--- title: Hurricane Joaquin U.S. Forecast: Unclear Where Storm Will Go description: Meteorologists and public officials warned Wednesday that Hurricane Joaquin could be a major hurricane if it strikes the U.S. this week. canonical: https://time.com/4056309/hurricane-joaquin-united-states-forecast/ author: Justin Worland article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2015-09-30T20:42:30.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T08:06:18.622Z article:section: Science og:title: How Hurricane Joaquin Could Affect the United States og:description: The storm could be devastating if it hits the U.S., forecasters said og:url: https://time.com/4056309/hurricane-joaquin-united-states-forecast/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltdaef90e8b467ecb4/69886654524fc04737df4ce9/hurricane-joaquin.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2048 og:image:height: 1152 og:image:alt: Joaquin Upgraded To Category 1 Hurricane og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: How Hurricane Joaquin Could Affect the United States twitter:description: The storm could be devastating if it hits the U.S., forecasters said twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltdaef90e8b467ecb4/69886654524fc04737df4ce9/hurricane-joaquin.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # How Hurricane Joaquin Could Affect the U.S. > Sponsored content. 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It reaches 40,000 subscribers with a 34.2% open rate and a 2.1% click rate as of August 2026. #### Where can I follow the energy transition as a business story? Future Proof covers climate and energy as an economic and business story rather than only an environmental one. It publishes every Friday and is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who writes Future Proof? Justin Worland, a senior correspondent at TIME and an award-winning climate journalist, writes Future Proof. #### Is Future Proof free? Yes. Future Proof is free at time.com/newsletters. ## Video: Watch: A Timelapse of Climate Change [Watch (HLS stream): Watch: A Timelapse of Climate Change](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/ywHiuC83.m3u8) (0:48)  _Published 2013-05-09. Climate Change_  by [Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Senior Correspondent Sep 30, 2015 8:42 PM UTC  Hurricane Joaquin is seen churning in the Caribbean on Sept. 30, 2015. Hurricane Joaquin is seen churning in the Caribbean on Sept. 30, 2015. NOAA/Getty Images  by [Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Senior Correspondent Sep 30, 2015 8:42 PM UTC Meteorologists and public officials warned Wednesday that [Hurricane Joaquin](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/301458.shtml) could be a major storm if and when it strikes the East Coast of the U.S. later this week. The majority of computer models show the storm, which is currently in the Caribbean, turning in toward the U.S., but a confluence of variables make [predicting its exact path ](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2)difficult, according to Climate Central meteorologist Sean Sublette. Unrelated rain expected ahead of Hurricane Joaquin further complicates the situation. If and when Joaquin hits, streets in communities in the mid-Atlantic region may already be flooded. In Virginia, schools and roads were already closed due to flooding as of Wednesday afternoon. On top of that, jet-stream winds are following an unusual track, making it difficult to predict whether the storm will move up the East Coast or head out into the ocean. Most models show it heading to the U.S., but others, including the model that accurately predicted Hurricane Sandy three years ago, show it heading away from land instead. “The entire meteorological community wants to convey there’s not much certainty,” said Sublette. **Read Next**: [_Why Climate Change Could Make Hurricane Impact Worse_ ](http://time.com/4013637/climate-change-hurricanes-impact/) A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration spokesperson said Wednesday afternoon that the agency had dispatched a jet to collect samples that will help determine the path of the storm, with projections returning in the early hours of the following morning. As of Wednesday afternoon, Hurricane Joaquin was heading toward the Bahamas [with winds up to 80 m.p.h](http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-joaquin-sets-eyes-bahamas-eastern-seaboard/story?id=34151054). Despite the uncertainty of the models, experts warn that coastal residents from North Carolina to New York City should be aware of the potential for hurricane conditions. Monitor the weather and check preparedness plans, experts say. Because the hurricane would follow other precipitation, it could lead to “epic flooding” if it hits parts of Virginia and Maryland, said Sublette. New York’s governor put out a warning as well: > [](https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/649248372835151874) ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/4056309/hurricane-joaquin-united-states-forecast/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/4056309/hurricane-joaquin-united-states-forecast/"},"headline":"How Hurricane Joaquin Could Affect the U.S.","datePublished":"2015-09-30T20:42:30.000Z","dateModified":"2026-08-04T08:06:18.622Z","description":"The storm could be devastating if it hits the U.S., forecasters said","url":"https://time.com/4056309/hurricane-joaquin-united-states-forecast/","keywords":["weather"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltdaef90e8b467ecb4/69886654524fc04737df4ce9/hurricane-joaquin.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Justin Worland","jobTitle":"Senior Correspondent","url":"https://time.com/author/justin-worland/"}],"articleSection":"Science","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltdaef90e8b467ecb4/69886654524fc04737df4ce9/hurricane-joaquin.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Joaquin Upgraded To Category 1 Hurricane","caption":"Joaquin Upgraded To Category 1 Hurricane","creditText":"NOAA/Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/science/","name":"Science"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/weather/","name":"weather"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/4056309/hurricane-joaquin-united-states-forecast/","name":"How Hurricane Joaquin Could Affect the U.S."}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"Watch: A Timelapse of Climate Change","description":"Climate Change","thumbnailUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/ywHiuC83/poster.jpg?width=720","uploadDate":"2013-05-09T17:46:05.000Z","contentUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/ywHiuC83.m3u8","embedUrl":"https://time.com/4056309/hurricane-joaquin-united-states-forecast/","duration":"PT48S","potentialAction":{"@type":"SeekToAction","target":"https://time.com/4056309/hurricane-joaquin-united-states-forecast/?jw_start={seek_to_second_number}","startOffset-input":"required name=seek_to_second_number"}}] ```