Hillary Clinton’s Risky Bet

6 minute read

Six Republican candidates joined Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott on stage Saturday to discuss an often-overlooked issue: poverty. For mainstream GOPers, the substantive discussion of the root causes of poverty, as well as education and drug policies, was a refreshing break from the vitriol of the campaign trail and a tantalizing glimpse of what might have been had Donald Trump not entered the presidential race. Trump, along with Ted Cruz, skipped the forum to campaign in Iowa leaving Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, and John Kasich to explore and debate one issue in depth. For Ryan, it was an effort to steer the GOP away from partisanship and toward a unified policy vision for the country. “Too often what we’ve seen in the debates is the selling of fear,” Scott said after the forum. “Today we overcame that.” But the focus was short-lived, as candidates have quickly returned to political reality, attacking their rivals and preparing for yet another debate this Thursday in Charleston.

With Cruz and Trump consolidating support in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively, the four leading candidates who are more friendly to the GOP establishment—Bush, Christie, Kasich and Rubio—are splitting the vote, potentially sinking each other’s chances of winning. If no clear alternative emerges by New Hampshire, many Republicans wonder whether it will be too late to mount an effective mainstream challenger to the two outsider candidates. It’s an eventuality Cruz is betting on, as he’s turning his focus to South Carolina in order to continue his expected momentum after Iowa, while Trump is escalating his questioning of Cruz’s eligibility to be president as he looks to fight his way back on top in the Hawkeye State.

The Iowa caucuses are designed as much to equalize challengers as they are to winnow out massive fields of candidates, a reality that may deprive Hillary Clinton of an obvious win in the state. Aides to Clinton are working to right-size expectations that the delegate process will give Bernie Sanders a nearly identical total by the end of the night, even if Clinton beats him in the raw vote of caucus-goers as expected. Meanwhile, Clinton is making a pragmatic pitch to Democrats that she is the only candidate who can defeat Republicans in November.

Republican Party chairman Reince Priebus calls Trump “varsity” and says he’d be an honest broker in the unlikely event there’s a multi-balloted convention. Lena Dunham stumps for Clinton. And Planned Parenthood’s president doesn’t want to talk about Bill Clinton’s sexual history.

Here are your must-reads:

Must Reads

Paul Ryan Pushes Republicans to Make Poverty an Issue in 2016
The Speaker of the House makes his mark on the presidential race [TIME]

Jeb! Campaigns as a Bush! in New Hampshire
TIME’s Philip Elliott reports from the Granite State

Planned Parenthood President Doesn’t Want To Talk About Bill Clinton’s Sexual History
Cecile Richards stays on message, TIME’s Sam Frizell reports

Iowa Caucus Math Gives Sanders A Boost, Poses Expectations Challenge For Clinton Campaign
The rules matter on Election Day [TIME]

Sanders Outspends Clinton on Ads to Little Effect
Hillary Clinton’s Democratic rival is crushing the TV airwaves, but his poll numbers aren’t budging much [Center for Public Integrity]

Republican Party Chairman Calls Donald Trump ‘Varsity’
Reince Priebus also promises to be a honest broker at convention [TIME]

Clinton Makes Risky Bet on Electability in New Hampshire
A pitch for pragmatism, not passion. TIME’s Sam Frizell reports

Sound Off

“P.T. Barnum. Look, people call you names. We need P.T. Barnum, a little bit, because we have to build up the image of our country. We have to be a cheerleader for our country. We don’t have a cheerleader.” — Donald Trump on NBC’s “Meet the Press”

“I think Sean Penn is not someone I spend a lot of time thinking about. I didn’t even know he was still around. I think he made movies a long time ago or something. I don’t — he interviewed El Chapo, we I’ll guess use the interview that he had in order to find him. That’s — the Mexicans did, that’s fantastic. I hope they extradite El Chapo to the United States. And, you know, if one of these American actors who have benefited from the greatness of this country, who have made money from our free enterprise system, want to go fawn all over a criminal and a drug trafficker in their interviews they have a constitutional right to do it. I find it grotesque.” — Marco Rubio on ABC’s “This Week”

Bits and Bites

Lena Dunham Brings Hillary Clinton Millennial Cred in New Hampshire [TIME]

Joe Klein: Trump — The Incoherent Demagogue [TIME]

Top White House Officials Talk Encryption in Silicon Valley [TIME]

Muslim Woman Gets Kicked Out of Trump Rally — for Protesting Silently [Washington Post]

Elizabeth Warren Says a Female President Would Be A Role Model for Men [TIME]

Meet the 12-Year-Old Who Will Join the First Lady at the State of the Union [TIME]

White House Says Gun Op-Ed Not Meant as 2016 Endorsement [TIME]

Watch 7 Years of Obama’s State of the Union Addresses [TIME]

The State of the Union Address as a Wes Anderson Film [CNN]

Obama, GOP Congress Near End of Long, Ugly Relationship [Politico]

Donald Trump Says He Got Union Leader Removed as GOP Debate Sponsor [CNN]

“New Hampshire” Episode 1: What It Takes In The Granite State [Huffington Post]

Obama Chief: President Has Met Privately with Sanders [Politico]

Hillary Clinton Attacks Bernie Sanders Over Gun Control [New York Times]

Donald Trump Asks a Reno Audience to Weigh in on Ted Cruz’s Eligibility [Washington Post]

You Want to Give to Ted Cruz’s Super PAC? First Figure Out Which One [Washington Post]

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