The national CNN/ORC poll, released on Tuesday, found that 45% of likely voters support Trump, while 43% said they support Clinton (Trump’s 2-point lead is within the poll’s margin of error but still marks a shift from previous polls that showed Clinton significantly ahead). Libertarian Gary Johnson earned the support of 7% of likely voters, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein earned 2%.
Most voters said they still expect Clinton will win the election in November, with 59% of respondents saying they think she will be elected and 34% saying the same about Trump.
Trump has an edge with independents, men, white voters and older voters, according to the survey. Clinton, on the other hand, is winning with women, younger voters, college graduates and non-white voters. Clinton also did better among registered voters as a whole, a broader group than likely voters; 44% of registered voters support Clinton, while 41% support Trump, the poll found.
Respondents gave Trump an edge as the candidate more trusted to handle the economy and terrorism, while Clinton holds an edge in handling foreign policy. Voters were almost evenly split in their view of the candidates’ differing approaches to immigration, with Clinton holding a slight lead.
The poll—conducted by telephone from Sept. 1 to Sept. 4—surveyed 1,001 adults, including 886 registered voters and 786 likely voters. The margin of error among registered or likely voters was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.