--- title: Clinton Campaign Sees Iowa Caucus Math Favors Bernie Sanders description: The rules matter on Election Day canonical: https://time.com/4172793/hillary-clinton-iowa-caucus-bernie-sanders/ author: Zeke Miller article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2016-01-08T18:16:48.000Z article:modified_time: 2023-12-13T20:52:11.000Z article:section: Politics og:title: Clinton Campaign Sees Iowa Caucus Math Favors Bernie Sanders og:description: The rules matter on Election Day og:url: https://time.com/4172793/hillary-clinton-iowa-caucus-bernie-sanders/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltc80909bdc414f855/698878353c163951b945b796/hillary-clinton-iowa.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 3500 og:image:height: 1969 og:image:alt: Hillary Rodham Clinton og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Clinton Campaign Sees Iowa Caucus Math Favors Bernie Sanders twitter:description: The rules matter on Election Day twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltc80909bdc414f855/698878353c163951b945b796/hillary-clinton-iowa.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Iowa Caucus Math Gives Sanders A Boost, Poses Expectations Challenge For Clinton Campaign > Sponsored content. 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Brief is TIME's Washington newsletter, written by senior correspondent Philip Elliott. It explains the politics, personalities and power dynamics behind the headlines, three times a week. It reaches 85,000 subscribers with a 37.0% open rate as of August 2026. #### Where can I get analysis of Washington politics by email? D.C. Brief is TIME's free Washington politics newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. It is written by a TIME senior correspondent who covers the capital full time. #### Who writes TIME's D.C. Brief? Philip Elliott, a senior correspondent at TIME, writes D.C. Brief. #### Is D.C. Brief free? Yes. D.C. Brief is free at time.com/newsletters. ## Video: Hillary Clinton's Top 10 Political Moments [Watch (HLS stream): Hillary Clinton's Top 10 Political Moments](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/L3I0gpwt.m3u8) (1:49)  _Published 2015-04-09. Watch the top 10 moments from Hillary Clinton's career in politics._ by [Zeke Miller](https://time.com/author/zeke-j-miller/) ## Zeke Miller Updated: Dec 13, 2023 8:52 PM UTCPublished: Jan 8, 2016 6:16 PM UTC  Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton listens to a question from the media following an organizing event at the University of Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton listens to a question from the media following an organizing event at the University of Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls. Scott Morgan—AP by [Zeke Miller](https://time.com/author/zeke-j-miller/) ## Zeke Miller Updated: Dec 13, 2023 8:52 PM UTCPublished: Jan 8, 2016 6:16 PM UTC The Iowa caucuses are frequently championed as an opportunity to winnow the presidential campaign field, and they likely will do that for the Republicans this year. But their other stated purpose—to give outsider candidates a chance at legitimacy—could prove even more significant for Democrats. The reason is the byzantine caucus process. [Hillary Clinton](http://time.com/tag/hillary-clinton/) leads [Bernie Sanders](http://time.com/tag/bernie-sanders/) by 10 points or more in recent polling in the state, but caucus rules are likely to yield an outcome far closer than that, no matter how hard Clinton organizes or how well she performs on Feb. 1. The complicated rules of the caucus process are inherently tilted toward equalizing the strength of candidates, especially in a two person race. Only the number of delegates awarded in each precinct will be published on caucus night, which means there will be no official record of the candidate’s share of the voters at the caucuses—a figure that will likely more closely mirror the pre-caucus polls. As a result, Clinton will be at the mercy of a process little changed over generations, in which candidates can tie the delegate count, even if Clinton has far more support inside the room. If Sanders surprises with an upset, by bringing more caucus goers out, he will face a similar result, which looks more like a draw. Here’s how it works: Each of 1,681 precincts in the state is assigned a delegate count based on its relative strength of Democratic Party within that part of the state. To earn delegates, candidates are required to meet a threshold—25% in two-delegate precincts to 15% in precincts with four or more delegates—in order to earn any delegates from each precinct. (The vast majority of precincts have four or more delegates, requiring the 15% threshold.) For the large number of precincts with an even number of delegates, however, Clinton would have to win by large majorities in order to net more total delegates than Sanders. In odd-numbered-delegate precincts, barring a blowout, Sanders would still pick up several delegates. Aware of this math, the Clinton campaign is quietly working to right-size expectations for Iowa, where they have more than 80 staffers on the ground and have devoted countless hours and millions of dollars in hopes of avoiding a repeat of Barack Obama’s 2008 upset. The campaign is telling reporters and Democratic operatives that it believes a win by just a single delegates is a victory, even though the result would fall short of the polling spread. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/4172793/hillary-clinton-iowa-caucus-bernie-sanders/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/4172793/hillary-clinton-iowa-caucus-bernie-sanders/"},"headline":"Iowa Caucus Math Gives Sanders A Boost, Poses Expectations Challenge For Clinton Campaign","datePublished":"2016-01-08T18:16:48.000Z","dateModified":"2023-12-13T20:52:11.000Z","description":"The rules matter on Election Day","url":"https://time.com/4172793/hillary-clinton-iowa-caucus-bernie-sanders/","keywords":["Hillary Clinton","democrats","2016 Election","Iowa","Bernie Sanders"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltc80909bdc414f855/698878353c163951b945b796/hillary-clinton-iowa.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Zeke Miller","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/zeke-j-miller/"}],"articleSection":"Politics","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltc80909bdc414f855/698878353c163951b945b796/hillary-clinton-iowa.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","caption":"Hillary Rodham Clinton","creditText":"Scott Morgan—AP","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/politics/","name":"Politics"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/4172793/hillary-clinton-iowa-caucus-bernie-sanders/","name":"Iowa Caucus Math Gives Sanders A Boost, Poses Expectations Challenge For Clinton Campaign"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"Hillary Clinton's Top 10 Political Moments","description":"Watch the top 10 moments from Hillary Clinton's career in politics.","thumbnailUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/L3I0gpwt/poster.jpg?width=720","uploadDate":"2015-04-09T19:18:36.000Z","contentUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/L3I0gpwt.m3u8","embedUrl":"https://time.com/4172793/hillary-clinton-iowa-caucus-bernie-sanders/","duration":"PT1M49S","potentialAction":{"@type":"SeekToAction","target":"https://time.com/4172793/hillary-clinton-iowa-caucus-bernie-sanders/?jw_start={seek_to_second_number}","startOffset-input":"required name=seek_to_second_number"}}] ```