TIME Donald Trump

Donald Trump Up Slightly in New Florida Poll

It's a must-win state

Donald Trump has independent voters to thank for a two-point advantage in Florida, a new poll reveals.

In a Bloomberg Politics poll released Wednesday, likely voters picked Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton, 45% to 43%, in a four-way race where third-party candidates are included on the ballot. Things tighten up in a two-way race, however, with 46% of voters choosing Trump and 45% backing Clinton, where Trump has a strong showing from independents.

Independents backed President Barack Obama over Mitt Romney in 2012 by a slim margin.

Florida going for Trump could be huge news for the candidate, as the state’s 29 electoral votes would be crucial as Election Day approaches and his chances of winning get slimmer and slimmer.

Clinton has had a better showing than Trump in polling in the state. The RealClearPolitics average for Florida shows Clinton ahead nearly 2% in a four-way race.

The poll also shows incumbent Marco Rubio handily winning his senate race by 10 points.

The Bloomberg survey was conducted Friday through Monday and surveyed 805 likley voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2%.

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