congress about plans to build a Trump tower in Moscow that lasted, he said, until five months before the 2016 election. Far longer than previously known. President Trump reacted to Cohen's admission saying this. He's a weak person and what He's trying to do is get a reduced sentence. He's lying about a project That everybody knew about. Mueller's increasing probes have Resulted in a flurry of angry tweet storms by the President, who Repeatedly called the investigation a witch hunt. Meanwhile, Trump praised long time confidant Roger Stone for saying he would never testify against Trump, adding in his tweet, nice to know some people still have guts. Mueller is expected to file another memo on December 7 about the alleged lies told by former Trump campaign chief Paul Manafort to the Special Counsel's office. Even after Manafort signed a cooperation deal. If Manafort is found guilty of violating his plea agreement it could warrant an even lengthier prison sentence and potentially more criminal charges. During Manafort's cooperation with the special counsel's office, Manafort's team was briefing Trump's lawyers on his involvement. But Manafort denied he lied to Mueller's team and now a federal judge will decide his sentencing. Court filing by court filing, we're reminded of what little we know about what's going on behind the scenes in the Mueller investigation. 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