By Tessa Berenson
April 18, 2016

Chancellor George Osborne has warned United Kingdom residents that the nation would be “permanently poorer” if it leaves the European Union.

BBC reports that a Treasury analysis found that if the U.K. exits the E.U., its economy would be 6% smaller in 2030 than if it stays.

“The conclusions could not be clearer. Britain would be permanently poorer if we left the E.U. to the tune of £4,300 for every household in the country. That’s a fact everyone should think about,” Osborne said.

Detractors say that a prediction out as far as 2030 can be disputed, and that the Treasury hasn’t always made accurate forecasts in the past.

There’s a vote on E.U. membership scheduled for June 23.

Write to Tessa Berenson at tessa.berenson@timeinc.com.

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