--- title: No One Knows Who Will Win Alabama's Senate Election description: The polls for the race are all over the map canonical: https://time.com/5061413/roy-moore-alabama-senate-election/ author: Alana Abramson article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2017-12-12T21:22:03.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-12T08:41:56.534Z article:section: Politics og:title: No One Knows Who Will Win Alabama's Senate Election og:description: Polls are all over the map. og:url: https://time.com/5061413/roy-moore-alabama-senate-election/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd504826f19b1ef32/6988f4c122fb854537e2406b/roy-moore-doug-jones-alabama-election.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 3000 og:image:height: 1688 og:image:alt: Roy Moore vs Doug Jones og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: No One Knows Who Will Win Alabama's Senate Election twitter:description: Polls are all over the map. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd504826f19b1ef32/6988f4c122fb854537e2406b/roy-moore-doug-jones-alabama-election.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # No One Knows Who Will Win Alabama's Senate Election > Sponsored content. 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It explains the politics, personalities and power dynamics behind the headlines, twice a week. #### Where can I get analysis of Washington politics by email? D.C. Brief is TIME's free Washington politics newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. It is written by a TIME senior correspondent who covers the capital full time. #### Who writes TIME's D.C. Brief? Philip Elliott, a senior correspondent at TIME, writes D.C. Brief. #### Is D.C. Brief free? Yes. D.C. Brief is free at time.com/newsletters. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-dcbrief-2026q3/newsletters?i=c707845b-a3f5-4c59-b566-0ee3c7c83209&cr=time-nl-dcbrief-2026q3-v1) ## Video: President Trump: America 'Cannot Afford' for Roy Moore to Lose Alabama Senate Election [Watch (HLS stream): President Trump: America 'Cannot Afford' for Roy Moore to Lose Alabama Senate Election](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/NI2MW2UA.m3u8) (1:01)  _Published 2017-12-09. President Donald Trump on Friday urged voters to elect a Republican Senate candidate in Alabama who has been dogged by allegations of sexual misconduct, warning that America "cannot afford" to have a Democrat win the hard-fought campaign instead._  by [Alana Abramson](https://time.com/author/alana-abramson/)  ## Alana Abramson Dec 12, 2017 9:22 PM UTC President Donald Trump on Friday urged voters to elect a Republican Senate candidate in Alabama who has been dogged by allegations of sexual misconduct, warning that America "cannot afford" to have a Democrat win the hard-fought campaign instead.  by [Alana Abramson](https://time.com/author/alana-abramson/)  ## Alana Abramson Dec 12, 2017 9:22 PM UTC Facing a special election in Alabama that has been among the most bizarre in recent memory, everyone from pundits to pollsters has thrown up their hands about who will win. Some polls have showed Democrat Doug Jones with a clear advantage over embattled Republican Roy Moore, who has been accused by 9 women of sexual misconduct in the past month. But other polls showed Moore ahead. Election analysts such as [Stuart Rothenberg](http://www.insideelections.com/news/article/alabama-senate-special-moore-or-less-a-toss-up) to [Charlie Cook](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/alabama-senate/alabama-senate-jump-ball) have rated the race a true tossup that could go either way, while several pollsters have released multiple projections based on different models of which voters will turn out. Chris Jackson, who works for Ipsos Public Affairs, which conducts polling, explained on Twitter that Jones could win by 4 points if turnout looked like the 2008 presidential election, when Democrats took control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, but Moore could win if turnout looked like the 2010 midterms, when Republican regained control of the House of Representatives and gained six Senate seats. > [](https://twitter.com/jcbjackson/status/940633912371499008) Monmouth University Polling institute[ had similar findings Monday,](https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll%5FAL%5F121117/) noting that if turnout is similar to the 2014 midterm elections, Moore would win by 4 points, 48 percent to 44 percent. If turnout is similar to the 2016 election, Jones would win by three points, 48 percent to 45 percent. And if turnout is similar to the 2017 gubernatorial elections, the two would tie at 46 percent. ## Transcript [ APPLAUSE ] We cannot afford this country. The future of this country cannot afford to lose a seat in the very, very close, United States there. We can't afford it, folks. We can't. [ APPLAUSE ] We can't afford to have a liberal democrat who is completely controlled by Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer. We can't do it, we can't do it. [ APPLAUSE ] His name is Jones and he's their total puppet and everybody knows it, he will never ever vote for us. We need somebody in that senate seat who will vote for our make America Great Again agenda. So get out and vote for Roy Moore. Do it. Do it. 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