--- description: Experts say pollution will replace smoking as the primary cause of the disease, which already kills 600,000 Chinese annually title: China: Over 800,000 Lung Cancer Patients a Year by 2020 image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt608363361c9907db/6988732e8e06013b4e4638ba/gettyimages-498357044.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  * [World](/section/world/) ## World Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close # China to Have Over 800,000 Lung Cancer Patients a Year by 2020, State Media Says by [Nash Jenkins](/author/p-nash-jenkins/) ## Nash Jenkins Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Dec 1, 2015 9:14 AM CUT  A Chinese man smokes as he shields himself under an umbrella from the snow during a snowfall on November 22, 2014 outside the Forbidden City in Beijing, China. A Chinese man smokes as he shields himself under an umbrella from the snow during a snowfall on November 22, 2014 outside the Forbidden City in Beijing, China.Kevin Frayer—Getty Images by [Nash Jenkins](/author/p-nash-jenkins/) ## Nash Jenkins Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Dec 1, 2015 9:14 AM CUT China will likely see an [increase](http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2015-12/01/content%5F22593831.htm "undefined") in the prevalence of lung cancer among its population over the next five years, the state-run _China Daily_ reports. Medical experts told the paper that over 800,000 annual diagnoses and 700,000 annual deaths can be expected by 2020. China already has more lung-cancer diagnoses and fatalities than any other in the world, with 600,000 dying of the disease every year. Around 700,000 Chinese have been diagnosed with it this year. The problem has been mounting in recent years as the country’s air pollution goes largely unmitigated. China remains the world’s largest consumer of tobacco products — a study earlier this year estimated that 1 in3 of all young Chinese men will [die](http://time.com/4068445/china-smoking-study-deaths/ "undefined") of tobacco-related illnesses — though experts say pollution will replace smoking as the primary cause of lung cancer. “The rapid increase of the disease will last for at least 20 years,” Zhi Xiuyi, who heads the Lung Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment Center at Capital Medical University in Beijing, told _China Daily_. ### See the Real Side of China's Great Wall  A road builder raises a red flag on a hillside in Jinchuan Valley, Gansu Province, China. Fan Shi San  The Great Wall is split by national highway in Yanchi, Ningxia Province, northwestern China. Fan Shi San  Jinta, Gansu Province, China. Fan Shi San  Gaotai, Gansu Province, China. Fan Shi San  A Great Wall replica with political slogans in Suoyang, Gansu Province, China. Fan Shi San  An abandoned theater in Polubao, Shanxi Province, China. Fan Shi San  Jiuquan, Gansu Province, China. Fan Shi San  Changyukou, Hebei Province, China. Fan Shi San  A factory complex between Ningxia and Gansu Province, China. Fan Shi San  A gravesite near Sanguankou Great Wall in Ningxia Province, China. Fan Shi San  Guazhou, Gansu Province, China. Fan Shi San  A police statue in Gansu Province, China. Fan Shi San  Mutianyu Great Wall, Beijing. Fan Shi San  Shanhaiguan, Hebei Province, China Fan Shi San ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/4130476/china-smoking-pollution-lung-cancer/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/4130476/china-smoking-pollution-lung-cancer/"},"headline":"China to Have Over 800,000 Lung Cancer Patients a Year by 2020, State Media Says","datePublished":"2015-12-01T09:14:49.000Z","dateModified":"2026-05-11T05:00:50.228Z","description":"Air pollution is expected to replace smoking as the disease's primary cause","url":"https://time.com/4130476/china-smoking-pollution-lung-cancer/","keywords":["Smoking","Cigarettes","Cancer","China","Disease","Air Pollution","health","lung cancer"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt608363361c9907db/6988732e8e06013b4e4638ba/gettyimages-498357044.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Nash Jenkins","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/p-nash-jenkins/"}],"articleSection":"World","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt608363361c9907db/6988732e8e06013b4e4638ba/gettyimages-498357044.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"China Daily Life - Weather","caption":"China Daily Life - Weather","creditText":"Kevin Frayer—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/world/","name":"World"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/4130476/china-smoking-pollution-lung-cancer/","name":"China to Have Over 800,000 Lung Cancer Patients a Year by 2020, State Media Says"}}]}] ```