--- title: Hurricane Season 2016: Uptick in Storms Expected After Quiet description: Hurricane forecasters predicted an upswing in tropical storm activity for this year's Atlantic hurricane season after quiet years. canonical: https://time.com/4350816/hurricane-season-outlook-2016/ author: Justin Worland article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2016-05-27T18:28:09.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-02-22T17:53:57.525Z article:section: Science og:title: Uptick in Hurricanes Expected After Years of Quiet og:description: 'It only takes one storm' og:url: https://time.com/4350816/hurricane-season-outlook-2016/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt1168d35d759ebeea/698895600b72e300fc6e99ac/hurricane-season-2016-forecast.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2400 og:image:height: 1350 og:image:alt: Hurricane Patricia hurricane season 2016 og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Uptick in Hurricanes Expected After Years of Quiet twitter:description: 'It only takes one storm' twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt1168d35d759ebeea/698895600b72e300fc6e99ac/hurricane-season-2016-forecast.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Uptick in Hurricanes Expected After Years of Quiet > Sponsored content. 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Future Proof is TIME's weekly climate and energy newsletter, written by senior correspondent Justin Worland. It connects the energy transition to the decisions reshaping business, technology, policy and markets. #### Where can I follow the energy transition as a business story? Future Proof covers climate and energy as an economic and business story rather than only an environmental one. It publishes every Friday and is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who writes Future Proof? Justin Worland, a senior correspondent at TIME and an award-winning climate journalist, writes Future Proof. #### Is Future Proof free? Yes. Future Proof is free at time.com/newsletters.  by [Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Senior Correspondent May 27, 2016 6:28 PM UTC  Hurricane Patricia is seen from the International Space Station. The hurricane made landfall on the Pacfic coast of Mexico on Oct. 23, 2015. Hurricane Patricia is seen from the International Space Station. The hurricane made landfall on the Pacfic coast of Mexico on Oct. 23, 2015. Scott Kelly/NASA—Getty Images  by [Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Senior Correspondent May 27, 2016 6:28 PM UTC Federal hurricane forecasters predicted an upswing in tropical storm activity for this year’s [Atlantic hurricane season](http://time.com/4294151/hurricane-season-2016/) on Friday after three relatively quiet years. The region will likely experience 10 to 16 named storms and one to four major hurricanes, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Friday. Last year 11 named storms formed in the Atlantic region, and two were classified as major hurricanes. Neither hurricane made landfall in the United States, according to a NOAA [report](http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/120115-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-ends-active-eastern-and-central-pacific-seasons-shatter-records.html). Federal officials urged U.S. residents in the hurricane zone to prepare for the possibility of tropical storms even though this season will technically be “near-normal,” an uptick from the “below-normal” storm activity of past years. Flooding and storm surge have turned relatively weak storms—[like Hurricane Katrina](http://time.com/4086096/hurricane-patricia-damage-explainer-mexico/) when it made landfall in New Orleans—into some of the most damaging. **Read More**: [Why ‘Once-In-A-Lifetime’ Flooding Keeps Happening](http://time.com/4061371/south-carolina-flooding-climate-change/) “Near-normal may sound encouraging, but… a near-normal season does not mean we’ll be off the hook,” said NOAA administrator Kathryn Sullivan on a conference call for journalists. “It only takes one storm.” A number of uncertain factors made this year’s prediction particularly challenging, NOAA said. Officials said there is a 45% chance of near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 25% chance of a below-normal season. Chief among the unknown variables is how [the end of El Niño](http://time.com/4346382/el-nino-la-nina-weather-drought/) will affect 2016 hurricanes. The [climate phenomenon](http://time.com/3996227/el-nino-forecast/) decreases the likelihood of tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean and increases the odds in the Pacific Ocean. And, while it has ended, its effects may linger into the summer. La Niña, which increases the chances of Atlantic Hurricanes, has a 70% chance of developing this year, according to NOAA. Forecasters also say that a period of high activity associated with the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation that began in 1995 may have ended. 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