--- title: Trump: Why Tuesday Could Determine If Trump Wins description: At stake are 361 pledged delegates, more than 25% of the 1,237 needed to win the Republican nomination canonical: https://time.com/4258403/donald-trump-ohio-florida-tuesday/ author: Alex Altman article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2016-03-15T02:14:32.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-19T07:48:01.529Z article:section: Politics og:title: Trump: Why Tuesday Could Determine If Trump Wins og:description: At stake are 361 pledged delegates, more than 25% of the 1,237 needed to win the Republican nomination og:url: https://time.com/4258403/donald-trump-ohio-florida-tuesday/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt2d3391f10fe3e0bb/69888b073c163912b445c708/donald-trump19.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 5184 og:image:height: 2916 og:image:alt: Donald Trump Holds Campaign Town Hall In Tampa og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Trump: Why Tuesday Could Determine If Trump Wins twitter:description: At stake are 361 pledged delegates, more than 25% of the 1,237 needed to win the Republican nomination twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt2d3391f10fe3e0bb/69888b073c163912b445c708/donald-trump19.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Why Tuesday Could Determine If Trump Wins > Sponsored content. 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Brief is free at time.com/newsletters. ## Video: CNN Republican Debate: Watch The Republican Debate In Under Four Minutes [Watch (HLS stream): CNN Republican Debate: Watch The Republican Debate In Under Four Minutes](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/uVpZQXdg.m3u8) (3:55)  _Published 2016-03-11_ by [Alex Altman](https://time.com/author/alex-altman/) and [Zeke Miller](https://time.com/author/zeke-j-miller/) Mar 15, 2016 2:14 AM UTC  Donald Trump after speaking to supporters during a town hall meeting in Tampa , FL, on March 14, 2016 Donald Trump after speaking to supporters during a town hall meeting in Tampa , FL, on March 14, 2016 Brian Blanco—Getty Images by [Alex Altman](https://time.com/author/alex-altman/) and [Zeke Miller](https://time.com/author/zeke-j-miller/) Mar 15, 2016 2:14 AM UTC In the battle to stop Donald Trump, Tuesday marks the turning point. If Trump romps through the five states and one territory where voters will head to the polls, it will be nearly impossible for Republican opponents to deny him the nomination. A setback would darken Trump’s prospects of grabbing the outright delegate majority he needs to secure the nomination, kicking off a monthslong slog for delegates that could last until the GOP convention in Cleveland, where party bosses could knock the businessman off the top of the ticket. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders will fight for delegates in Ohio, Florida, Missouri and North Carolina, none of which is winner-take-all. Sanders is hoping to chip into Clinton’s significant delegate lead, particularly in the Rust Belt state of Ohio, while Clinton is expected to win big in Florida. After Clinton’s upset loss in Michigan last week, she is hoping to reassure supporters that she is on a smooth path to the convention and can win a broad swathe of Democratic voters, particularly young people. But the big story of the night will be the pivotal Republican contests, which come at a moment of historic upheaval. With the last hopes of the Republican Establishment floundering in the polls and [a pattern of political violence](http://time.com/4256580/donald-trump-rally-violence-response-cruz-rubio-kasich-hillary-clinton-sanders/) unseen in decades marring Trump’s public rallies, party officials and campaign strategists are desperate to seize their last best shot at stalling the front-runner’s momentum. All of which makes March 15 the most important date remaining on the GOP nominating calendar. At stake are 361 pledged delegates, more than 25% of the 1,237 needed to win the Republican nomination. The top prize is in Florida, where 99 delegates are at stake in a winner-take-all contest. Trump, is the prohibitive favorite, with [a nearly 20-point lead](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest%5Fpolls/gop%5Fpres%5Fprimary/) in the latest RealClearPolitics polling average over hometown Sen. Marco Rubio. A victory in the Sunshine State would likely result in Rubio’s swift exit from the race, which has been one of Trump’s goals in recent weeks as they have traded personal insults. But the big state to watch is Ohio, whose 66 delegates are also awarded in a winner-take-all format. As in Florida, a Trump victory would likely oust one of his three remaining rivals. Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who has yet to win a state and has staked the future of his candidacy on a home-field victory, [leads Trump narrowly in the polls](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio%5Frepublican%5Fpresidential%5Fprimary-4077.html). But if Trump ekes out a victory it would deal a decisive blow to the “Never Trump” movement. Also on the docket are primaries in Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, as well as nine delegates up for grabs in the Northern Marianas territory. Of those contests, North Carolina is the only straight proportional contest, dividing its 72 delegates among the finishers. That means Trump, who leads in the state, will divvy up delegates with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, the likely second-place finisher. Missouri awards five delegates to the winner of each congressional district, along with nine for the winner of the statewide vote in a hybrid system that could either split the state’s 52 delegates or turn it into another winner-take-all. Illinois’ system is even more complicated, with 15 delegates awarded to the top finisher, and the remaining directly elected on the ballot in each congressional district. The outlook in both Midwestern states is murky. Very little polling has been conducted in Missouri, which has an open primary (a format that has favored Trump) but is likely to have a majority of evangelical voters (a potential boon to Cruz). Cruz is hoping to pick off a passel of delegates there by winning its reddest districts. And while Trump leads in Illinois, Cruz has narrowed the gap in recent polls. The Texan spent Monday crisscrossing Illinois in a final push to siphon delegates from the more conservative rural sections of the state. By the end of Tuesday, more than 55% of convention delegates will have been bound, a marker which in cycles past has proven to be the time when front-runners become likely nominees. But perhaps not this time. Despite his substantial lead, Trump is a weak front-runner. He’s underperforming Mitt Romney and John McCain at this point in their campaigns, and unlike past nominees he has a defined ceiling of support, with a substantial segment of the party determined to resist his candidacy. If Kasich wins Ohio, Cruz springs an upset elsewhere or the field combines to peel away a bigger-than-expected chunk of delegates from Tuesday’s proportional contests, Trump will almost certainly fall short of the 1,237 delegates required to sew up the nomination. A Kasich win would propel him onward to moderate midwestern and northeastern states remaining on the calendar—like Indiana, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania—where his moderate tone and appeals to the business community could make a formidable opponent. If Trump wins all five states, he still faces an arduous path to 1,237\. Because so many delegates have already been awarded, Trump would still have to capture slightly over 50% of those remaining. The upcoming calendar works in his favor, with upcoming winner-take-all contests in western states like Arizona, on March 22, where his anti-immigration message should resonate, as well as a slate of delegate-rich Northeastern contests where Cruz—likely his sole remaining rival in this scenario—would be expected to struggle. But Cruz’s campaign says its polling shows that in the absence of Kasich and Rubio, the Texan would beat Trump in a head-to-head sprint to the finish line. Trump is still the only Republican with a realistic shot at getting to 1,237\. A contested convention looms if he falls short of that majority. Depending on the size of his lead, the party could resort to procedural rules to override the preference of a plurality of GOP voters, which could, in turn, spur an outright revolt that would further fracture the party. For the Republican Party, it’s a painful Sophie’s Choice. Roll the dice with Trump and hope his appeal to working class voters supersedes the distaste he sparks among minorities and women. Or be prepared to lose the general election standing up to him. _— With Sam Frizell in New York._ ## Transcript We want to have free trade but fair trade. If all we do is sell things to each other, we can only sell to 5 % of the people on earth. We're driving jobs overseas. But we clearly have to control our borders. We can't have people just walking in. Right now we're bringing in far too many low skilled workers. What that is doing is driving down The wages of hard working Americans. Anyone who tells you that social security can stay the way it is, is lying. 83 % of the federal budget in less than five years will all be spent on Medicare, Medicaid, the interest on the debt. I want to make America great again and I want to leave Social Security. As is. Hillary Clinton says she'll cut waste fraud and abuse if only we had smarter people in Washington that would fix the problem. You know what, that is the statement of a liberal who doesn; t understand government is the problem. Now there are more 18 year olds who believe they have a better chance of seeing a UFO than a social security check. We're all in this together We're gonna come up with solutions, we're gonna find the answers to things and so far I cannot believe how civil it's been up here. I am different in one primary respect and that's trade. And the effect of a 45 % tariff would be when you go the store, when you go to Walmart, when you're shopping for your kids, the prices you pay. Go up 45 %. The 45 % tax is a threat. I was not a tax it was a threat. You are paying the tax. It's not China that pays the tax. We'll build our factories here and we'll make our own products. And that's the way it should be done. Last night you told CNN " Islam hates us ." Did you mean all 1. 6 billion Muslims? I mean a lot of them. I know that a lot of people find appeal in the things Donald says cuz he says what people wish they could say. The problem is presidents can't just say anything they want. The people who represent radical Islam, they want to destroy everything that we're about and other Muslims who don't share their view. They have no laws, they have no rules, they have no regulation. And they chop off heads. They drown 40, 50, 60 people at a time. And we're working on a different set of parameters. If we capture any of these terrorists alive, they're not gonna have the right to remain silent. And they're not gonna go to a courtroom in Manhattan, they're gonna go to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and we will find out everything they know, [ APPLAUSE ] And we'll do so legally. [ APPLAUSE ] There's nobody on this stage that's more pro- Israeli than I am. The policy Donald is outlined, I don't know if he realizes is an anti- Israeli policy. There is no peace deal possible with the Palestinians at this moment. There just isn't. I would love for a relationship between Cuba and the United States to change, but it will require Cuba to change at least its government. I don't agree with President Obama. I do agree that something should be Should take place after 50 years it's enough time folks. And you know what passing those laws what impact it would have on the environment? Zero. Because China is still gonna be polluting. And India is still gonna be polluting. You can have a strong environmental Policy at the same time that you have strong economic growth. They are not inconsistent with one another. There is some anger. There's also great love for the country. It's a beautiful thing in many respects, but I certainly do not condone that at all, Jake. There are people out there who are worried about their jobs. You can either pray on that and be negative about it, or you can tell people That these things can be fixed. I think I'm gonna have the delegates, okay? I think. [ APPLAUSE ] Let's see what happens. If we nominate Donald Trump, Hillary wins. That's what an incredible nation we have. That the son of a bartender, and the son of a mailman and the son of a dishwasher and a successful businessman can all stand on this stage competing. Sometimes being positive isn't all that interesting, but it's very interesting to my family and my children and so many supporters that I meet all across the country. We will do whatever it takes to ensure that our children inherit from us what we inherited from our parents. Embrace these millions of people that now, for the first time ever, love The Republican Party and unify. Be smart and unify. 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