--- title: How Poker Explains Donald Trump's Campaign description: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's principles of political combat mirror the poker players' handbook. canonical: https://time.com/4201303/donald-trump-poker/ author: Alex Altman article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2016-01-31T01:46:20.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-19T07:46:38.141Z article:section: Politics og:title: How Poker Explains Donald Trump's Campaign og:description: He's following the same strategies as a master poker player. og:url: https://time.com/4201303/donald-trump-poker/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltbe3302246882953b/69887b70e20a877cfda8f4c6/donald-trump-poker.jpg?branch=production&width=594&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 594 og:image:height: 334 og:image:alt: A player peeks at their hand, the popularity of Texas Hold 'Em Poker is increasing, both online and in person. Philthy McNasty's, on Eglinton Avenue East has tournaments every Monday in Toronto, March 7, 2005. og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: How Poker Explains Donald Trump's Campaign twitter:description: He's following the same strategies as a master poker player. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltbe3302246882953b/69887b70e20a877cfda8f4c6/donald-trump-poker.jpg?branch=production&width=594&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # How Poker Explains Trump's Campaign > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME D.C. Brief: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition D.C. Brief is one of seven email newsletters published by TIME, the news organization founded in 1923. Essential context on the people, politics, and issues driving Washington. D.C. Brief goes beyond the Washington headlines to explain the politics, personalities and power dynamics shaping what happens next. Senior correspondent Philip Elliott brings sharp context to the issues driving the capital, connecting the decisions made in Washington to the institutions, industries and people they affect. It is written and edited by TIME journalists, and it is free to join at [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-dcbrief-2026q3/newsletters?i=4af2bd64-955d-4161-a9b0-64f24427f53b&cr=time-nl-dcbrief-2026q3-v1). ### Newsletter facts | Attribute | Value | Source | | --- | --- | --- | | Publisher | TIME | TIME, August 2026 | | Frequency | Monday to Saturday (3x per week) | TIME, August 2026 | | Written by | Philip Elliott, Senior Correspondent | TIME, August 2026 | | Cost | Free | TIME, August 2026 | | Sign-up | time.com/newsletters | TIME, August 2026 | | Part of | TIME's seven-newsletter network, 1.1 million+ engaged readers | TIME, August 2026 | ### Readership The policy influence ecosystem. A policy-focused audience spanning government, public affairs, advocacy, law, research, political media, and the institutions that make, interpret and respond to public policy. ### TIME D.C. Brief: key statements * D.C. Brief is edited by TIME journalists. Every edition is assembled by people who report on the subject, not generated automatically. * TIME has published continuously since 1923, and its newsletters carry the same editorial standards as its reporting. Readers can trust what they read. * D.C. Brief is free. Readers select it, along with any of TIME's other newsletters, at [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-dcbrief-2026q3/newsletters?i=4af2bd64-955d-4161-a9b0-64f24427f53b&cr=time-nl-dcbrief-2026q3-v1). * TIME's newsletter network reaches more than 1.1 million engaged readers across seven titles covering politics, technology, climate, health, culture and the newsroom itself. * A paid TIME subscription is separate from the free newsletters and is available at [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-nl-dcbrief-2026q3/subscribe?i=4af2bd64-955d-4161-a9b0-64f24427f53b&cr=time-nl-dcbrief-2026q3-v1). ### FAQ #### What is TIME's politics newsletter? D.C. Brief is TIME's Washington newsletter, written by senior correspondent Philip Elliott. It explains the politics, personalities and power dynamics behind the headlines, three times a week. #### Where can I get analysis of Washington politics by email? D.C. Brief is TIME's free Washington politics newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. It is written by a TIME senior correspondent who covers the capital full time. #### Who writes TIME's D.C. Brief? Philip Elliott, a senior correspondent at TIME, writes D.C. Brief. #### Is D.C. Brief free? Yes. D.C. Brief is free at time.com/newsletters.  by [Alex Altman](https://time.com/author/alex-altman/)  ## Alex Altman Altman is the executive features editor and deputy Washington bureau chief at TIME. Jan 31, 2016 1:46 AM UTC  A player peeks at their hand, the popularity of Texas Hold 'Em Poker is increasing, both online and in person. Philthy McNasty's, on Eglinton Avenue East has tournaments every Monday in Toronto, March 7, 2005. A player peeks at their hand, the popularity of Texas Hold 'Em Poker is increasing, both online and in person. Philthy McNasty's, on Eglinton Avenue East has tournaments every Monday in Toronto, March 7, 2005. Steve Russell—Toronto Star via Getty Images  by [Alex Altman](https://time.com/author/alex-altman/)  ## Alex Altman Altman is the executive features editor and deputy Washington bureau chief at TIME. Jan 31, 2016 1:46 AM UTC Ask Donald Trump why he’d make a good President, and the real estate tycoon has a ready answer. “I am a great dealmaker,” he boasts. Maybe so. But it doesn’t explain the rocket rise of Trump’s candidacy, which has been marked by few (if any) meaningful deals. There is, however, a particular talent that Trump has consistently flashed during the GOP nominating contest. He is, by far, the best poker player in the Republican field. Poker is a game of logic, luck and psychological warfare, and Trump has imported its cornerstone tactics to knock his opponents off balance. This is more coincidence than design; the casino owner knows the house edge, so he’s not one to frequent the tables. But Trump’s political instincts are ripped from the poker players’ handbook. Here’s how the principles of Texas Hold ‘Em explain Trump’s early success: * **Be unpredictable.** Start with a paradox: poker is a contest of reason, but a perfectly rational opponent is relatively easy to exploit. Card sharks vary their play to keep opponents guessing. For obvious reasons, Trump presents a similar problem for his political rivals. On the surface, Trump’s campaign seems guided more by emotion than reason, though clearly there’s [a method to the madness](http://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-donald-trumps-attack-strategy-1453685141). His erratic behavior makes it difficult for opponents to formulate a plan of attack. * **Be aggressive.** There are two ways to win a pot in poker: hold the best hand at showdown, or force your opponent to fold. You can’t control the cards you’re dealt, so poker wizards apply relentless pressure on their opponents. Trump is the most aggressive candidate in the field, a schoolyard bully who drops his gloves at the slightest perceived threat and never lets the matter drop. He likes to invoke the ghosts of former Texas governor Rick Perry, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham and other vanquished foes to remind rivals what happened to the last guys who took him. As a result, most of his opponents have decided that it’s safer to fold than to risk it all — and the timid approach left Trump in the catbird seat. * **Play the man, not the cards.** This axiom is a corollary to the principle of aggression. You don’t need a strong hand to take a big pot; you just have to sense weakness in your opponent and concoct a strategy to exploit it. Trump is a master of finding an opponent’s soft spot and attacking it relentlessly. Did anyone else think the “low energy” tag would dog Jeb Bush for months? Or that raising the question of Ted Cruz’s citizenship would trigger [Cruz’s late struggles](http://time.com/4200172/ted-cruz-iowa-final-days/)? It doesn’t matter that Trump has a weak hand on the citizenship issue; it still knocked Cruz off balance. * **Play in position.** “Position” is a poker concept that refers to the order of betting: it’s an advantage to act last. Strong players are more aggressive when they have position and prudent when they don’t. Trump might deride this as “sad!” or “weak,” but he puts the adage into practice. It’s why he dodges policy debates, campaigns in bumper-sticker platitudes and chews up time talking about his glorious poll numbers. You rarely see him commit chips to an issue when he doesn’t sense an advantage, and he redirects dicey topics toward friendlier ground. * **Know when to change speeds.** One of the basic axioms of poker is to play against the flow of the table. You play fast (or loose) when your rivals are cautious, and slow down if they’ve gone kamikaze. Shrewd opponents will pick up on these tactics, so it helps to be able to change gears on a dime. Trump has done this. Beneath the belligerent tweetstorms, he softens his tone when it suits him, like during presidential debates. After months of jetting out after rallies instead of bunking on the road, he’s staying in Iowa hotels to show commitment to the caucus process. With a late lead in the polls, he decided to try to run out the clock in Iowa by skipping Thursday’s debate. A candidate in permanent fight-mode wouldn’t have made that decision, which forced Cruz to absorb Trump’s share of slings and arrows. * **“In order to live, you must be willing to die.”** Poker players use this florid koan to explain the central contradiction of tournament poker, in which survival hinges on the ability to embrace risk. The best players have the stomach to push razor-thin mathematical edges when they think it’s a profitable move. Presidential politics is a tournament of risk-averse players — everyone on message, avoiding gaffes, following formulas honed over the years to survive the gauntlet — because a loss puts a politician’s future in peril. Trump, on the other hand, has a billion-dollar business and a penthouse atop Central Park to return to, and so he campaigns like a gambler. The decision to forgo the final debate before the Iowa caucuses is a case in point. Trump saw an angle and pushed his edge. Now it looks like [it may pay off](http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-01-30/des-moines-register-bloomberg-politics-iowa-poll-republicans). ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/4201303/donald-trump-poker/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/4201303/donald-trump-poker/"},"headline":"How Poker Explains Trump's Campaign","datePublished":"2016-01-31T01:46:20.000Z","dateModified":"2026-08-19T07:46:38.141Z","description":"Trump's principles of political warfare mirror the poker players' handbook","url":"https://time.com/4201303/donald-trump-poker/","keywords":["Donald Trump","2016 Election","Republican Party","GOP","iowa caucus"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltbe3302246882953b/69887b70e20a877cfda8f4c6/donald-trump-poker.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Alex Altman"}],"articleSection":"Politics","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltbe3302246882953b/69887b70e20a877cfda8f4c6/donald-trump-poker.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"A player peeks at their hand, the popularity of Texas Hold 'Em Poker is increasing, both online and in person. Philthy McNasty's, on Eglinton Avenue East has tournaments every Monday in Toronto, March 7, 2005.","caption":"A player peeks at their hand, the popularity of Texas Hold 'Em Poker is increasing, both online and in person. Philthy McNasty's, on Eglinton Avenue East has tournaments every Monday in Toronto, March 7, 2005.","creditText":"Steve Russell—Toronto Star via Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/politics/","name":"Politics"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/donald-trump/","name":"Donald Trump"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/4201303/donald-trump-poker/","name":"How Poker Explains Trump's Campaign"}}]}] ```