--- description: The 88th annual Academy Awards take place Sunday, Feb. 28 at 8:30 p.m. ET title: Here's Who Will Win—and Should Win—at the 2016 Oscars image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltde093bcdab65f2d0/6988d9b9bc6cfc69913e2a3c/time-logo.jpg?branch=production --- * [Entertainment](/section/entertainment/) ## Entertainment Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close * [movies](/tag/movies/) ## movies Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close # Here's Who Will Win—and Should Win—at the 2016 Oscars  by [Stephanie Zacharek](/author/stephanie-zacharek/)  ## Stephanie Zacharek Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Film Critic Feb 24, 2016 3:53 PM CUT  by [Stephanie Zacharek](/author/stephanie-zacharek/)  ## Stephanie Zacharek Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Film Critic Feb 24, 2016 3:53 PM CUT Critics, Oscar [prognosticators](http://time.com/4217056/what-this-years-oscars-says-about-america/ "undefined") and curious observers alike tend to look at the [Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences](http://time.com/4178963/oscar-nominations-2016/ "undefined") as a living, breathing organism hooked up to a giant unibrain (let’s say an older, largely male and mostly white unibrain). Like a finicky house pet, the Academy has likes and dislikes, some inexplicable and others as easy to read as the flapping of a golden retriever’s tail. Sometimes, its thinking is as blankly straightforward as that of a goldfish. But it’s also capable of Abyssinian-catlike capriciousness and mystery. What will happen this year? If we knew for sure, it wouldn’t be so much fun to try to guess. And so here are a few predictions’ worth of scattered kibble, based partly on the past proclivities of this shadowy creature known as the Academy, with some wild conjecture thrown in—counterweighted with my own personal favorites in each category. I take no responsibility for the occasional knocked-over vase, and face it: The surprises are half the fun. ### Best Picture  Open Road Films; 20th Century Fox _The Big Short |_ _Bridge of Spies |_ _Brooklyn |_ _Mad Max: Fury Road |_ _The Martian |_ **_The Revenant_** _|_ _Room |_ _Spotlight_ **Should win:** A great American news-reporting movie, and the fragile state of newspapers today gives _Spotlight_ an urgent, melancholy context. **Will win:** As a somber survivalist western, _The Revenant_ has a faux-gritty grandeur that’s likely to appeal to Academy voters. ### Actor in a Leading Role  20th Century Fox Bryan Cranston, _Trumbo |_ Matt Damon, _The Martian |_ **Leonardo DiCaprio,** **_The Revenant_** _|_ Michael Fassbender, _Steve Jobs |_ Eddie Redmayne, _The Danish Girl_ **Should win:** Watching characters suffer is rarely what it’s cracked up to be, but DiCaprio gives left-for-dead wilderness guide Hugh Glass scruffy vitality and plenty of soul. **Will win:** A marvelous child actor who grew into a clockwork-reliable grownup one, DiCaprio has never won an Oscar. Now is as good a time as any. ### Actress in a Leading Role  Fox Searchlight Pictures; A24 Cate Blanchett, _Carol |_ **Brie Larson,** **_Room_** _|_ Jennifer Lawrence, _Joy |_ Charlotte Rampling, _45 Years |_ Saoirse Ronan, _Brooklyn_ **Should win:** As a young Irish immigrant who becomes unsure of where her real home should be, Ronan gives the kind of tender, understated performance that doesn’t always nab prizes. **Will win:** Larson is a young, vibrant actress with lots of promise, and her performance in _Room,_ as a mother struggling under extraordinary circumstances, has a level of gravity the Academy tends to like. ### Actor in a Supporting Role  Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures; Warner Bros. Christian Bale, _The Big Short |_ Tom Hardy, _The Revenant |_ Mark Ruffalo, _Spotlight |_ Mark Rylance, _Bridge of Spies |_ **Sylvester Stallone,** **_Creed_** **Should win:** Rylance plays Soviet spy Rudolf Abel beautifully as an eternal outsider who’s both socially awkward and piercingly direct. **Will win:** Stallone is lovely in _Creed_, returning to the role that defined him, and he’s likely to prove a sentimental favorite with the Academy. ### Actress in a Supporting Role  Open Road Films; Universal Pictures Jennifer Jason Leigh, _T_ _he Hateful Eight |_ Rooney Mara, _Carol |_ Rachel McAdams, _Spotlight |_ Alicia Vikander, _The Danish Girl |_ **Kate Winslet,** **_Steve Jobs_** **Should win:** McAdams is superb as a diligent, compassionate reporter. But because _Spotlight_ is widely considered to be an ensemble film, she’s likely to be overlooked. **Will win:** Winslet won a Golden Globe for her portrayal of Apple exec and Steve Jobs confidant Joanna Hoffman; she’s probably looking pretty shiny to the Academy as well. ### Directing  Theo Wargo, Mike Marsland—Getty Images Adam McKay, _The Big Short |_ George Miller, _Mad Max: Fury Road |_ **Alejandro González Iñárritu,** **_The Revenant_** _|_ Lenny Abrahamson, _Room |_ Tom McCarthy, _Spotlight_ **Should win:** Tom McCarthy may not be flashy, but his classic newspaper movie _Spotlight_ is more subtly resonant than _The Revenant_. **Will win:** Accepting his Golden Globe for _The Revenant_, Alejandro González Iñárritu was self-assured to the point of seeming cocky. Sometimes the Academy just falls for braggadocio. ### Animated Feature Film  Lionsgate; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures _Anomalisa |_ _Boy and the World |_ **_Inside Out_** _|_ _Shaun the Sheep Movie |_ _When Marnie Was There_ **Will win:** Everyone seems to love Pixar charmer _Inside Out_, which explores the inner workings of a preteen girl’s brain. Like most Pixar flicks, it works hard at being charming. **Should win:** The visually imaginative stop-motion adventure _Shaun the Sheep Movie_, about a bunch of wooly wanderers in search of their amnesiac owner, has a loopy exuberance. ### Foreign Language Film  Ad Vitam; Sony Pictures Classics _Embrace of the Serpent |_ _Mustang |_ **_Son of Saul_** _|_ _Theeb |_ _A War_ **Should win:** _Mustang_, the debut film by Turkish-born filmmaker Deniz Gamze Ergüven, follows a family of girls growing up in a restrictive patriarchal household. Its lightness of touch is the key to its power. **Will win:** _Son of Saul,_ László Nemes’ skillful debut film about a concentration-camp prisoner clinging to the single task that will keep him feeling human, won the Grand Prix in Cannes last year and has been gathering steam ever since. ### Writing (Original Screenplay)  Open Road Films; Universal Pictures _Bridge of Spies |_ _Ex Machina |_ _Inside Out |_ _Spotlight |_ **_Straight Outta Compton_** **Should win:** Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy’s tense, taut, gloriously well-paced screenplay for _Spotlight_—which addresses a painful, sensitive subject—keeps the picture moving like a shot. **Will win:** _Straight Outta Compton’s_ screenplay—by Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff from a story by S. Leigh Savidge—is strong, and you can bet the Academy is desperate to redeem itself. ### Writing (Adapted Screenplay)  Paramount Pictures **_The Big Short_** _|_ _Brooklyn |_ _Carol |_ _The Martian |_ _Room_ **Should win:** Charles Randolph and Adam McKay’s adaptation of Michael Lewis’ 2010 exegesis of the subprime-mortgage crisis really sings, and it isn’t likely to take any other major award. **Will win:** _The Big Short_ clearly explains the seemingly inexplicable—without making the details any less jaw-droppingly appalling. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/4233141/oscars-2016-predictions/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/4233141/oscars-2016-predictions/"},"headline":"Here's Who Will Win—and Should Win—at the 2016 Oscars","datePublished":"2016-02-24T15:53:11.000Z","dateModified":"2026-05-11T05:00:22.423Z","description":"The 88th annual Academy Awards take place Sunday, Feb. 28 at 8:30 p.m. ET","url":"https://time.com/4233141/oscars-2016-predictions/","keywords":["movies"],"thumbnailUrl":"","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Stephanie Zacharek","jobTitle":"Film Critic","url":"https://time.com/author/stephanie-zacharek/"}],"articleSection":"Entertainment","image":[],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/entertainment/","name":"Entertainment"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/movies/","name":"movies"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/4233141/oscars-2016-predictions/","name":"Here's Who Will Win—and Should Win—at the 2016 Oscars"}}]}] ```