--- title: Donald Trump States: Which Blue States Can He Really Win? description: Donald Trump's electoral map seeks to turn a lot of blue states red. canonical: https://time.com/4400216/donald-trump-blue-states/ author: Julissa Higgins article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2016-07-11T16:04:01.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-19T07:42:05.204Z article:section: Politics og:title: Can Trump Really Win These Blue States? og:description: He talks a lot, but there's little evidence. og:url: https://time.com/4400216/donald-trump-blue-states/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt157338dad7461f49/69889b5c524fc0c6d9df8ac7/trump1.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2560 og:image:height: 1440 og:image:alt: trump og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Can Trump Really Win These Blue States? twitter:description: He talks a lot, but there's little evidence. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt157338dad7461f49/69889b5c524fc0c6d9df8ac7/trump1.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Can Donald Trump Really Win These Blue States? > Sponsored content. 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Brief is TIME's Washington newsletter, written by senior correspondent Philip Elliott. It explains the politics, personalities and power dynamics behind the headlines, three times a week. It reaches 85,000 subscribers with a 37.0% open rate as of August 2026. #### Where can I get analysis of Washington politics by email? D.C. Brief is TIME's free Washington politics newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. It is written by a TIME senior correspondent who covers the capital full time. #### Who writes TIME's D.C. Brief? Philip Elliott, a senior correspondent at TIME, writes D.C. Brief. #### Is D.C. Brief free? Yes. D.C. Brief is free at time.com/newsletters. ## Video: Despite Obstacles Donald Trump Forges On [Watch (HLS stream): Despite Obstacles Donald Trump Forges On](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/7Qtjaxsh.m3u8) (0:44)  _Published 2016-07-04. Republican critics remain skeptical of the presidential candidate._ by [Julissa Higgins](https://time.com/author/julissa-higgins/) ## Julissa Higgins Jul 11, 2016 4:04 PM UTC  Getty Images (2); Illustration by Marisa Gertz for TIME by [Julissa Higgins](https://time.com/author/julissa-higgins/) ## Julissa Higgins Jul 11, 2016 4:04 PM UTC Donald Trump’s electoral map seeks to turn a lot of blue states red. His political director told Republican lawmakers last week that he’d target 17 states, including typically Democratic-voting states of [Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania](http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/07/06/donald-trump-campaign-to-target-17-states-in-november-election/). Trump later added the reliably blue states of [Washington, Oregon and Connecticut](http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/trump-meets-with-house-republicans) to the mix, according to Rep. Peter King, who was at a meeting with the presumptive Republican nominee. And in a meeting with Republican Senators, Trump [promised to win Illinois](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/07/07/trump-meets-with-hill-republicans-as-controversy-over-star-of-david-tweet-continues/) too. That’s not to mention [New York, California](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/01/no-donald-trump-isnt-going-to-win-new-york-or-california-in-november-not-even-close/) and [New Jersey](http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/06/donald%5Ftrump%5Fon%5Fwinning%5Fgarden%5Fstate%5Fi%5Fam%5Fnew%5Fjers.html), three Democratic heavyweights that he previously said he would win. But the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee aren’t airing TV ads and sending paid staffers to all of these states, a tipoff that some of Trump’s predictions are little more than bluster. Which blue states can Trump win? Here’s a look at the evidence for seven of them. **Washington** **Claim:** “We can win; we’re going to win Washington state.” — Trump, [speaking to a crowd in Washington](http://www.king5.com/news/local/trump-tells-wa-supporters-im-going-to-be-back-here-we-can-win/179603487) in early May, [a claim he again made last week](http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/trump-meets-with-house-republicans). **Evidence:** Washington state [hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate](http://www.270towin.com/states/Washington) since 1984\. Clinton led Trump by [12 percentage points](https://www.nwprogressive.org/files/polling/JUN16-WA-Clinton-vs-Trump-Survey-Results.pdf) in a poll in mid-June. Trump’s political director is [not focusing](http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/07/06/donald-trump-campaign-to-target-17-states-in-november-election/) on the state, and the Republican National Committee has not sent any paid staffers. **Advantage:** Clinton. There’s no reason to believe Trump will win Washington. **Oregon** **Claim:** “In November, we are going to carry your state. Some people say it’s inclined toward the Democrats. And then they tell me, ‘Mr. Trump, you have something we’ve never seen before. You’re going to win this state.'” — Trump, [speaking in early May](http://www.wweek.com/news/2016/05/06/donald-trump-tells-oregon-in-november-we-are-going-to-carry-your-state/), [a claim he again made last week](http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/trump-meets-with-house-republicans). **Evidence:** Oregon [hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate](http://www.270towin.com/states/Oregon) since 1984\. Clinton led Trump by [11 percentage points](http://www.270towin.com/states/Oregon) in a poll in May. Trump’s political director is [not focusing](http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/07/06/donald-trump-campaign-to-target-17-states-in-november-election/) on the state, and the Republican National Committee has not sent any paid staffers. **Advantage:** Clinton. Again, there’s no evidence Trump will win Oregon. **New Jersey** **Claim:** “I love New Jersey. I am New Jersey. Like a second home. I have property there. I have a lot of employees there. And frankly, I think we’re going to do well.” — Trump, in [an appearance on _Hannity_ in early June](http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/06/donald%5Ftrump%5Fon%5Fwinning%5Fgarden%5Fstate%5Fi%5Fam%5Fnew%5Fjers.html). **Evidence:** New Jersey [hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate](http://www.270towin.com/states/New%5FJersey) since 1988\. Clinton led Trump [by 12 percentage points](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nj/new%5Fjersey%5Ftrump%5Fvs%5Fclinton%5Fvs%5Fjohnson-5980.html) in a poll in late June. Trump’s political director is [not focusing](http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/07/06/donald-trump-campaign-to-target-17-states-in-november-election/) on the state, and the Republican National Committee has not sent any paid staffers. The state went for Republican Gov. Chris Christie twice, but his approval ratings are at [an all-time low](http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/278048-chris-christies-approval-rating-in-nj-down-to-26) since he endorsed Trump. **Advantage:** Clinton. There’s no reason to believe that Trump will win New Jersey. **Illinois** **Claim:** “I put so many states in play: Michigan being one. Illinois.” — Trump, speaking in late May, [a claim he made again last week](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/07/07/trump-meets-with-hill-republicans-as-controversy-over-star-of-david-tweet-continues/). **Evidence:** Illinois [hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate](http://www.270towin.com/states/Illinois) since 1988\. Clinton led Trump [by 25 percentage points](http://maristpoll.marist.edu/313-trump-ahead-in-fl-il-kasich-up-in-oh-clinton-ahead-in-fl-il-and-oh/) in a poll in early March. Trump’s own political director is [not focusing](http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/07/06/donald-trump-campaign-to-target-17-states-in-november-election/) on the state, and the Republican National Committee has not sent any paid staffers. **Advantage:** Clinton. The poll is more out-of-date than in some other states, but there’s little evidence things have changed since then. **Maine** **Claim:** “I will win states that no Republican would even run in.” — Trump, [speaking with the Associated Press](http://bigstory.ap.org/article/6c5f20b299f2404ca964e5be56610bed/trump-ramping-national-team-expand-battleground-states) in May for a story that included his Maine efforts. **Evidence:** Maine [hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate](http://www.270towin.com/states/maine) since 1988\. Clinton led Trump [by seven percentage points](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/me/maine%5Ftrump%5Fvs%5Fclinton-5896.html) in a poll in mid June. Trump’s political director is [targeting the state,](http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/07/06/donald-trump-campaign-to-target-17-states-in-november-election/) though the Republican National Committee has not sent any paid staffers. The state twice elected Republican Gov. Paul LePage, who once said [he was Trump before Trump was popular](http://bangordailynews.com/2016/05/06/the-point/warning-to-maine-democrats-dont-discount-trump/). **Advantage:** Clinton, with a caveat. She’ll win statewide, but Trump has a shot at [picking up an elector in the Second District](http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/donald-trump-maine-224961). (Maine [awards an elector](http://www.270towin.com/content/split-electoral-votes-maine-and-nebraska/) to the popular-vote winner in each congressional district.) **Michigan** **Claim:** “I’m going to win Michigan by a lot. Republicans don’t go there, horror show, closing factories there.” — Trump, [speaking in late May](http://www.cnn.com/interactive/2016/05/politics/trump-15-state-path/). **Evidence:** Michigan [hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate](http://www.270towin.com/states/Michigan) since 1988\. Clinton led Trump by [four percentage points](http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/05/31/poll-clinton-sanders-lead-trump-michigan-match-ups/85223072/) in a poll in late May. [Political forecasters](http://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard) say the state leans Democratic but is not a lock. Trump’s political director is [targeting the state](http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/07/06/donald-trump-campaign-to-target-17-states-in-november-election/), while the Republican National Committee has sent 34 paid staffers. **Advantage:** Clinton. The state still leans Democratic and Trump has a long way to go to swing it in his direction. **Pennsylvania** **Claim:** “I think we’re going to win Pennsylvania easily.” — Trump, [speaking in late May](http://www.pennlive.com/news/2016/05/were%5Fgoing%5Fto%5Fwin%5Fpennsylvania.html). **Evidence:** Pennsylvania [hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate](http://www.270towin.com/states/pennsylvania) since 1988\. Clinton and Trump [were essentially tied](https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/ps06212016%5FSfw34kbm.pdf) in a poll in early June. [Forecasters](http://rothenberggonzales.com/ratings/president) say the state leans Democratic but is not a lock. Trump’s political director is [targeting the state](http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/07/06/donald-trump-campaign-to-target-17-states-in-november-election/), while the Republican National Committee has 53 paid staffers here for the presidential race, while **Advantage:** Toss-up. Among the seven states on this list, Trump probably has his best shot here, though Democrats have [an advantage among registered voters](http://www.npr.org/2016/05/17/478417173/can-trump-turn-pennsylvanias-disaffected-democrats-into-believers). ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/4400216/donald-trump-blue-states/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/4400216/donald-trump-blue-states/"},"headline":"Can Donald Trump Really Win These Blue States?","datePublished":"2016-07-11T16:04:01.000Z","dateModified":"2026-08-19T07:42:05.204Z","description":"Donald Trump's electoral map seeks to turn a lot of blue states red.","url":"https://time.com/4400216/donald-trump-blue-states/","keywords":["Donald Trump","2016 Election","New Jersey","Michigan","Pennsylvania","Washington","Maine","Illinois","oregon","Polling"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt157338dad7461f49/69889b5c524fc0c6d9df8ac7/trump1.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Julissa Higgins","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/julissa-higgins/"}],"articleSection":"Politics","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt157338dad7461f49/69889b5c524fc0c6d9df8ac7/trump1.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"trump","caption":"trump blue states","creditText":"Getty Images (2); Illustration by Marisa Gertz for TIME","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/politics/","name":"Politics"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/donald-trump/","name":"Donald Trump"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/4400216/donald-trump-blue-states/","name":"Can Donald Trump Really Win These Blue States?"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"Despite Obstacles Donald Trump Forges On","description":"Republican critics remain skeptical of the presidential candidate.","thumbnailUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/7Qtjaxsh/poster.jpg?width=720","uploadDate":"2016-07-04T18:19:30.000Z","contentUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/7Qtjaxsh.m3u8","embedUrl":"https://time.com/4400216/donald-trump-blue-states/","duration":"PT44S","potentialAction":{"@type":"SeekToAction","target":"https://time.com/4400216/donald-trump-blue-states/?jw_start={seek_to_second_number}","startOffset-input":"required name=seek_to_second_number"}}] ```