--- title: Clinton Campaign Sees Iowa Caucus Math Favors Bernie Sanders description: The rules matter on Election Day canonical: https://time.com/4172793/hillary-clinton-iowa-caucus-bernie-sanders/ author: Zeke Miller article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2016-01-08T18:16:48.000Z article:modified_time: 2023-12-13T20:52:11.000Z article:section: Politics og:title: Clinton Campaign Sees Iowa Caucus Math Favors Bernie Sanders og:description: The rules matter on Election Day og:url: https://time.com/4172793/hillary-clinton-iowa-caucus-bernie-sanders/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltc80909bdc414f855/698878353c163951b945b796/hillary-clinton-iowa.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 3500 og:image:height: 1969 og:image:alt: Hillary Rodham Clinton og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Clinton Campaign Sees Iowa Caucus Math Favors Bernie Sanders twitter:description: The rules matter on Election Day twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltc80909bdc414f855/698878353c163951b945b796/hillary-clinton-iowa.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Iowa Caucus Math Gives Sanders A Boost, Poses Expectations Challenge For Clinton Campaign > Sponsored content. 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Named editors include Richard Hall (The Brief), Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs (Inside TIME), Eliza Berman (Worth Your Time), Philip Elliott (D.C. Brief), Justin Worland (Future Proof) and Harry Booth (In the Loop). Health Matters is written by TIME's health desk. #### How do I sign up for a TIME newsletter? Go to time.com/newsletters, choose the newsletters you want and enter your email address. There is no cost and no subscription requirement. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-network-2026q3/newsletters?i=5c9558af-35d0-4d50-a930-9205cc9b8fff&cr=time-nl-network-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Hillary Clinton's Top 10 Political Moments [Watch (HLS stream): Hillary Clinton's Top 10 Political Moments](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/L3I0gpwt.m3u8) (1:49)  _Published 2015-04-09. Watch the top 10 moments from Hillary Clinton's career in politics._ by [Zeke Miller](https://time.com/author/zeke-j-miller/) ## Zeke Miller Updated: Dec 13, 2023 8:52 PM UTCPublished: Jan 8, 2016 6:16 PM UTC  Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton listens to a question from the media following an organizing event at the University of Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton listens to a question from the media following an organizing event at the University of Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls. Scott Morgan—AP by [Zeke Miller](https://time.com/author/zeke-j-miller/) ## Zeke Miller Updated: Dec 13, 2023 8:52 PM UTCPublished: Jan 8, 2016 6:16 PM UTC The Iowa caucuses are frequently championed as an opportunity to winnow the presidential campaign field, and they likely will do that for the Republicans this year. But their other stated purpose—to give outsider candidates a chance at legitimacy—could prove even more significant for Democrats. The reason is the byzantine caucus process. [Hillary Clinton](http://time.com/tag/hillary-clinton/) leads [Bernie Sanders](http://time.com/tag/bernie-sanders/) by 10 points or more in recent polling in the state, but caucus rules are likely to yield an outcome far closer than that, no matter how hard Clinton organizes or how well she performs on Feb. 1. The complicated rules of the caucus process are inherently tilted toward equalizing the strength of candidates, especially in a two person race. Only the number of delegates awarded in each precinct will be published on caucus night, which means there will be no official record of the candidate’s share of the voters at the caucuses—a figure that will likely more closely mirror the pre-caucus polls. As a result, Clinton will be at the mercy of a process little changed over generations, in which candidates can tie the delegate count, even if Clinton has far more support inside the room. If Sanders surprises with an upset, by bringing more caucus goers out, he will face a similar result, which looks more like a draw. Here’s how it works: Each of 1,681 precincts in the state is assigned a delegate count based on its relative strength of Democratic Party within that part of the state. To earn delegates, candidates are required to meet a threshold—25% in two-delegate precincts to 15% in precincts with four or more delegates—in order to earn any delegates from each precinct. (The vast majority of precincts have four or more delegates, requiring the 15% threshold.) For the large number of precincts with an even number of delegates, however, Clinton would have to win by large majorities in order to net more total delegates than Sanders. In odd-numbered-delegate precincts, barring a blowout, Sanders would still pick up several delegates. Aware of this math, the Clinton campaign is quietly working to right-size expectations for Iowa, where they have more than 80 staffers on the ground and have devoted countless hours and millions of dollars in hopes of avoiding a repeat of Barack Obama’s 2008 upset. The campaign is telling reporters and Democratic operatives that it believes a win by just a single delegates is a victory, even though the result would fall short of the polling spread. ## Transcript [00:00] You know, I'm not [00:04] sittin' here some little woman standing here by my man [00:06] like Tammy Wynette. I'm sittin' here because I love [00:09] him, and I respect him. Now is our chance [00:13] to beat the historical odds, and give the American [00:16] people the health security they need. If there is one [00:19] message that echoes forth from this. Let [00:24] it be that human rights are women's rights and [00:28] women's rights are human rights once and for all. [00:33] The great story here for anybody willing to find it and [00:36] write about it and explain it is this vast right- wing [00:40] conspiracy that has been conspiring. Against my [00:43] husband since the day he announced for president. I [00:45] would be happy to, when you give me the signed [00:47] letters. Well, right here. Right here. When you give me. [00:49] Right here. Sign it right now. We'll shake. We'll shake [00:50] on this, Ray. No, no, I want your signature, cause I [00:53] think that everybody wants to see you signing [00:55] something that you said you were for. You know, I have [00:58] so many opportunities from this country. I just don't [01:01] wanna see us fall backwards. Although we weren't able [01:03] to shatter that [01:08] highest, hardest glass ceiling this time, thanks to you, [01:12] it's got about 18 million cracks in it. The [01:19] battle to stop Al Qaeda and its affiliates. Does [01:23] not end with one death. What difference, at [01:27] this point, does it make? It is our job to figure out what [01:31] happened and do everything we can to prevent it from [01:34] ever happening again, Senator. I took the [01:36] unprecedented step of asking that the state [01:39] department make all my work- related emails, [01:43] [ MUSIC ] Public for everyone to see. 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