--- description: China's population could be 90 million people fewer than previously believed, and may already have been overtaken by India, researchers said title: China Has '90 Million Fewer People' Than Officially Stated image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt7a8a15554623003b/6988ce9ea988ca6e106bc5d1/gettyimages-494865692.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  * [World](/section/world/) ## World Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close # India May Have Already Overtaken China as the World's Most Populous Nation by [Ryan Kilpatrick](/author/ryan-kilpatrick/) ## Ryan Kilpatrick Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close May 24, 2017 5:21 AM CUT  A nurse takes care of new born babies at People's Hospital of Ganyu on October 1, 2013 in Lianyungang, China. A nurse takes care of new born babies at People's Hospital of Ganyu on October 1, 2013 in Lianyungang, China.VCG/Getty Images by [Ryan Kilpatrick](/author/ryan-kilpatrick/) ## Ryan Kilpatrick Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close May 24, 2017 5:21 AM CUT China’s population [could have 90 million](https://www.ft.com/content/bb91ae64-3fc2-11e7-82b6-896b95f30f58 "undefined") fewer people than previously believed, and may already have been overtaken by India as the world’s most populous country, independent researchers said Monday. Yi Fuxian, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, suggested that China’s actual population may have been 1.29 billion last year, the _Financial Times_ reports. Official figures from the National Bureau of Statistics put the number at 1.37 billion. Presenting his research at China’s Peking University, Yi said the statistical overshoot could be down to overblown fertility rate figures. Although 2015 estimates put China’s fertility rate at 1.6 children per woman, Yi thinks it could have been as low as 1.05. If Yi’s calculations are correct, that would mean that China’s population has already been surpassed by India’s — something that the United Nations had not [projected](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-33720723 "undefined") to happen until 2022 at the earliest. Last year, India’s government reported a population of 1.33 billion. A longtime critic of China’s “[one-child policy,](http://time.com/4598999/china-one-child-policy-family-planning/?iid=sr-link1 "undefined")” which was loosened last year to allow more couples to give birth to a second child, Yi believes that Beijing’s official population statistics have been overstated for decades — a claim [backed by other](http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2095311/china-population-much-smaller-you-think-researchers-say "undefined") researchers at the conference. Due to the sharp drop in births brought about the policy’s introduction in 1979, China now faces a population crisis as the number of working-age adults continues to fall and the proportion of elderly who rely on them grows. \[[_FT_](https://www.ft.com/content/bb91ae64-3fc2-11e7-82b6-896b95f30f58 "undefined")\] ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/4791867/china-population-crisis-india/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/4791867/china-population-crisis-india/"},"headline":"India May Have Already Overtaken China as the World's Most Populous Nation","datePublished":"2017-05-24T05:21:13.000Z","dateModified":"2026-02-23T05:05:21.746Z","description":"One researcher says China's population figures have been overstated for decades","url":"https://time.com/4791867/china-population-crisis-india/","keywords":["China","onetime"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt7a8a15554623003b/6988ce9ea988ca6e106bc5d1/gettyimages-494865692.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Ryan Kilpatrick","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/ryan-kilpatrick/"}],"articleSection":"World","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt7a8a15554623003b/6988ce9ea988ca6e106bc5d1/gettyimages-494865692.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"China To End One-child Policy","caption":"China To End One-child Policy","creditText":"VCG/Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/world/","name":"World"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/4791867/china-population-crisis-india/","name":"India May Have Already Overtaken China as the World's Most Populous Nation"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"How Asia Is Solving Its Population Problem","description":"Asia needs a baby boom","thumbnailUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/goYqBGwi/poster.jpg?width=720","uploadDate":"2015-10-30T21:53:35.000Z","contentUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/goYqBGwi.m3u8","embedUrl":"https://time.com/4791867/china-population-crisis-india/","duration":"PT1M22S","potentialAction":{"@type":"SeekToAction","target":"https://time.com/4791867/china-population-crisis-india/?jw_start={seek_to_second_number}","startOffset-input":"required name=seek_to_second_number"}}] ```