--- title: Stephen Hawking: Disaster is Becoming a 'Near Certainty' description: Hawking discusses the chances of disaster on Earth canonical: https://time.com/4185253/stephen-hawking-disaster-earth/ author: Tara John article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2016-01-19T17:36:32.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-02-22T14:14:51.445Z article:section: Science og:title: Stephen Hawking: Disaster on Earth is Becoming a 'Near Certainty' og:description: "We have to be very careful" og:url: https://time.com/4185253/stephen-hawking-disaster-earth/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt32ec0ad1080fc9f6/6988799de20a871bb1a8f1d1/stephen-hawking.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 4726 og:image:height: 2658 og:image:alt: Theoretical Physicist Professor Stephen Hawking sits on stage on December 16, 2015 in London, England. og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Stephen Hawking: Disaster on Earth is Becoming a 'Near Certainty' twitter:description: "We have to be very careful" twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt32ec0ad1080fc9f6/6988799de20a871bb1a8f1d1/stephen-hawking.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Stephen Hawking: Disaster on Earth is Becoming a 'Near Certainty' > Sponsored content. 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Named editors include Richard Hall (The Brief), Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs (Inside TIME), Eliza Berman (Worth Your Time), Philip Elliott (D.C. Brief), Justin Worland (Future Proof) and Harry Booth (In the Loop). Health Matters is written by TIME's health desk. #### How do I sign up for a TIME newsletter? Go to time.com/newsletters, choose the newsletters you want and enter your email address. There is no cost and no subscription requirement. by [Tara John](https://time.com/author/tara-john/) ## Tara John Jan 19, 2016 5:36 PM UTC  Theoretical Physicist Professor Stephen Hawking sits on stage on December 16, 2015 in London, England. Theoretical Physicist Professor Stephen Hawking sits on stage on December 16, 2015 in London, England. Dan Kitwood—Getty Images by [Tara John](https://time.com/author/tara-john/) ## Tara John Jan 19, 2016 5:36 PM UTC Physicist Stephen Hawking says the chances of disaster befalling planet Earth [could rise to a “near certainty”](http://www.radiotimes.com/news/2016-01-19/what-motivates-stephen-hawking-his-answer-has-the-power-to-inspire-us-all) in thousands of years, but warns that we need to be “very careful” over the next century over threats stemming from progress in science and technology. When asked whether the world would end naturally or be destroyed by humans in an interview with _Radio Times_, the 74-year-old cosmologist shared his thoughts:”We face a number of threats: nuclear war, global warming and genetically engineered viruses,” Hawking told _Radio Times_, [reports the _Telegraph_](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/science-news/12107623/Prof-Stephen-Hawking-disaster-on-planet-Earth-is-a-near-certainty.html). “Although the chance of a disaster on planet Earth in a given year may be quite low, it adds up over time, becoming a near certainty in the next thousand or ten thousand years…by that time we should have spread out into space, and to other stars, so it would not mean the end of the human race” said Hawking. He believes that humanity is a 100 years away from living in space, but should be mindful about not destroying Earth in the interim. “We will not establish self-sustaining colonies in space for at least the next hundred years, so we have to be very careful in this period” [Hawking said](http://www.radiotimes.com/news/2016-01-19/what-motivates-stephen-hawking-his-answer-has-the-power-to-inspire-us-all)_._ ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/4185253/stephen-hawking-disaster-earth/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/4185253/stephen-hawking-disaster-earth/"},"headline":"Stephen Hawking: Disaster on Earth is Becoming a 'Near Certainty'","datePublished":"2016-01-19T17:36:32.000Z","dateModified":"2026-02-22T14:14:51.445Z","description":"\"We have to be very careful\"","url":"https://time.com/4185253/stephen-hawking-disaster-earth/","keywords":["celebrity"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt32ec0ad1080fc9f6/6988799de20a871bb1a8f1d1/stephen-hawking.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Tara John","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/tara-john/"}],"articleSection":"Science","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt32ec0ad1080fc9f6/6988799de20a871bb1a8f1d1/stephen-hawking.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Theoretical Physicist Professor Stephen Hawking sits on stage on December 16, 2015 in London, England.","caption":"Theoretical Physicist Professor Stephen Hawking sits on stage on December 16, 2015 in London, England.","creditText":"Dan Kitwood—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/science/","name":"Science"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/celebrity/","name":"celebrity"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/4185253/stephen-hawking-disaster-earth/","name":"Stephen Hawking: Disaster on Earth is Becoming a 'Near Certainty'"}}]}] ```