--- description: The U.S. Southwest could face destructive mega-droughts without dramatic action to curb emissions that cause climate change title: Southwestern U.S. Faces 'Mega-Drought' by End of Century image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt05ec3992c01aa74b/6988a8ea0b72e39d3a6eb400/mega-drought-california-drought.jpeg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  * [Science](/section/science/) ## Science Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close * [climate change](/tag/climate-change/) ## climate change Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close # Southwestern U.S. Faces 'Mega-Drought' by End of Century  by [Justin Worland](/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Senior Correspondent Oct 6, 2016 2:20 PM CUT  Kristian Bell—Getty Images/RooM RF  by [Justin Worland](/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Senior Correspondent Oct 6, 2016 2:20 PM CUT The U.S. Southwest could face destructive mega-droughts unless dramatic action is taken to curb emissions of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change, according to new [research](http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/10/e1600873 "undefined"). Researchers behind the study, published in the journal _Science Advances,_ found that expected temperature increases will lead to a 70% chance of a mega-drought assuming a moderate increase in precipitation. If rainfall remains constant or falls, the chance of a mega-drought soars above 90%, according to the study. Mega-droughts have the intensity of the worst droughts of the 20th century but last for decades. A mega-drought in the American Southwest would strain water resources in a highly populated region. The ongoing [California drought](http://time.com/3621246/california-drought-study/ "undefined") has led to unprecedented water restrictions after only six years. Researchers say their findings have a silver lining: ongoing efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could significantly limit the chances of such a drought. If temperature rise in the region remains below 2°C (3.6°F), the risk of a mega-drought will drop below 66% in most cases of precipitation, according to the study. The stated goal of the [Paris Agreement](http://time.com/4146764/paris-agreement-climate-cop-21/ "undefined") on climate change is to keep global temperature rise below 2°C (3.6°F) by 2100. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/4521057/megadrought-california-climate-change/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/4521057/megadrought-california-climate-change/"},"headline":"Southwestern U.S. Faces 'Mega-Drought' by End of Century","datePublished":"2016-10-06T14:20:37.000Z","dateModified":"2026-02-23T01:02:55.367Z","description":"A mega-drought would make the ongoing California drought look small","url":"https://time.com/4521057/megadrought-california-climate-change/","keywords":["climate change"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt05ec3992c01aa74b/6988a8ea0b72e39d3a6eb400/mega-drought-california-drought.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Justin Worland","jobTitle":"Senior Correspondent","url":"https://time.com/author/justin-worland/"}],"articleSection":"Science","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt05ec3992c01aa74b/6988a8ea0b72e39d3a6eb400/mega-drought-california-drought.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"mega-drought california drought","caption":"mega-drought california drought","creditText":"Kristian Bell—Getty Images/RooM RF","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/science/","name":"Science"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/climate-change/","name":"climate change"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/4521057/megadrought-california-climate-change/","name":"Southwestern U.S. Faces 'Mega-Drought' by End of Century"}}]}] ```