--- title: How the Research Community Is Addressing the 'Reproducibility Crisis' description: A big problem in the scientific community is that much of what winds up in scientific journals isn't replicable, for various reasons canonical: https://time.com/3978589/research-reproducibility-crisis/ author: TIME article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2015-08-02T18:30:38.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:38:17.491Z article:section: Ideas og:title: How the Research Community Is Addressing the 'Reproducibility Crisis' og:description: A big problem in the scientific community is that much of what winds up in scientific journals isn't replicable, for various reasons og:url: https://time.com/3978589/research-reproducibility-crisis/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt01cd6c285e823f1a/69885d2b5f570f1c68b1caf9/sample-science-lab.jpg?branch=production&width=360&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 360 og:image:height: 203 og:image:alt: sample-science-lab og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: How the Research Community Is Addressing the 'Reproducibility Crisis' twitter:description: A big problem in the scientific community is that much of what winds up in scientific journals isn't replicable, for various reasons twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt01cd6c285e823f1a/69885d2b5f570f1c68b1caf9/sample-science-lab.jpg?branch=production&width=360&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # How the Research Community Is Addressing the 'Reproducibility Crisis' > Sponsored content. 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A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-inside-2026q3/newsletters?i=7fb7f2ea-64bd-4ce6-9a82-5ec40c24fa07&cr=time-nl-inside-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Zion's Story - First Bilateral Hand Transplant in a Child [Watch (HLS stream): Zion's Story - First Bilateral Hand Transplant in a Child](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/WjIh5WvU.m3u8) (13:11)  _Published 2015-07-28. Zion's Story - First Bilateral Hand Transplant in a Child_ by [Ivan Oransky, New York University / The Conversation](https://time.com/author/ivan-oransky/) ## Ivan Oransky, New York University / The Conversation Aug 2, 2015 6:30 PM UTC  Pipetting sample into multi well tray Pipetting sample into multi well tray Getty Images by [Ivan Oransky, New York University / The Conversation](https://time.com/author/ivan-oransky/) ## Ivan Oransky, New York University / The Conversation Aug 2, 2015 6:30 PM UTC What if I told you that half of the studies published in scientific journals today – the ones upon which news coverage of medical advances is often based – won’t hold up under scrutiny? You might say I had gone mad. No one would ever tolerate that kind of waste in a field as important – and expensive, to the tune of roughly [US$30 billion in federal spending per year](http://officeofbudget.od.nih.gov/pdfs/FY15/FY2015%5FOverview.pdf) – as biomedical research, right? After all, this is the crucial work that hunts for explanations for diseases so they can better be treated or even cured. Wrong. The rate of what is referred to as “irreproducible research” – more on what that means in a moment – exceeds 50%, [according to a recent paper](http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1002165). Some [estimates are even higher](http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124). In one analysis, just [11% of preclinical cancer research studies could be confirmed](http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/483531a). That means that an awful lot of “promising” results aren’t very promising at all, and that a lot of researchers who could be solving critical problems based on previously published work end up just spinning their wheels. So what gives? And how can we fix this problem? **What worms tell us about reproducibility** Although definitions of reproducibility and replication vary somewhat, for a study to be reproducible, another researcher needs to be able to replicate it, meaning use the same data and analysis to come to the same conclusions. There are lots of reasons why a study may not pass the replication test, from flat-out errors to a failure to adequately describe the methodology used. A researcher may have forgotten about a step in the process when he wrote up the methodology, for example, counted data in the wrong category, or written the wrong code for her statistics program. [Faking results](https://theconversation.com/clearing-the-air-why-more-retractions-are-good-for-science-6008) is another reason, but it’s not nearly as common as others. Out-and-out fraud like that, or suspected fraud, is the reason for a bit [fewer than half of the 400-plus retractions per year](http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1212247109). But there are something like two million papers published annually, so the vast majority of studies containing irreproducible data are never retracted. And most scientists would agree that they shouldn’t be; after all, most science is overturned one way or another over time. Retraction should be reserved for the most severe cases. That doesn’t mean irreproducible papers shouldn’t be somehow marked, though. Here’s a fresh example of a study that turned out not to be reproducible, because the results couldn’t be replicated: as [Ben Goldacre relates in BuzzFeed](http://www.buzzfeed.com/bengoldacre/deworming-trials), two economists published a [massive study in 2004](http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2004.00481.x) claiming that a “deworm everyone” approach in Kenya “improved children’s health, school performance, and school attendance,” even among children several miles away who didn’t get deworming pills. [Endorsed by the World Health Organization](http://www.who.int/elena/titles/deworming/en/), it helped set policy that affects hundreds of millions of children annually in the developing world. But now researchers have published [papers](http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyv127) describing two [failures](http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyv128) to replicate the original findings. Many of them just didn’t hold up, although some did. That, as Goldacre explains, “is definitely problematic.” But the reanalyses were possible only because the original authors “had the decency, generosity, strength of character, and intellectual confidence to let someone else peer under the bonnet” – a [rare situation indeed](http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jama.2014.9646). **The fixes** Researchers are aware of the reproducibility problem, and some are trying to fix it. In response to alarming findings about the reproducibility of [basic cancer research](http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/483531a), a program called the [Reproducibility Initiative](http://validation.scienceexchange.com/#/reproducibility-initiative) has started providing “both a mechanism for scientists to independently replicate their findings and a reward for doing so.” It’s [chosen 50 studies for independent validation](http://blog.scienceexchange.com/2012/08/the-reproducibility-initiative/) – or not, since there’s certainly a chance the initial results won’t be reproducible. Those working on the project will perform the same kind of analyses that researchers did in the worm study replications. A similar effort has been [ongoing in psychology](https://osf.io/ezcuj/wiki/home/), and other projects are under way in the [social sciences](http://www.bitss.org/). All of these efforts will require scientists to share data, as the authors of the deworming study did. That has been a requirement in human studies for some years now, by [many funders](http://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/research/funding/human-subjects/data-sharing), and it’s [encouraged by many journal editors](http://www.icmje.org/recommendations/browse/publishing-and-editorial-issues/clinical-trial-registration.html). And while it’s not met 100% of the time, [compliance is growing](http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMsa1409364). Some basic science journals are [moving to make it a requirement](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/26/science/journal-science-releases-guidelines-for-publishing-scientific-studies.html?%5Fr=0), too. Perhaps more important, however, is that researchers – and the public that funds many of them – realize that science is a process, and that all knowledge is provisional. “It’s not just naive to expect that all research will be perfectly free from errors,” writes Goldacre, “it’s actively harmful.” [Journalists, take note](http://www.vox.com/2015/3/23/8264355/research-study-hype). Translated into policy, that means valuing replication efforts, which right now are essentially unfunded and hardly ever published. If we want scientists to validate others’ work, we’ll need to create grants to do that. That means digging up additional funding, but replicating a study costs a tiny fraction of what the original work does. Funding new studies based on those that turn out to be irreproducible…well, now that’s expensive. _This_ [_article_](https://theconversation.com/half-of-biomedical-research-studies-dont-stand-up-to-scrutiny-and-what-we-need-to-do-about-that-45149) _originally appeared on_ [_The Conversation_](http://theconversation.com) ## Transcript [ MUSIC ] We have some good news for you. [ MUSIC ] Close up far away. Close up. Far away. Call Zoey Zion. Zoey. Close up. Come on! Come on! I wasn't, I wasn't always like this. When I was two, I had to get my hands cut off because I was sick. [ MUSIC ] I don't know what a child's hand looks like. It could be this color. Or this color, I don't know. Okay. Make a muscle. Over here. Let me see how strong you are. We have followed Zion for probably about a year and a half now. And done extensive evaluations to see if he was a good candidate for a hand transplant. So, when I get these hands, I will be proud of what hands I get. I will be proud. I will be too. Yeah, cuz they're going to be your new hands. Are you excited? And if it gets messed up, It's not going to get messed up. Are you excited? I don't care, because I have my family. [ MUSIC ] As far as we know, it's never been even attempted in a child. One of the things that's unique about Zion is that he already had kidney transplants. He's on medication for rejection. And so essentially we could piggyback off of that same medication. Our concerns about doing these hand transplants in anybody is that once you do it, the patient has to stay on lifelong medication So they don't reject. And those medications increase the risk of infection and they also increase your risk of having some cancer develop later on in life. And so for a child that's a very, very difficult decision. Stand up straight, let me see your arm. Now I want you to make a fist for me. Make a fist. Good relax. When I met Zion I said why do you want hands? Zion why do you want hands? He's very, very intelligent young man. Said I want to swing on the monkey bars. My grandmother said I'm smarter than a lot of grownups. I'm really smarter than a lot of grownups. [ BLANK_AUDIO ] You know, that's sort of a milestone for a lot of kids, and why shouldn't he be like another child? And, you know, our hope is over time that, indeed, he'll be able to do that. And that's a TV camera. He wants to know if he's on TV. This is just like another hurdle that he jumps. How can I There is no me. He jumped so many hurdles, he's so amazing. This isn't the first amazing thing that he's done. He's been doing amazing things since he's been sick. I don't know many adults that could handle half of his life on a day to day basis. Like sometimes I just think some of my classmates they don't mean to say mean things to me, but it just slips out. So either somebody says something to me and then I just figure it slipped out and they didn't mean to say it. Everybody has their own way of thinking things. Each year, there are only 15 children, based on the databases, that would even be eligible to donate hands. And then it comes down to the organ procurement organizations approaching families at a terrible time, the loss of a child. Let's just stop and think about that. So, the fact that he was put on the waiting list for hands in April and three months later, this came along. That in and of itself was a remarkable story. [ MUSIC ] Chrissy called me and she's like okay we have a match. I'm like stop playing Chrissy. She's like no I'm serious. [ MUSIC ] We have about 12 surgeons and a whole Bevy of nurses, at least eight nurses circling in and out. And then a team of anesthesiologists. I think at least three or four of them that'll be working throughout the nights. So, it's a large team. There's an expression in surgery. Preparation is the only short cut you need. And particularly in surgery, and in highly complex operations, we prepare. [ MUSIC ] [ SOUND ] [ MUSIC ] So, we're about to get started. Zion's just come in to the room. And they're starting to put intravenous lines in and get ready for the surgery. We'll prepare the donor limbs and the recipient sites. And then do the actual transplantation. So, expect to be here all night, but hopefully at the end we'll have two hands on two arms. Okay. Hi. Good to see you, doctor. How are you? Ready? Good. [ INAUDIBLE ] We've rehearsed. We know our steps. We know each other. We know what we have to do today. And I think everybody assembled here has committed to this patient and making this a reality for this little boy. We can have complications. We can fail. We can have troubles. But we're not planning on it. So, everybody is familiar with their particular role. And I just want to say in advance, we'll do our best and we're all here together. [ MUSIC ] This is a new arena of reconstructive surgery. It's a new arena in transplant surgery. Now this gives new hope, not only to the adults, but particularly children. And there are ethical issues and questions about the implications for that, but that deceased child's hands and expression, if you will, will live on in Zion. And that's a pretty profound thing when you You think about it. [ BLANK_AUDIO ] In the beginning of the operation, we actually had four teams operating at the same time, and each of them had specific things they were supposed to do. So they had to find all the structures, put pre- made tags on them for every single structure that we'd have to repair, And they would have to sew those onto the nerves, blood vessels, tendons, et cetera. [ MUSIC ] [ SOUND ] It's one thing to sew adult vessels, which in and of themselves are small, and it requires a kind of skill. But the highest echelons of reconstructive microsurgery take place in, in children, small children. And my colleagues who participate in the microvascular aspects of the cure are just the best in the world. We gotta leave those here. So we gotta cut those really short. [ NOISE ] [ INAUDIBLE ] Blood is going across the hook up here and you can see the hand right here is starting to pink up. Do you see the capillary refill? Do you see that? See it's white when I touch it and then it pinks up. And now that's starting to get out to the level of the fingers. How's my baby? Great. He's doing well. Just came out to give you an update. Thank you. So, we've got through a lot so far. Okay. Yeah, we brought this thing down into four different parts. Okay. And we're on this last part here. Mmhm. So, at this point the hands have already been attached so the bones are back together and Dr. Levin and the other microsurgeons are working on putting the arteries and veins together. So We want to really make sure that this was going to work for our patient, and work for a life time, not just a year. For us, this is really not just a technical exercise, it's really trying to restore a better level of life time function for these patients. [ MUSIC ] I think, all of you who know about microsurgery. And, all of you do. Do know that we're not out of the woods and this is sort of, just the first step. And, we have to be very vigilant and we have a whole protocol on how to take care of this little guy. But, from the bottom of my heart, thanks. [ MUSIC ] We have some good news for ya. [ MUSIC ] And your little guy has two hands. [ MUSIC ] Hi Zion. What might we say about Zion Harvey? Be in 10 years or 15 years. What might we say about this? I hope he's the first of literally hundreds or thousands of patients that are going to be afforded this operation. [ MUSIC ] All right. Up, up, up, nice. [ MUSIC ] No hands. [ LAUGH ] That's all you. Don't let me get it. Don't let him take it. I'm gonna get it. It's like a war. [ LAUGH ] He's in no better place than in the children's hospital of Philadelphia to make sure he gets through this and does well. Me and Zoey want a puppy. [ LAUGH ] Where's the puppy gonna live? My room. Where else? 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