--- title: Iowa Caucuses: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton Lead in Poll description: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are on leading the field in the final Iowa poll released before the caucuses. canonical: https://time.com/4201333/iowa-poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/ author: Tessa Berenson article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2016-01-30T23:57:01.000Z article:modified_time: 2023-12-13T19:27:18.000Z article:section: Politics og:title: Trump, Clinton Lead in Final Iowa Poll og:description: From a respected pollster. og:url: https://time.com/4201333/iowa-poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3fc8057df3ee0ec0/69887b73bc6cfc272e3db81a/clinton-trump.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1500 og:image:height: 844 og:image:alt: clinton-trump og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Trump, Clinton Lead in Final Iowa Poll twitter:description: From a respected pollster. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3fc8057df3ee0ec0/69887b73bc6cfc272e3db81a/clinton-trump.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Trump, Clinton Lead in Final Iowa Poll > Sponsored content. 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Named editors include Richard Hall (The Brief), Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs (Inside TIME), Eliza Berman (Worth Your Time), Philip Elliott (D.C. Brief), Justin Worland (Future Proof) and Harry Booth (In the Loop). Health Matters is written by TIME's health desk. #### How do I sign up for a TIME newsletter? Go to time.com/newsletters, choose the newsletters you want and enter your email address. There is no cost and no subscription requirement. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-network-2026q3/newsletters?i=dd049764-c0e9-44fc-9cf7-e322042685e9&cr=time-nl-network-2026q3-v1) ## Video: What It's Like to Live in Iowa Ahead of the Caucuses [Watch (HLS stream): What It's Like to Live in Iowa Ahead of the Caucuses](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/uMLaRbZ8.m3u8) (1:36)  _Published 2016-01-29. What It's Like to Live in Iowa Ahead of the Caucuses_  by [Tessa Berenson / Des Moines, Iowa](https://time.com/author/tessa-berenson/)  ## Tessa Berenson / Des Moines, Iowa Updated: Dec 13, 2023 7:27 PM UTCPublished: Jan 30, 2016 11:57 PM UTC  by [Tessa Berenson / Des Moines, Iowa](https://time.com/author/tessa-berenson/)  ## Tessa Berenson / Des Moines, Iowa Updated: Dec 13, 2023 7:27 PM UTCPublished: Jan 30, 2016 11:57 PM UTC Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are leading the field in the final Iowa poll released before the caucuses. On the Republican side in the latest [Des Moines _Register_/Bloomberg Politics poll](http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/30/donald-trump-reclaims-lead-latest-iowa-poll/79562322/) released Saturday evening, Trump came in with 28% support, up 6% from early January. He’s followed in the Republican field by Texas Senator Ted Cruz with 23%, down 2% from early January, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio comes in third with 15%, up 3% from early January. Former neurosurgeon Ben Carson received 10% support and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul received 5%; all other Republican candidates received less than 5% support. There are reasons for Trump to feel secure at the top: his supporters are the most confident among the top three candidates, with 71% saying they’ve decided, compared with 61% for Cruz and 47% for Rubio. But there’s still some room for change. Rubio is climbing, and poll results show that he’s the top second choice pick of likely voters. And Cruz’s favorability rating has dropped by 11 points, to 65%. Trump’s biggest weaknesses are his support for eminent domain, which worried 60% of the respondents, and his previous support of abortion rights, which bothered 56% of respondents. The Democratic side remained relatively stable from the early January poll, locked in a tight race within the margin of error for former Secretary of State Clinton and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Clinton received 45% support in [the new poll](http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/30/clinton-keeps-slim-edge-over-sanders-latest-iowa-poll/79537020/), up 3%, but Sanders received 42%, up 2%. Former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley dropped 1 percentage point down to 3%. Although the race between Clinton and Sanders is tight, Clinton is wining among Democrats who said they will definitely caucus, whereas Sanders is winning among those who said they will probably caucus. And 83% of Clinton supporters said they have made up their minds. This could give Clinton an edge Monday night if Sanders can’t successfully boost turnout. Iowa polls can be [notoriously unreliable](http://time.com/4200096/iowa-polls-caucuses-2016-election-ted-cruz-donald-trump/) due to the complication of the caucus process and the unreliability of turnout. But J. Ann Selzer, who ran the poll, has conducted polling on the Iowa caucuses since 1988 and has an impressive track record. [According to Politico](http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/ann-selzer-iowa-pollster-216151), Selzer was the only pollster to predict the order of the Democratic candidates in 2004, she accurately predicted the surge of first-time caucus attendees in 2008, and she was one of the only pollsters to see the rise of Rick Santorum in 2012. This poll was conducted of 602 likely GOP caucusgoers and 602 likely Democratic caucusgoers from Jan. 26 to 29 and has a margin of error of +/- 4%. ## Transcript Marco Rubio, all over the place on immigration. Bernie Sanders didn't hesitate to say no to. [ MUSIC ] Come to America. Rand Paul I'm Bernie Sanders. Marco Rubio That's why I'm running for president. I Bernie Sanders. Doctor Ben Carson. Watching all the ads right now, I wish I could say that it's informative, it's energizing. It's crazy. It's annoying. [ LAUGH ] It's not very helpful. I probably see Easily 60 to 70 a day. Phone calls from candidates. Phone calls from the various political parties. At this point are suffering through them, as opposed to get excited to be apart of a process. The mute button is very, very helpful. I kinda fast forward through them. There's so many ads that it's difficult to tune in when I hear them. You're inundated, there's no way you can not see them. [ SOUND ] There's such excitement about being the place where the caucuses start but there is such a thing as too much. At this point, people are getting sick of the process. We're actually kinda looking forward to the New Hampshire taking over and South Carolina getting all of these ads and all these times and we turn us to A certain sense of normalcy around Iowa. How are ya? Hello, how are you? Hi nice to meet you. All right, right this way. 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