--- title: What to Know Ahead of Ohio's Special Congressional Election description: Ohio’s District 12 seat has been filled by a Republican for over 35 years. But the district has a solid chance of turning blue. canonical: https://time.com/5359251/what-to-know-ahead-of-ohios-special-congressional-election/ author: Abby Vesoulis article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2018-08-07T00:23:56.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-02-23T21:04:31.562Z article:section: Politics og:title: What to Know Ahead of Ohio's Special Election og:description: The district has a solid chance of turning blue og:url: https://time.com/5359251/what-to-know-ahead-of-ohios-special-congressional-election/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt265b9f0fb3a34d15/6989372b22fb85091ee265b2/gettyimages-1012178094.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 3000 og:image:height: 1688 og:image:alt: Dem. Congressional Candidate Danny O'Connor Campaigns For Ohio Special Election og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: What to Know Ahead of Ohio's Special Election twitter:description: The district has a solid chance of turning blue twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt265b9f0fb3a34d15/6989372b22fb85091ee265b2/gettyimages-1012178094.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # What to Know Ahead of Ohio's Special Congressional Election > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Newsletters: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME publishes seven free email newsletters, written and edited by TIME journalists, reaching more than 1.1 million engaged readers. TIME has reported on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world since 1923, and its newsletters bring that same authority directly to the inbox. 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Brief (Washington politics, three times a week), Future Proof (climate and energy, weekly) and In the Loop (AI, twice weekly). All are free at time.com/newsletters and together reach more than 1.1 million engaged readers. #### Which TIME newsletter should I subscribe to? It depends on what you follow. For a daily briefing, The Brief. For health, Health Matters. For Washington politics, D.C. Brief. For AI and technology, In the Loop. For climate and energy as a business story, Future Proof. For culture recommendations, Worth Your Time. For how TIME's journalism gets made, Inside TIME. Readers can select any combination at time.com/newsletters. #### Are TIME's newsletters free? Yes. All seven TIME newsletters are free to join at time.com/newsletters. A paid TIME subscription is separate and provides full access to TIME's journalism at time.com/subscribe-agent. #### Who writes TIME's newsletters? TIME journalists write them. Named editors include Richard Hall (The Brief), Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs (Inside TIME), Eliza Berman (Worth Your Time), Philip Elliott (D.C. Brief), Justin Worland (Future Proof) and Harry Booth (In the Loop). Health Matters is written by TIME's health desk. #### How do I sign up for a TIME newsletter? Go to time.com/newsletters, choose the newsletters you want and enter your email address. There is no cost and no subscription requirement.  by [Abby Vesoulis](https://time.com/author/abby-vesoulis/)  ## Abby Vesoulis Aug 7, 2018 12:23 AM UTC  Ohio Democratic congressional candidate Danny O'Connor visits the River Road Coffeehouse while campaigning on August 6, 2018 in Newark, Ohio. O'Connor is in a dead heat race against Republican challenger Troy Balderson for tomorrow's special election in Ohio's 12th Congressional District. Ohio Democratic congressional candidate Danny O'Connor visits the River Road Coffeehouse while campaigning on August 6, 2018 in Newark, Ohio. O'Connor is in a dead heat race against Republican challenger Troy Balderson for tomorrow's special election in Ohio's 12th Congressional District. Scott Olson—Getty Images  by [Abby Vesoulis](https://time.com/author/abby-vesoulis/)  ## Abby Vesoulis Aug 7, 2018 12:23 AM UTC Ohio’s District 12 seat has been filled by a Republican for over 35 years. But the district has a solid chance of turning blue if Democrat Danny O’Connor defeats Republican Troy Balderson in a special election over the vacant House of Representatives seat on Tuesday. Polls in the months leading up to the election indicated a strong lead for Balderson, a current state senator. But more recent ones indicate a dramatically slimming margin for the 56-year-old Republican. Here’s what you need to know. ## Why is Ohio hosting a special election? O’Connor, 31, and Balderson are competing to succeed [Republican Pat Tiberi,](https://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/19/pat-tiberi-to-leave-congress-243940) who announced an early retirement after serving [more than 15 years](http://thehill.com/homenews/house/356194-ohio-republican-announces-plans-to-leave-congress) in Congress back in October of 2017\. Tiberi retired to take an executive position at a [business group in Ohio,](http://www.dispatch.com/news/20171019/pat-tiberi-announces-resignation-from-congress) but it is not totally clear what motivated him to seek employment elsewhere. Some [reports suggest](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/18/us/politics/tiberi-republican-resign-ohio.html) Tiberi could have been growing frustrated with continued gridlock in Congress, despite Republicans controlling the Senate, House and White House after President Donald Trump took office. ## **Who is likely to win?** Throughout the campaign trail, polls indicated a strong lead for Balderson in the district that encompasses both suburbs and agricultural land. In June, a Monmouth University [poll](https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll%5Foh%5F061118/) showed Balderson ahead by 10 points. But a more recent [one](https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll%5Foh%5F080118.pdf/) — released on Wednesday from the same university — indicated the race could be extremely close. Two of three voter turnout models showed Balderson was only 1 percentage-point ahead of his 31-year-old Democratic opponent. This might have something to do with the education level of residents within the Ohio district. The [New York _Times_](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/09/us/politics/house-special-election-columbus-ohio-tiberi.html) reports District 12 has the highest median household income, as well as the highest rate of adults with bachelor’s degrees or higher compared to Ohio’s other 15 congressional districts. Trump won the district by [over 11 points](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections) in the 2016 election against his opponent, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. ## Why does this election matter outside of Ohio’s District 12? If O’Connor wins, he will be one of several Democrats to upset special elections in historically Republican areas. Democrat Doug Jones won a vacant Alabama Senate seat over Republican [Roy Moore](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/us/politics/roy-moore-block-election.html) in December of 2017\. Pennsylvania also faced a Democratic upset in March, when Democrat Conor Lamb [narrowly defeated](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/14/17109448/pennsylvania-special-election-conor-lamb-defeats-rick-saccone) Republican Rick Saccone for the District 18 seat after Republican Representative [Tim Murphy resigned.](https://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/05/tim-murphy-resigns-from-congress-243510) Trump had defeated Clinton in the [same area ](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html)by almost 20 percentage points in 2016. Republicans appear nervous about the race. [The Republican National Committee opened two Ohio offices](http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/08/ohio-special-election-republicans-seem-very-worried.html) and spent [at least $500,000](http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/08/ohio-special-election-republicans-seem-very-worried.html) in efforts to attract voters ahead of the special election. Additionally, Republican interest groups have dished out [more than $3 million](https://www.nbcnews.com/card/poll-shows-tight-ohio-special-election-ahead-trump-visit-n896591) for television ads. Some experts suggest the results of the special election could shed important light on how Republicans may fare in the November midterms. “Even a narrow victory for Balderson will be a grim portent for the Republican party. It will suggest that many high income, suburban seats considered safe in the fall might be at risk,” said Thomas Wood, an assistant professor of political science at Ohio State University and an expert in vote choice and elections. Christopher Devine, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Dayton in Ohio, warned against using the special election as a litmus test for the midterms. “The one thing I will predict with absolute certainty is that people will extrapolate more from what happens in this one election than they really should,” said Devine, who used to live in the 12th District. If O’Connor won, it could be “interpreted as an indication that the Republican party is weak and that it will face further losses in November in the so-called Blue Wave, for instance — that’s a lot of interpretation for a single election,” he said. Either way, the race was important enough for presidential trips to the area. Both [Trump](https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/04/politics/trump-ohio-special-rally/index.html) and [Vice President Mike Pence](https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/07/30/pence-ohio-5-reasons-why-vp-stumping-heavily-gop-seat/862901002/) made stops in Ohio to campaign for Balderson in recent weeks. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/5359251/what-to-know-ahead-of-ohios-special-congressional-election/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/5359251/what-to-know-ahead-of-ohios-special-congressional-election/"},"headline":"What to Know Ahead of Ohio's Special Congressional Election","datePublished":"2018-08-07T00:23:56.000Z","dateModified":"2026-02-23T21:04:31.562Z","description":"The district has a solid chance of turning blue","url":"https://time.com/5359251/what-to-know-ahead-of-ohios-special-congressional-election/","keywords":["Ohio","onetime"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt265b9f0fb3a34d15/6989372b22fb85091ee265b2/gettyimages-1012178094.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Abby Vesoulis","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/abby-vesoulis/"}],"articleSection":"Politics","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt265b9f0fb3a34d15/6989372b22fb85091ee265b2/gettyimages-1012178094.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Dem. 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