--- title: El Niño California Drought: Storms Could Be Strongest Ever description: El Niño has strengthened and may be among the biggest occurrence of the climate phenomenon ever recorded, NOAA said Thursday. canonical: https://time.com/3996227/el-nino-forecast/ author: Justin Worland article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2015-08-13T20:34:52.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:58:11.105Z article:section: Science og:title: What the Strongest El Nino on Record Will do to the Planet og:description: Hotter temperatures and rain in California og:url: https://time.com/3996227/el-nino-forecast/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd53d149ac3f7839f/69885f1ee53aba54764df109/el-nic3b1o-drought.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 3759 og:image:height: 2114 og:image:alt: El Niño drought og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: What the Strongest El Nino on Record Will do to the Planet twitter:description: Hotter temperatures and rain in California twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd53d149ac3f7839f/69885f1ee53aba54764df109/el-nic3b1o-drought.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # This Year's El Niño Could Be the Strongest Ever Recorded > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Future Proof: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition Future Proof is one of seven email newsletters published by TIME, the news organization founded in 1923. Making sense of the climate and energy economy. Future Proof examines the forces transforming energy and climate, and what those changes mean for business, technology, policy and the global economy. Senior correspondent Justin Worland goes beyond traditional climate coverage to connect the energy transition to the bigger decisions reshaping companies, markets and society. 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Future Proof is TIME's weekly climate and energy newsletter, written by senior correspondent Justin Worland. It connects the energy transition to the decisions reshaping business, technology, policy and markets. #### Where can I follow the energy transition as a business story? Future Proof covers climate and energy as an economic and business story rather than only an environmental one. It publishes every Friday and is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who writes Future Proof? Justin Worland, a senior correspondent at TIME and an award-winning climate journalist, writes Future Proof. #### Is Future Proof free? Yes. Future Proof is free at time.com/newsletters. ## Video: Is Climate Change Causing Extreme Weather? [Watch (HLS stream): Is Climate Change Causing Extreme Weather?](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/LQufbOt9.m3u8) (2:04)  _Published 2013-11-11. Is the frequency of extreme weather events a sign that global warming is gaining pace and exceeding predictions? Climate scientist Bill Patzert explains._  by [Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Senior Correspondent Aug 13, 2015 8:34 PM UTC  cracked dry dam bed after drought, lake burrendong, nsw, australia cracked dry dam bed after drought, lake burrendong, nsw, australia Getty Images  by [Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Senior Correspondent Aug 13, 2015 8:34 PM UTC The world could be headed for one of the strongest El Niños in recorded history, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) [said](http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis%5Fmonitoring/enso%5Fadvisory/ensodisc.pdf) Thursday. A strong El Niño event would disrupt weather patterns across the globe, boost global temperatures—and help relieve California’s historic drought. El Niño, a climate phenomenon triggered by unusually warm temperatures along the equatorial Pacific, affects weather across the planet. The warmer Pacific surface temperatures are above the norm, the more significant forecasters predict El Niño will be. This year, climate forecasters observed sea surface temperatures more than 3.6°F (2°C) above average across the east central Pacific Ocean. That level of heat has only been recorded three times in the last 65 years, and all three occurrences matched with strong El Niño events. “Since March above normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific have continued to increase,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, on a conference call for journalists. “We’re predicting this El Niño could be among the strongest El Niños in the historical record.” “This definitely has the potential of being the Godzilla El Niño,” added Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge. The rise in Pacific temperatures during El Niño changes the way air circulates across the globe, impacting precipitation patterns and climate. Globally, El Niño also increases temperatures, making it even more likely that next year will break records as the warmest ever. The 1997-1998 El Niño contributed to making 1998 one of the warmest years on record. That year is the only year before 2000 to rank in the top 10 warmest. El Niño will likely contribute to above average precipitation across much of the southern United States, all the way from California to Florida. Areas surrounding the northern Rocky Mountains, the Great Lakes and Western Alaska will likely receive below average precipitation. El Niño has already played a part in a relatively weak Atlantic hurricane season by spreading storms over a larger area, and thereby decreasing the chance they develop into hurricanes. NOAA models suggest that El Niño will peak in fall 2015 and continue into the spring of 2016. **Read More** [Strong El Niño Set to Bring California Drought Relief](http://time.com/3952081/el-nino-california-drought-noaa/?iid=time%5Fspeed) For California, El Niño will likely bring welcome relief from a years-long drought. The 1997 El Niño event broke precipitations record in the state and led to severe flooding. But while the area will almost certainly receive increased rainfall, experts say the state will still have a way to go to alleviate drought even with a strong El Niño. For one, California’s drought has lasted four long years—one year of heavy rainfall won’t make up for that deficit. (A recent NASA report [indicated](http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4673) that California’s rain debt is equivalent to one full year of average precipitation.) El Niño would need to generate up to 3 times the average rainfall to balance out the drought. In California’s wettest year on record, California received only 1.9 times what it gets in rain during an average year, according to Kevin Werner, NOAA director of western region climate services. Nor will it help that the climate event will likely only increase precipitation in the southern part of the state, far away from the mountain tops and reservoirs that provide most of California’s water. “Just because something is favored, it doesn’t guarantee it will happen,” said Halpert. “More importantly for California…one season of additional rain and snowfall is unlikely to erase four years of drought.” _Read next:_ [_Searching Questions Asked in the Aftermath of the Tianjin Blasts_](http://time.com/3997727/tianjin-blast-china-ruihai-warehouse-chemicals-zoning/?iid=time%5Freadnext) [_Download TIME’s mobile app for iOS to have your world explained wherever you go_](https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/time-mobile/id328218429) ## Transcript [ MUSIC ] Extreme weather was more frequent in recent years. Is it a sign that global warming is gaining pace and exceeding predictions? Now, has extreme weather been more frequent in recent years? The evidence is definitely to the contrary. The United States has always had extreme weather. We look back on our weather history. It's been punishing. Floods, droughts, tornadoes, hurricanes, great forest fires. Is global warming happening? No doubt about it. We're living in a warmer world. We're living in a melting world, sea levels are rising. Now, direct evidence of the foot print or the finger print of global warming, we're seeing more frequent, more intense and longer lasting heat waves. As far as hurricanes, tornadoes, forest fires, floods and drought; the evidence is definitely not in. The consensus among almost all scientists is, is that it's a small finger print, not a large foot print. But what is true is that in this country, in the United States, we live in many areas with great risk to drought, [ NOISE ] to tornadoes, to hurricanes. And so part of the dialog is not only extreme weather and global warming but is the amount of risk we can tolerate. Now, looking to the future, global change, global warming it definitely is accelerating and it will have an impact on extreme weather. But at this point, not much. 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