--- title: Syria Conflict Drought: Climate Change Played a Role description: Social scientists have warned in recent years that drought along the Mediterranean may contribute to instability and conflict in the region canonical: https://time.com/4246248/middle-east-drought-that-may-contribute-to-syrian-war-is-worst-in-900-years-study-says/ author: Justin Worland article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2016-03-03T17:01:09.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-02-22T15:35:29.678Z article:section: Science og:title: Syria Conflict Drought: Climate Change Played a Role og:description: Social scientists have warned in recent years that drought along the Mediterranean may contribute to instability and conflict in the region og:url: https://time.com/4246248/middle-east-drought-that-may-contribute-to-syrian-war-is-worst-in-900-years-study-says/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3a6de08b4cd8fa10/69888010524fc0d81fdf702d/syria-lebanon-drought.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 5760 og:image:height: 3240 og:image:alt: Syria Lebanon Drought og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Syria Conflict Drought: Climate Change Played a Role twitter:description: Social scientists have warned in recent years that drought along the Mediterranean may contribute to instability and conflict in the region twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3a6de08b4cd8fa10/69888010524fc0d81fdf702d/syria-lebanon-drought.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Middle East Drought That May Contribute to Syrian War is Worst in 900 Years, Study Says > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Future Proof: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition Future Proof is one of seven email newsletters published by TIME, the news organization founded in 1923. Making sense of the climate and energy economy. Future Proof examines the forces transforming energy and climate, and what those changes mean for business, technology, policy and the global economy. Senior correspondent Justin Worland goes beyond traditional climate coverage to connect the energy transition to the bigger decisions reshaping companies, markets and society. 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It reaches 40,000 subscribers with a 34.2% open rate and a 2.1% click rate as of August 2026. #### Where can I follow the energy transition as a business story? Future Proof covers climate and energy as an economic and business story rather than only an environmental one. It publishes every Friday and is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who writes Future Proof? Justin Worland, a senior correspondent at TIME and an award-winning climate journalist, writes Future Proof. #### Is Future Proof free? Yes. Future Proof is free at time.com/newsletters.  by [Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Senior Correspondent Mar 3, 2016 5:01 PM UTC  The artificial Qaraoun lake in Lebanon's Bekaa valley on on April 14, 2014 as the country braced for summer drought. The artificial Qaraoun lake in Lebanon's Bekaa valley on on April 14, 2014 as the country braced for summer drought.Joseph Eid—AFP/Getty Images  by [Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Senior Correspondent Mar 3, 2016 5:01 PM UTC Social scientists have warned in recent years that drought along the Mediterranean Sea in the Middle East may contribute to instability and conflict in the region. Now, [new research](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/nasa-finds-drought-in-eastern-mediterranean-worst-of-past-900-years) shows the drought may be the most devastating to strike the region in 900 years. Researchers behind the [study](http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JD023929/full), conducted by NASA and published in the _Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,_ used tree rings to show that the period from 1998 to 2012 was 10% to 20% drier than the worst period in the previous 900 years. Man-made climate change is at least in part to blame for the severity of the drought, according to the study. The devastating drought has contributed to a slew of problems in the region, including poverty and food insecurity. In turn, those issues have contributed to conflicts that have driven [millions to migrate](http://time.com/4024210/climate-change-migrants/) away from the region. Some social scientists have even [linked climate change and terrorism](http://time.com/4113801/climate-change-terrorism/). “I’m not telling you that the crisis in Syria was caused by climate change,” Secretary of State John Kerry said in a [speech](http://time.com/4077597/kerry-climate-speech/) in October. “But the devastating drought clearly made a bad situation a lot worse.” ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/4246248/middle-east-drought-that-may-contribute-to-syrian-war-is-worst-in-900-years-study-says/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/4246248/middle-east-drought-that-may-contribute-to-syrian-war-is-worst-in-900-years-study-says/"},"headline":"Middle East Drought That May Contribute to Syrian War is Worst in 900 Years, Study Says","datePublished":"2016-03-03T17:01:09.000Z","dateModified":"2026-02-22T15:35:29.678Z","description":"Climate change is at least in part to blame","url":"https://time.com/4246248/middle-east-drought-that-may-contribute-to-syrian-war-is-worst-in-900-years-study-says/","keywords":["climate change","Syria"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3a6de08b4cd8fa10/69888010524fc0d81fdf702d/syria-lebanon-drought.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Justin Worland","jobTitle":"Senior Correspondent","url":"https://time.com/author/justin-worland/"}],"articleSection":"Science","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3a6de08b4cd8fa10/69888010524fc0d81fdf702d/syria-lebanon-drought.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Syria Lebanon Drought","caption":"Syria Lebanon Drought","creditText":"Joseph Eid—AFP/Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/science/","name":"Science"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/climate-change/","name":"climate change"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/4246248/middle-east-drought-that-may-contribute-to-syrian-war-is-worst-in-900-years-study-says/","name":"Middle East Drought That May Contribute to Syrian War is Worst in 900 Years, Study Says"}}]}] ```