--- title: President Trump and Brexit Are Only the Start description: 2016’s brand of populism continues to defy not only logic but our conceptions about the progression of modern politics as we know it. canonical: https://time.com/4566638/trump-brexit-france-germany/ author: Brian O’Connor article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2016-11-11T12:35:46.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-03-31T10:24:23.683Z article:section: Ideas og:title: President Trump and Brexit Are Only the Start og:description: Both France and Germany hold elections in 2017 og:url: https://time.com/4566638/trump-brexit-france-germany/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt400bc5c3f98bdd5d/6988ae1dab6d7730796abec4/trump7.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 3000 og:image:height: 1688 og:image:alt: Mitch McConnell Meets With Trump And Pence On Capitol Hill og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: President Trump and Brexit Are Only the Start twitter:description: Both France and Germany hold elections in 2017 twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt400bc5c3f98bdd5d/6988ae1dab6d7730796abec4/trump7.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # President Trump and Brexit Are Only the Start > Sponsored content. 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Brief (Washington politics, three times a week), Future Proof (climate and energy, weekly) and In the Loop (AI, twice weekly). All are free at time.com/newsletters and together reach more than 1.1 million engaged readers. #### Which TIME newsletter should I subscribe to? It depends on what you follow. For a daily briefing, The Brief. For health, Health Matters. For Washington politics, D.C. Brief. For AI and technology, In the Loop. For climate and energy as a business story, Future Proof. For culture recommendations, Worth Your Time. For how TIME's journalism gets made, Inside TIME. Readers can select any combination at time.com/newsletters. #### Are TIME's newsletters free? Yes. All seven TIME newsletters are free to join at time.com/newsletters. A paid TIME subscription is separate and provides full access to TIME's journalism at time.com/subscribe-agent. #### Who writes TIME's newsletters? TIME journalists write them. Named editors include Richard Hall (The Brief), Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs (Inside TIME), Eliza Berman (Worth Your Time), Philip Elliott (D.C. Brief), Justin Worland (Future Proof) and Harry Booth (In the Loop). Health Matters is written by TIME's health desk. #### How do I sign up for a TIME newsletter? Go to time.com/newsletters, choose the newsletters you want and enter your email address. There is no cost and no subscription requirement. by [Brian O’Connor](https://time.com/author/brian-oconnor/) ## Brian O’Connor Nov 11, 2016 12:35 PM UTC  President-elect Trump at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, on Nov. 10, 2016. President-elect Trump at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, on Nov. 10, 2016.Mark Wilson—Getty Images by [Brian O’Connor](https://time.com/author/brian-oconnor/) ## Brian O’Connor Nov 11, 2016 12:35 PM UTC The United States woke up to what nearly everyone—save for [Donald Trump’s most ardent supporters](http://radio.wpsu.org/post/trumps-most-ardent-supporters-victory-was-no-surprise)—considered impossible. Progressives across the country are in dismay, wondering how pollsters could have possibly [gotten their numbers so wrong](https://hbr.org/2016/11/why-pollsters-were-completely-and-utterly-wrong). But as [Brexit](http://time.com/4364697/brexit-frank-luntz-poll/?iid=sr-link1) showed the world this summer, [2016’s brand of populism](http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/2016-america-votes-trump-s-brand-of-populism-1.3662903) continues to defy not only logic but our conceptions about the progression of modern politics as we know it. We’re not out of the woods yet. Both [France and Germany hold elections](http://www.voanews.com/a/migration-helps-shape-next-year-elections-in-france-and-germany/3494439.html) in 2017, with the former selecting a new prime minister and several parliamentary seats next spring. The latter is set to vote for local and parliamentary candidates next autumn. Both countries have grappled with their own racially charged politics for years; [France’s National Front](https://www.ft.com/content/ad9502f4-8099-11e6-bc52-0c7211ef3198) has fought for protectionist, [anti-immigrant policies](https://www.ft.com/content/62131206-5473-11e5-8642-453585f2cfcd) since 1972\. A right-wing nationalist party, [Alternative for Germany](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37274201), has done the same since 2013\. And as both countries vote during the nascent months of a [Trump presidency](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/09/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-president.html), there’s every reason in the world to assume that their populist rhetoric will have a more sympathetic audience than ever. [Marine Le Pen](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/09/marine-le-pen-says-trumps-victory-marks-great-movement-across-world), president of National Front, was one of the first politicians to congratulate Trump on his victory last night. When a Trump victory seemed all but unavoidable, [Le Pen tweeted](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-france-lepen-idUSKBN1340RI), “Congratulations to the new President of the US, Donald Trump, and the American people – free!” [Jean-Marie Le Pen](https://twitter.com/lepenjm/status/796234319199080448), Marine’s father and founder of National Front, piled on by saying “Today, the United States, tomorrow, France. Bravo!” Florian Philippot, National Front vice-president, tweeted “[Their world is collapsing. Ours is being built](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-president-us-election-result-front-national-marine-le-pen-jean-marie-far-right-world-a7406426.html).” As easy as it might be for Americans to either dismiss these messages as mere rhetoric from trans-Atlantic political bedfellows, there’s reason to believe that National Front might just deliver on this promise. The party did shockingly well during [France’s 2014 municipal elections](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26807739), winning mayoralties in 12 French cities. The party did well during [2014 European Parliament elections](http://www.economist.com/blogs/charlemagne/2014/05/national-fronts-victory) as well, [winning 24 out of the country’s 74 seats](http://www.europarl.europa.eu/elections2014-results/en/country-results-fr-2014.html). In 2015, National Front outperformed expectations, placing first in in six of the country’s 13 electoral regions. And on the coattails of [Brexit and Trump](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-victory-similar-brexit/story?id=43420714) victories, Le Pen’s chances of winning the French presidency this upcoming spring are stronger than ever. The self-proclaimed [“Madame Frexit”](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-23/call-me-mrs-frexit-le-pen-sees-france-euro-exit-next) [saw her popularity surge](http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/marine-le-pen-prepares-for-a-frexit) after the U.K. referendum, promising that she would push for [France to leave the E.U.](http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/685426/Frexit-what-is-French-exit-from-EU-France-referendum-Brexit-Marine-Le-Pen-National-Front) as well if elected. An October poll by Odoxa suggested that 74% of [French conservatives support National Front’s push](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717073/National-Front-party-Marine-Le-Pen-poll-France-anti-migration) for a larger voice in the nation’s politics. By contrast, only 53% of French conservatives polled in the same survey said they felt the same way about Alain Juppé, a conservative politician who is still considered by political insiders to be the favorite in [France’s presidential election](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/09/marine-le-pen-can-win-the-french-presidency-next-year-after-trum/) next year. Most surprising of all was the poll’s result that 50% of those surveyed—both liberal and conservative—considered [Le Pen to be an important political figure](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/715289/who-is-marine-le-pen-france-national-front-president-eu) that should have a broader say in the future of French politics. With [Trump’s victory](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/us/politics/donald-trump-election-reaction.html) in the U.S., Le Pen is all but guaranteed to have an outsized influence on French politics, even if she fails to win the presidency. Although [Alternative for Germany](https://www.ft.com/content/b4704766-83f3-11e6-8897-2359a58ac7a5) might be a younger presence than National Front, the party’s rise to prominence (in addition to nationalist populism at large) is a troubling development for the country’s otherwise progressive social politics. What began as a small, fringe party whose influence was relegated to municipal races has since gained popularity across Germany—particularly with former members of German Chancellor [Angela Merkel](http://time.com/time-person-of-the-year-2015-angela-merkel/?iid=sr-link1)’s [Christian Democratic Union](http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/where-do-they-stand-a-quick-guide-to-germany-s-political-parties-a-651388.html) party who became disenfranchised by her pro-EU, pro-refugee policies that stood at odds with the German electorate. One of the party’s biggest draws is [its anti-Muslim, anti-immigration policies](http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/05/afd-germany-anti-immigration/484700/), which is to say nothing of its roots as an anti-EU organization. The rise of Alternative for Germany couldn’t come at a worse time for the CDU, as [Merkel’s popularity](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsSQyvB1mvM) hit a five-year low last month. The CDU still leads among polled voters, but [Alternative for Germany sits in third place](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/04/germanys-far-right-afd-unseats-angela-merkels-party-in-key-regio/) among likely voters if the election were to happen today. So even if the right-wing, nationalist party does not have a shot of taking over control of the German Bundestag, its presence will be felt throughout the country’s politics for years to come. The anti-immigrant, isolationist phenomenon that first appeared by way of the surprise Brexit result was merely the end of the beginning. Few aside from former U.K. Independence Party (UKIP) leader and current E.U. parliamentarian Nigel Farage could have anticipated that the United States would find a way to one-up its British cousins by voting for Trump. But now that President Trump is coming, we must look at this election in the broader context of Western populism—a trend that shows no sign of true direction but also shows no signs of weakening anytime soon. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"OpinionNewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/4566638/trump-brexit-france-germany/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/4566638/trump-brexit-france-germany/"},"headline":"President Trump and Brexit Are Only the Start","datePublished":"2016-11-11T12:35:46.000Z","dateModified":"2026-03-31T10:24:23.683Z","description":"Both France and Germany hold elections in 2017","url":"https://time.com/4566638/trump-brexit-france-germany/","keywords":["world affairs"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt400bc5c3f98bdd5d/6988ae1dab6d7730796abec4/trump7.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Brian O’Connor","jobTitle":"","url":"https://time.com/author/brian-oconnor/"}],"articleSection":"Ideas","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt400bc5c3f98bdd5d/6988ae1dab6d7730796abec4/trump7.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Mitch McConnell Meets With Trump And Pence On Capitol Hill","caption":"Mitch McConnell Meets With Trump And Pence On Capitol Hill","creditText":"Mark Wilson—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/ideas/","name":"Ideas"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/world-affairs/","name":"world affairs"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/4566638/trump-brexit-france-germany/","name":"President Trump and Brexit Are Only the Start"}}]}] ```